Tuesday, October 31, 1962 – The Last Day
12:37 AM – Orders go out to the Strategic Rocket Forces, PVO air defense, and Long-Range aviation. The attack is to commence in three hours. Soviet bombers, already at the ready, begin to take to the air, while ICBMs begin spinning up their gyroscopes and begin receiving location and targeting information.
1:32 AM – Having misinterpreted the preparation order, the Soviet commander on the northern flank of the invasion of Germany issues an order allowing for local commanders to use tactical nuclear weapons as they deem appropriate.
1:46 AM – British and Dutch forces defending the embattled city of Hamburg are vaporized as a spread of six tactical nuclear weapons is employed in a semicircle around the city. British forces respond with their own nuclear weapons to stem the resulting Soviet breakthrough. Losses on both sides are massive, and at least one detonation takes place in the city itself, causing enormous civilian casualties.
1:58 AM – A radio broadcast, reportedly by Ludwig Erhard, Vice Chancellor of West Germany, is picked up by radios across the front. The message calls for an immediate cease-fire and says that the government of West Germany will surrender unconditionally to the Soviet Union in exchange for a suspension of nuclear and chemical attacks in West German territory. The message repeats several times before suddenly cutting off. No official contact with the West German government has been made since the early hours of the Soviet attack, when Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was presumed killed in a Red Army Faction assault on his armored limousine. The broadcast is not taken seriously by either side, and fighting continues.
2:07 AM – Informed of the events near Hamburg, and informed by his military advisors of an increasing number of radar contacts near the Soviet Union, Kennedy authorizes the use of American nuclear weapons in a “forward defense” role, similar to the strategy already employed by Prime Minister McMillan.
2:12 AM – Three 10 kiloton nuclear artillery rounds land in a Soviet staging area west of Hannover, presumably fired by elements of the US V Corps. Soviet commanders on the scene respond with nuclear artillery fire of their own on the position from which the rounds were launched. These, in turn, are responded to by nuclear-tipped Corporal rockets launched by US Army forces nearby. In total, the series of stroke-counterstroke-counter-counterstroke and so forth will encompass 17 warheads in the span of 42 minutes. These all fall within 15 miles of the front.
2:17 AM – After several hours of fighting, embattled Soviet forces reach the Bin-Charlottenburg U-Bahn station in the heart of West Berlin, cutting the combined American, British, and French contingent in two. For the time being, the Soviet strategy will consist of reducing the southern, largely American half of West Berlin, while lighter forces hold the British and French brigades in place. Multiple armored columns attempt to move from the Zossen area into the central portion of the city in an effort to quarter West Berlin, but are stopped near the Papester U-Bahn station by hastily-placed mines and ferocious antitank fire.
2:34 AM – President Kennedy is once again contacted by Prime Minister McMillan, who informs him that if the situation continues to deteriorate, he will order a first-strike nuclear attack on Soviet-captured airfields in Norway and bomber bases in the Kola Peninsula. Kennedy attempts to talk McMillan out of the approach, calling it “insanely dangerous,” but is interrupted by a string of messages about the nuclear fighting in Germany. As he reads through the messages, Bobby Kennedy, who has remained with JFK in Washington, remarks, “Well, there’s only one thing left to do now, John.”
No sooner has he uttered the words when another officer enters, bringing word that a large number of Soviet bombers have been detected by radar at Thule Air Force Base in Greenland and by radar stations in Alaska. Though the aircraft have not yet crossed into Canadian or American airspace, they have continued on their headings for several minutes, and given the large number of aircraft, the Joint Chiefs of Staff believe this to be a major Soviet attack.
Silence falls in the White House’s situation room. After several moments, Kennedy orders fighters to intercept any bombers that cross the border. When clarification is requested, Kennedy furiously responds, “That means shoot the damn things down – I don’t care what you use, but those aircraft are not to reach the United States!” When asked by Gen. LeMay, Commander in Chief of the Strategic Air Command, if this means he is free to execute SIOP-63, the nuclear plan for action against the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Kennedy hesitates. Not yet, he declares softly, clearly unsure. “I want to see what they do next,” he says over the crackling line to Omaha, where LeMay is guiding his bombers to their Fail-Safe positions.
