Den Valdron
King
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2008
- Messages
- 834
Well, the usual pissing match is all very interesting.
But I think its worth it to throw in a few observations.
1) The Basra situation seems to have stabilized into a situation of somewhat settled instability. The parties down there all seem to be abiding by the truce. Mostly. We're not hearing reports of continuing fighting between any set of players.
2) Things may not be completely stable. There are now reports of attacks on Southern pipelines. Since oil smuggling and tapping the pipelines is a major source of revenue for the southern gangs and militias this seems significant. In the past, the southern oil infrastructure has been safe because the players were making money from corruption, and didn't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The attacks now suggest that there's a struggle both for control of the 'underground oil economy' and perhaps an ongoing covert struggle between the players. One that might boil over again, suddenly, if someone screws up, makes a misjudgement or shows weakness. Still, if I had to guess, I think Basra is holding its breath and waiting for the issue to be decided elsewhere.
3) If Basra is stable, Baghdad is anything but. But there is considerable confusion when you look more closely. The Green Zone is under almost constant attack from mortars and rockets. Interestingly, no culprit is identified. I'm not seeing press releases or announcements or speeches from American generals or politicians blaming Sadr for the campaign against the Green Zone. They don't actually seem to be identifying anyone... except for the Iranians. This in itself strikes me as peculiar
4) For his part, Sadr himself appears equally weirdly cagey. He denounces and threatens war against the American forces. But at the same time, he refuses to threaten war against the Iraqi army or Maliki's government, both of which he makes overtures too. There seems to be some political triangulation going on.
5) The United States appears to be involved in some sort of slow motion campaign or incursion into Sadr City in Baghdad..... with resulting flare ups and low intensity fighting. It seems to be working, or at least, I have some impression of penetration into some districts of Sadr city. Backing the American action, and perhaps putting an Iraqi face on it, are Iraqi military, primarily 'uniformed up' members of the Badr Brigades.
6) Maliki, for his part, seems to be doing the same pussyfooting as all the rest of the players. He's not acknowledging the campaign upon Sadr City at all. Instead, he seems to focus on his political maneuverings against Sadr. It seems that he wants to avoid being in the centre of another set of crosshairs. The Basra campaign may have cost him politically.
So, to summarise - Everyone is holding their breath in Basra, Someone is bombing the Green Zone but we're pretending we don't know who, Sadr is threatening open war with the United States army but pretending that has nothing to do with the Iraq government, the United States is invading Sadr City, but pretending its not. And Maliki is focusing on his politics and pretending none of the rest is going on.
Why do I have the feeling that somewhere in the background, a country and western singer with an old time band is about to call "Turn around and switch your partners, doesy doo, that's the square dance."
But I think its worth it to throw in a few observations.
1) The Basra situation seems to have stabilized into a situation of somewhat settled instability. The parties down there all seem to be abiding by the truce. Mostly. We're not hearing reports of continuing fighting between any set of players.
2) Things may not be completely stable. There are now reports of attacks on Southern pipelines. Since oil smuggling and tapping the pipelines is a major source of revenue for the southern gangs and militias this seems significant. In the past, the southern oil infrastructure has been safe because the players were making money from corruption, and didn't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. The attacks now suggest that there's a struggle both for control of the 'underground oil economy' and perhaps an ongoing covert struggle between the players. One that might boil over again, suddenly, if someone screws up, makes a misjudgement or shows weakness. Still, if I had to guess, I think Basra is holding its breath and waiting for the issue to be decided elsewhere.
3) If Basra is stable, Baghdad is anything but. But there is considerable confusion when you look more closely. The Green Zone is under almost constant attack from mortars and rockets. Interestingly, no culprit is identified. I'm not seeing press releases or announcements or speeches from American generals or politicians blaming Sadr for the campaign against the Green Zone. They don't actually seem to be identifying anyone... except for the Iranians. This in itself strikes me as peculiar
4) For his part, Sadr himself appears equally weirdly cagey. He denounces and threatens war against the American forces. But at the same time, he refuses to threaten war against the Iraqi army or Maliki's government, both of which he makes overtures too. There seems to be some political triangulation going on.
5) The United States appears to be involved in some sort of slow motion campaign or incursion into Sadr City in Baghdad..... with resulting flare ups and low intensity fighting. It seems to be working, or at least, I have some impression of penetration into some districts of Sadr city. Backing the American action, and perhaps putting an Iraqi face on it, are Iraqi military, primarily 'uniformed up' members of the Badr Brigades.
6) Maliki, for his part, seems to be doing the same pussyfooting as all the rest of the players. He's not acknowledging the campaign upon Sadr City at all. Instead, he seems to focus on his political maneuverings against Sadr. It seems that he wants to avoid being in the centre of another set of crosshairs. The Basra campaign may have cost him politically.
So, to summarise - Everyone is holding their breath in Basra, Someone is bombing the Green Zone but we're pretending we don't know who, Sadr is threatening open war with the United States army but pretending that has nothing to do with the Iraq government, the United States is invading Sadr City, but pretending its not. And Maliki is focusing on his politics and pretending none of the rest is going on.
Why do I have the feeling that somewhere in the background, a country and western singer with an old time band is about to call "Turn around and switch your partners, doesy doo, that's the square dance."
C'mon, a little logic goes along way 
