2020 US Election (Part Two)

[hobbsyoyo]

I don't see the United States military intervening to extend a Trump administration past its allotted term. For all the terror and destruction wreaked by the US military, both the ranks and the officers seem to take their status as "non-political"- that is, isolated from electoral or partisan politics- quite seriously. The military is simply not politicised in the way it is in countries prone to military coups, and even if we might suspect that senior officer are personally enthusiastic about Trump, it's not evident that they owe him any personal loyalty.

If the military did intervene, it is most likely to be on behalf of a bi-partisan caretaker administration, on behalf of "public order" rather than any particular leadership-figure.

I agree with what @Lexicus said in response to this:

I don't think it will be required. The scenario I envision is more like, the military's intervention will be necessary to end Trump's term, and they won't intervene, leaving the matter to the courts, and (to repeat myself) Trump effectively serves a second term while the litigation drags on for a few years.

I do not see the military instigating or otherwise participating in any coup. I do see the military sidelining itself while Trump grabs the executive illegally.

Someone posted that Trump has a ~50% approval rate for the handling of this crisis before. I have not double checked to see if it is accurate, but if it is, a coup won't be necessary; he is just going to straight up win reelection if half of people genuinely think he's doing a good job.

 

[Lexicus]

I agree with what @Lexicus said in response to this:


I do not see the military instigating or otherwise participating in any coup. I do see the military sidelining itself while Trump grabs the executive illegally.

Someone posted that Trump has a ~50% approval rate for the handling of this crisis before. I have not double checked to see if it is accurate, but if it is, a coup won't be necessary; he is just going to straight up win reelection if half of people genuinely think he's doing a good job.

It's higher than 50. For now.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

It's higher than 50. For now.

Insane. Absolutely insane.

 

[Lexicus]

Insane. Absolutely insane.

Is it really any more insane than him getting elected in the first place? I've found my capacity for surprise has been greatly diminished over the past three years.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Yes it is, if only because the ignorant no longer have any reason to believe that he is up to the job. In 2016, I could almost give the benefit of the doubt to the fraction of voters who really only wanted disruptive change and ignored all the signs that he was criminally corrupt, racist and incompetent. They no longer have that benefit of the doubt.

 

[Lexicus]

Yes it is, if only because the ignorant no longer have any reason to believe that he is up to the job. In 2016, I could almost give the benefit of the doubt to the fraction of voters who really only wanted disruptive change and ignored all the signs that he was criminally corrupt, racist and incompetent. They no longer have that benefit of the doubt.

*Darth Vader voice* "I hope so, Trump voters, for your sake. Hobbs is not as forgiving as I am."

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Why can't I catch my breath? Covid or Darth Lex force choke?

 

[Lexicus]

Wait I kinda reversed what I wanted to say...I meant I'm less forgiving than you are...I never gave them the benefit of the doubt. Trump has been a criminal narcissist his whole adult life, that information was widely available before he became President, and there was no reason to expect he would change after getting elected.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I don't see the United States military intervening to extend a Trump administration past its allotted term. For all the terror and destruction wreaked by the US military, both the ranks and the officers seem to take their status as "non-political"- that is, isolated from electoral or partisan politics- quite seriously. The military is simply not politicised in the way it is in countries prone to military coups, and even if we might suspect that senior officer are personally enthusiastic about Trump, it's not evident that they owe him any personal loyalty.

If the military did intervene, it is most likely to be on behalf of a bi-partisan caretaker administration, on behalf of "public order" rather than any particular leadership-figure.

This. For all their faults, I still believe that the military would uphold the constitution, and the constitution says that without being re-elected Trump moves out on March 20 2021.

 

[Lexicus]

No cooperation even if the country goes straight to hell in a handbasket!

Can you name even a single issue where cooperating with the Republicans doesn't help the country go straight to hell in a handbasket? Everything the Republicans want is bad, without any exceptions I can think of off the top of my head.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Can you name even a single issue where cooperating with the Republicans doesn't help the country go straight to hell in a handbasket? Everything the Republicans want is bad, without any exceptions I can think of off the top of my head.

Raising the debt ceiling. Funding the government. All the normal actions of government that the Freedom Caucus routinely turns into hostage negotiations.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Insane. Absolutely insane.

This whole global pandemic situation is insane... it's the kind of stuff we've watched movies about for years thinking it could never really happen...