LeMay responds heatedly, demanding that they not wait until the bombs are falling on the United States, and Kennedy fires back with harsh words of his own, saying that he will not risk nuclear war. LeMay fires back with a barb of his own – “Mister President, in case you haven’t noticed, the people of Eufala and Key West might argue differently!” The truth of the words take Kennedy aback – has he been looking so intently at the big picture that he might have been willing to sacrifice the country one small piece at a time? Quietly, he agrees to LeMay’s suggestion that should a nuclear attack take place anywhere in North America, he will be free to release the bombers to their missions.
With the issue settled, Kennedy hangs up the phone, and begins to address the next crisis in a long list of them. In Omaha, LeMay is handed an extensive list of bomber dispositions and fuel states, and with a sinking feeling, realizes that if he does not issue a go order in the next 15 minutes, nearly 20% of his bomber force will need to turn back for refueling. Many bombers have been holding at Fail-Safe for far longer than was planned, and many are now on the edge of being able to perform their missions and return to North America, let alone their staging airfields.
While one-way missions are only to be expected, 20 percent is a large proportion of the force in the air, and that will be on top of a large number of bombers that have already cycled back from Fail-Safe or are only now returning to it. Those bombers will be needed for follow-up strikes, and they cannot be thrown away, LeMay believes. Quietly, he hopes that the issue will be decided soon.
2:48 AM – A battery of Soviet surface-to-surface missiles launches an attack on a suspected NATO special weapons depot in central Germany. Six Soviet nuclear weapons devastate the area, destroying a stockpile of Corporal missile reloads. Over 60 NATO nuclear warheads are destroyed. Unfortunately for the Soviet Union, there are over 5,000 NATO-controlled nuclear warheads still in Western Europe.
The attack creates a crisis in the NATO command. British, Belgian, and Dutch commanders, with Prime Minister McMillan chiming in from an underground bunker in Wales, demand immediate action against Soviet airfields and known fixed missile positions in Eastern Europe. The threat is clear, they declare to Gen. Norstad – the Soviet Union is clearly on course to escalate the conflict, and the more nuclear weapons NATO destroys, the fewer that can be launched against Western Europe. When Norstad counters that he does not have the freedom to launch nuclear weapons without the authorization of the President, McMillan replies that Kennedy’s orders of “forward defense” cover this situation, and that by not attacking, Norstad is violating Kennedy’s orders, not following them.
Norstad attempts to find a compromise solution, but there is none. McMillan announces his intention to use Britain’s nuclear capability, with or without Norstad’s assistance – but without Norstad’s help, the effectiveness of the attack will be greatly lessened. Norstad is torn – on one hand, Kennedy’s instructions to him were to avoid widening the war whenever possible, but on the other, nuclear war has clearly broken out. He cannot risk splitting NATO in wartime. If he didn’t go along with McMillan, and the war ended tomorrow, could NATO survive America throwing England to the Soviets in its darkest hour? No, he decided. It couldn’t. Reluctantly, he agrees to McMillan’s plan, but requests some time to coordinate his forces. Communications are growing more and more difficult, thanks to Soviet attacks, telephone lines being cut, and the increased radio interference caused by the nuclear detonations. “Time,” McMillan replies, “is something we do not have much of at the moment.”
2:50 AM – In Omaha, SAC commander Gen. Curtis LeMay is facing a similar conundrum. If he does not issue the go order immediately, his bomber force will lose a substantial portion of its strength for at least three hours. On the other hand, if he does issue the go-order, it might trigger a full-scale nuclear war, not just the little one in Cuba and Germany.
After a conference call to NORAD headquarters at Cheyenne Mountain, he issues the order. The Soviet aircraft approaching Canada and Alaska have not turned back, so his decision is the obvious one. Unless a full recall is issued, his aircraft are to continue on to Russia and destroy their targets. Though they’ve used up all their loiter time, the bombers on the edge should still have enough fuel in their tanks to hit their targets and crash-land somewhere in North America – barring battle damage. And of course, if the Soviet bombers turn back, they can always be recalled. But as LeMay looks at the situation board, deep underground, that doesn’t seem likely.
2:53 AM – As the Moscow Plotters settle into bunkers across the Soviet Union, the final order is given – perhaps by all, perhaps by only some. Transmitted by landline, the men of the Strategic Rocket Force receive their final orders and prepare to launch. Due to the patchwork nature of the coup, the precise coordination of the Strategic Rocket Force is not fully imitated among Red Army-controlled launch facilities in Eastern Europe. Approximately 40 percent of the Red Army’s IRBM and MRBM facilities fail to acknowledge the initial order. Many will eventually launch at targets in Western Europe, but many more will be destroyed by the NATO counter-stroke.
