Dark blue: European Confederation ("The Bund")
Lighter shades of blue: aligned to the Bund by treaties
(Turkey, Romania, and Greece formed a close Balkan Pact)
Light blue in Ukraine: states loyal to federal government, pro-Europe
Light orange in Ukraine: states effectively controlled from Moscow
Red: signatories of the Toulon Declaration of the Defence of European National Heritage
Europe 2030
The world economic situation rapidly worsened in the latter half of 2014 after the stock market crashes of Black October as confidence plummets worldwide.
Ukraine, after two years of insurgency in its eastern and southern oblasts was forced to hold peace talks under Russian "mediation", and as part of the settlement became a federation. Soon the governments of all but the three western states were taken over by Moscow-aligned parties, in many cases after opponents were intimidated into silence, and the federal government effectively ceased to have any control over these states.
The Scottish independence referendum was rejected with a narrow enough margin to escalate controversy. Pro-independence activists vowed never to give up until a free Scotland is declared. Labour was elected in 2015, promising a stronger and fairer union as Britain is pummeled by worsening economic woes. A massive restructuring of the government was launched, culminating in the transformation of the United Kingdom into a federation, signed into law by the Queen in one of her last acts.
Spain collapsed. Catalonia unilaterally declared independence in 2017. Madrid refused to recognise this, resulting in a standoff that rapidly escalated when Spanish troops fired upon rioters in Barcelona, killing hundreds. After this the government was overthrown, and the transitional government promised a referendum in each region for greater autonomy. When it finally came after many years delay Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Navarre voted for independence, and Valencia, Andalusia, Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, and the Canarias for a federal state.
Syriza finally triumphed in Greece, and over the next few years it played host to an experiment to implement a new kind of democratic socialist state. It was not notably successful. Erdogan died from alcohol poisoning (or was smothered in his sleep; there are many theories) after many years of increasingly deranged rule. After his death a strange thing happened; Turkey started to liberalise. A "Quiet Revolution" took place as the country and her people seemed to beaome much more surer of themselves. The new government reconciled with the Armenians and the Kurds, and forged a friendship with the fledging socialist government of Greece. A devastating earthquake that levelled much of Thessaloniki and Turkey's assistance afterwards helped. As of the time of writing, an agreement was finally concluded to resolve the Cyprus dispute.
Front National meanwhile went from strength to strength. Le Pen came second in the 2017 Presidential vote, losing to Sarkozy, but this further emboldened the far-right. Racial and political tension rose with a worsening economy. In the summer of 2020 young Frenchmen of Maghrebi origin rioted; FN thugs seized it as an excuse to launched a wholesale campaign of terror against socialists and immigrants, prompting many of them to flee abroad. Sarkozy was seen as ineffective in keeping order. With the left emasculated and the center-right discredited, Le Pen won the 2022 presidential election. A socialist protest in Paris in 2024 against the FN government's increasing authoritarianism was brutally crushed, and Le Pen declared the end of the Fifth Republic to thunderous applause.
The year after, France announced her withdrawal from the European Union.
With the departure of its second-most powerful member, the EU already reeling from economic crises was faced with collapse. Reforms implemented slowly over the past few years to democratise the EU was accelerated. Over the next five years the EU reformed itself into the European Confederation, comprising Germany and its neighbours. Italy, the Iberian states, and the Balkan states bar Hungary and Bulgaria (the former ruled by fascists allied with France, the latter ruled by fascists allied with Russia) along with Turkey negotiated a new treaty with the Confederation to replace the defunct Union.