So all Trump really needs to happen is for people to survive the pandemic... and voters... especially his supporters will give him a gold star... the expectations on him are so low, that he can get away with pretty much anything at this point.

 

[Patine]

That’s when senile Joseph Biden will ride in on his white horse stuttering and stumbling over his words reading the teleprompter message of neoliberal corporate bailouts conjured up by Perez, Schumer and Pelosi with Obama and Clinton in the back seat.

I'm absolutely astounded by how many people still believe corporate bailouts are a centre-left, neoliberal economic policy. They're not! The thought is ridiculous. In terms of mechanism, motive, agenda, and long-term end result, they're a hard right, plutocratic, corporatist plank. They keep the rich rich, and serve the rich, and only help everyone else in the short-term (and even in the short-term, not nearly as many others as one might think, because layoffs and downsizing - that never hurt shareholder, executives, or upper management - always occur as well)

 

[Patine]

He literally suggested having a member of the GOP as his vp, Like i don't know man, what are we supposed to make of this?

Well, I don't know what to make of a lot of Americans - with a straight face and total sincerity and belief, portraying the political rivalry between the two major political parties in the U.S. as an "epic of good vs. evil." That really gobsmacks me. How did so many people get starting thinking in such a ridiculous and off-the-rails way of viewing things?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Someone posted that Trump has a ~50% approval rate for the handling of this crisis before. I have not double checked to see if it is accurate, but if it is, a coup won't be necessary; he is just going to straight up win reelection if half of people genuinely think he's doing a good job.

If the election was today, maybe, but it isn't. Humans are human, and totally predictable. Whether you are with a half dozen people in a bar when a fight breaks out or the place catches fire, or with 350 million people in a country when a building blows up or a pandemic strikes, the same thing will happen. The initial response will be "who is in charge thank god it's not me." That translates automatically into an approval spike for whoever has the guts or the lack of options to wind up in charge. It's the theory behind "wag the dog" military operations in an election year, it accounts for GWBush's extraordinary approval ratings after 9/11, and it is the reason D'ump has taken to referring to himself as a "wartime president."

But the most important thing to understand about that human response is that it never lasts. In the 20/20 vision of hindsight whoever took charge is revealed to have made bad split second decisions, always. Taking charge invariably brings along responsibility, and since the situation was bad to start with whoever took charge will end up with the blame for every bad outcome unless they miraculously prevent any bad outcomes for anyone. Even the most faithful Trumpists, if confronted by a dead family member or having to stand in a bread line, will have a hard time saying how great his performance was.

Well, I don't know what to make of a lot of Americans - with a straight face and total sincerity and belief, portraying the political rivalry between the two major political parties in the U.S. as an "epic of good vs. evil." That really gobsmacks me. How did so many people get starting thinking in such a ridiculous and off-the-rails way of viewing things?

That would be incredibly strange...if it were actually happening. Most people are pretty convinced that one party or the other will do a better job of running the country, but I don't really see a lot of serious "good v evil" in the presentations, generally. Things get a bit hyperbolic, but campaigning is, ultimately, a marketing exercise and hyperbole is to marketing like fish are to aquariums.

 

[cardgame]

Most people also have literally NO coherent political ideology, so... the bar that 'most people' applies to is disgustingly low.

 

[Zkribbler]

That’s when senile Joseph Biden will ride in on his white horse stuttering and stumbling over his words reading the teleprompter message of neoliberal corporate bailouts conjured up by Perez, Schumer and Pelosi with Obama and Clinton in the back seat.

Geez, these same Dems just sunk the GOP coronas virus bill because it was a thinly veiled corporate bailout and pork fest.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Geez, these same Dems just sunk the GOP coronas virus bill because it was a thinly veiled corporate bailout and pork fest.

Don't try to interfere with his "reality."

 

[Zardnaar]

Trump probably needs to adopt the Democrats plan. He can and will claim credit for it.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Trump probably needs to adopt the Democrats plan. He can and will claim credit for it.

There's no obvious payoff in it though, and without a connection to his own pockets he's not all that interested in doing anything here. We know that "give the treasury secretary half a trillion to do as he sees fit with" is going to result in a billion or so slushing to Trump, so cutting that out or getting him to take the Democrats' bill instead will be really hard.