2:55 AM – At missile sites in Central Asia, missile erectors raise themselves to an upright position and fire. Similarly, eight concrete missile silos blow their rocket-propelled hatches clear and fire their missiles. In total, 20 of the Soviet Union’s October 1962 total of 26 ICBMs will reach their targets. Two explode either during launch or shortly after. Three break up on reentry, due to manufacturing defects or navigation malfunctions. One will suffer a gyroscope error and will impact in north-central Montana, incinerating the village of Hays, Montana (population 486 in 1962). The other twenty will proceed to their targets, unnoticed for the first ten minutes of a scheduled 33-minute flight time.
Eight of the missiles will be SS-6 Sapwood missiles (two of the ten in service are down for maintenance and will not be available at the time of launch) launched from Baikonur and Plesetsk. Plesetsk will launch seven, and Baikonur only one, with three of the failed missiles coming from Plesetsk. Ironically, these missiles are the same ones that launched Sputnik into space.
The other twenty missiles launched will be SS-7 Saddler missiles, launched from soft (non-silo) positions. Due to the newer nature of the missiles, only three of the twenty will fail in flight, a far lower percentage than the primitive SS-6s. As they launch, curving northward from their launchers in Central Asia, they will proceed undetected, below the horizon, for nearly a third of their flight.
At T+11 minutes, they will be picked up by the Ballistic Missile Early Warning radar station at Clear, Alaska. That station will likely also be dealing with several IRBMs inbound to points in Alaska, possibly even at the station itself. A full regiment of IRBMs will launch from bases near Anadyr, in the Soviet Far East, with the goal of knocking out Alaskan air defenses and opening a hole through which Soviet bombers can pass. Despite that distraction, standing orders dictate that missiles higher above the horizon (likely to be targeted on the United States proper) have priority. A warning will be flashed to NORAD and Washington.
At T+12 minutes, they will be picked up by the third and final BMEWS at Thule, Greenland, which should detect the missiles as they cross the horizon and arc over the North Pole. Further warnings will be issued, but NORAD will already be well aware of the situation.
At T+14 minutes, they will be detected by the RAF’s Ballistic Missile Early Warning radar at Flylingdales, in the UK. That station, monitoring several hundred IRBMs in flight over Europe, may easily miss the ICBM tracks inbound to the United States and Canada. If not, they will immediately pass a warning on to NORAD, which will further the information to Washington, D.C.
President Kennedy, upon hearing the news, will want to issue a full-scale civil defense alert, but the highest level of alert – that of a Civil Defense Air Emergency – has already been issued 24 hours earlier. The attacks from Cuba have already put Americans at a higher state of alert than any government warning could provide, but the last-minute alert, issued at T+17 minutes, causes many in urban centers to begin fleeing in their automobiles at high speed towards the countryside. Kennedy himself will refuse evacuation, instead ordering that his brother be pushed onto the helicopter and escorted to Mount Weather. JFK has no desire to see what tomorrow will bring, or to live with the knowledge that he helped cause a nuclear war. Either way – a postwar impeachment, trial, and execution, or a nuclear detonation – would no doubt kill him just as dead.
At T+22, the missiles will disappear from the radar screens at the BMEWS facilities. Their radars only point in one direction, and cannot track the missiles to their ultimate targets, nor do they have the processing power to analyze where the missiles might hit. They only serve to warn, and with their jobs done, they wait to be annihilated themselves. They won’t have long to wait.
At T+29, the missiles may begin to become visible to Canadians and Americans looking skyward. The night sky will provide a brilliant backdrop to the fiery streaks of the reentry vehicles, which should shoot across the stars like meteors.
Between T+30 and T+35, all 20 will impact within the United States and Canada. It is unlikely that any will be targeted on sites in Western Europe, as these are well within the range of IRBM and MRBM launched from Eastern Europe and western Russia. Nor is it likely that the missiles will be fired at American missile silos, since these early Soviet missiles lack the accuracy to reliably knock out hardened targets. Exceptions will likely be made in the cases of Cheyenne Mountain and Offut AFB in Omaha, the headquarters of SAC, but these will likely be the only exceptions. The missiles will also not be targeted at early-warning radars or interceptor bases – no one in the world had the capability to shoot down an ICBM at the time, and the most the United States can do is watch as the missiles streak in. Theoretically, a nuclear-tipped BOMARC or Nike Zeus missile could destroy an incoming ICBM, but that would require a level of coordination with radar and computer-aided guidance not available in 1962.
In the end, likely targets include soft military bases, command posts, and major population centers. These Soviet missiles lack the accuracy for anything else. This is somewhat countered by a 3.5Mt warhead, but even a near miss will leave buried targets intact.
As Soviet targeting data is not yet available – nor will it likely ever be – I can only guess at what twenty targets will be destroyed. Still, here is a list of what I think will be targeted, how many missiles will be used on the target (where necessary) and a justification of why. Note that a tally of the missiles will reach 26. This is intentional. Six of the targets listed below will survive or receive one fewer missile.
• Washington, D.C. (3 missiles)
This is the most critical target in the United States, beyond even Cheyenne Mountain. It’s the peacetime center of the government, and the immense blow to American pride and prestige, as well as the confusion and chaos its destruction will create is immense, and will not be overlooked. One missile for the Pentagon, Capitol Hill, and the White House. It’s overkill, but the target is of great enough importance that given the inaccuracy of the Soviet missiles, three will be needed to ensure completion. End result: Lake Washington.
• Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado (2 missiles)
Wartime headquarters of NORAD, this bunker is entombed within the mountain. While it’s not likely to be destroyed, given the inaccuracy of the weapons used against it, it will likely be knocked off line by detonations close by that will rupture cables and communications, disconnecting it for some time from the defense of North America. Suspended within the mountain on enormous springs and shock absorbers, the bunker will be tossed around, and injuries and possible deaths will result. Imagine being inside an earthquake, underground. Even ground-bursting weapons – these will likely not detonate until they hit the ground, unlike weapons used against soft targets, which explode at 5,000-10,000 feet to ensure maximum destruction – should not destroy the base, as a direct hit is not likely. End result: Broken bones for those inside, massive wildfires, NORAD HQ knocked offline for several hours to several weeks.
• Offut AFB, Omaha, Nebraska (2 missiles)
This is the headquarters of the Strategic Air Command, and where Gen. Curtis LeMay, CINC-SAC, will be located during the fighting. The base and city nearby will be utterly destroyed, and the bunker below has a good chance of being knocked out as well, but little is known about it, due to the fact that it is an active command, not retired like Cheyenne Mountain. End result: Omaha and Offut destroyed, SAC HQ knocked offline for several hours to several weeks.
• Syracuse, New York
One of the three centers for the SAGE (Semi Automatic Ground Environment) system, the SAGE system is what makes NORAD work. State-of-the-art computer systems, tied in to the three early-warning radar lines and interceptor bases across Canada, as well as links to ships at sea and aircraft in the air, enable the SAGE system to vector individual fighters to individual bombers as they are detected in flight. This is a massively complicated system of coordination, roughly similar to the British sector stations during the Blitz, but far more advanced. Syracuse’s SAGE Combat Center is located above-ground, in a giant facility with a four-story video screen and half an acre of computers. End result: Syracuse destroyed, Syracuse SAGE Combat Center offline.
• North Bay, Ontario
This is the third of the three (the first being Cheyenne Mountain) main SAGE Combat Centers in North America. Located 700 feet underground, it can survive a nearby hit. However, due to the fragility of computers at the time, and the need to have near-instantaneous communication with fighter bases and radar stations across Canada, even a near-miss will be disastrous. With all three main SAGE Combat Centers destroyed or knocked off line, the backup BUIC (Back Up Interceptor Control) units will take over, but at a reduced rate of effectiveness. End result: North Bay destroyed, SAGE center crippled.
• Groton/New London, Connecticut
Groton is the headquarters of the United States’ submarine fleet, and is of critical importance in that it is a soft target that houses nuclear weapons – ballistic missile submarines. While all of these will be at sea, the destruction of the Groton/New London submarine base will destroy a large number of warheads waiting to be transferred onto submarines, will destroy the large submarine construction facility located there, the training facility located there, and possibly any submarines unable to sail away, due to drydocking or other problems. End result: New London and Groton destroyed, several submarines sunk, submarine yards destroyed, SSBN (Strategic Submarine, Ballistic, Nuclear) reloading capability reduced.
• Charleston, South Carolina
In addition to being the largest city in the state of South Carolina, Charleston was at the time home to the Charleston Navy Yard, one of the largest ports of the United States Navy, and a major home port for several ballistic missile submarines. Though all are at sea at this point in the hostilities, the destruction of Charleston will greatly reduce the effectiveness of the Atlantic Fleet and hurt the resupply efforts of any ballistic missile submarines that survive their initial attacks. In addition, Charleston has great historical value and a medium-sized shipbuilding industry. End result: Charleston destroyed, economy of South Carolina crippled, loss of Charleston Naval Base, several ships sunk.
• Norfolk, Virginia (2 missiles)
Norfolk is the largest American naval base on the East Coast. It is the home port to the vast majority of the United States’ Atlantic Fleet, and is the site of a very large shipbuilding industry located in Norfolk and nearby Newport News. At least one aircraft carrier will be in drydock at the time, and a large stockpile of naval nuclear weapons is at the base. In addition, Naval Air Station Oceana is close by, as is the Marine Amphibious base at Little Creek, Langley Air Force Base, and Yorktown Weapons Depot. End result: With one detonation on the north side of Hampton Roads, and another on the south side, both Newport News and Norfolk will be completely obliterated, as will all the naval, marine, and Air Force bases in the area. NAS Oceana, furthest to the east, will suffer heavy damage, but may not be totally destroyed, due to its distance from Norfolk. Virginia Beach will suffer light damage.
• San Diego, California
San Diego is one of the largest cities in California, and is also the home of one of the largest naval bases on the West Coast. It is the home to Miramar, training facility for pilots of the US Marine Corps, and Coronado is home to one of the two training facilities of the US Navy Seals. In addition, North Island Naval Air Station has a large contingent of aircraft. End result: A blast over the harbor will obliterate Coronado, North Island, and anything in port, as well as damaging Mischer Field at Miramar and destroying the city. Nearby Camp Pendleton is out of the blast zone, but may suffer broken windows, depending on atmospheric conditions at the time of the blast.
• Tucson, Arizona
In 1962, Tucson was still a small town, but also home to Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, site of the Air Force’s “boneyard,” a storage facility for unused aircraft and a major repair facility. In addition, Tucson was also home to the 12th Strategic Aerospace Division, a combined force of missiles and bombers. Today, it’s home of the only preserved Titan Missile silo. End result: Tucson, Davis-Monthan completely destroyed. Surrounding missile silos remain intact, however, as these are scattered in the hills south of the town.
• Barksdale AFB, Bossier City, Louisiana
Bossier City is located in northwestern Louisiana, near the Texas and Arkansas borders. A suburb of Shreveport, Louisiana, it is also home to the Louisiana Army Ammunition plant. Barksdale AFB in 1962 is home to the headquarters of the Second Air Force, a major component of SAC. End result: Barksdale AFB destroyed, Shreveport in flames, 75% of the city leveled instantly, heavy primary damage to the western portions of the Louisiana Army Ammunition plant. Secondary explosions may further damage or destroy the plant.
• Ellsworth AFB, Rapid City, South Dakota
Home to the 821st Air Division, Ellsworth is today home to the B-1 bomber. In 1962, it was a major B-52 bomber base, and the Air Division included a large missile component as well. End result: Ellsworth AFB and Rapid City destroyed, missile silos intact, as these are hardened targets and are far from the base.
• Grand Forks AFB, Grand Forks, North Dakota
Home to the 319th Bomb Wing, 449th Bombardment Group, and 4133rd Strategic Wing in 1962, Grand Forks is a major bomber base. End result: Grand Forks AFB destroyed, broken windows and light damage in the town itself.
• Forbes AFB, Topeka, Kansas
Home to the 21st Air Division, Forbes AFB controls a large number of ICBMs as well as a substantial number of bombers. Topeka is also the capital of the state of Kansas, and thus center to a state government. End result: Forbes AFB destroyed, massive damage to the City of Topeka, but no damage to the missile fields to the west of the city, or to the town of Lawrence to the east.
• Fairchild AFB, Spokane, Washington
In 1962, Fairchild was the home of the 18th Strategic Aerospace Division, an umbrella organization that combined the B-52 bombers and KC-135 Stratotankers of the 92nd Bomb Wing with squadrons of Atlas ICBMs located nearby. Today, Fairchild helps Washington State achieve the distinction of having more nuclear weapons than four countries combined, thanks to the location of a nuclear reserve depot on the base. End result: Fairchild AFB destroyed, possible damage to unstable Atlas missiles, (the missiles must be kept pressurized at all times in order to provide support for the missile, or destruction of the missile will result – this caused problems when a dropped tool could rupture a fuel line and cause an explosion, due to the weak fuel tanks and lines.) Spokane west of the river destroyed, damage to the city’s eastern portion.
• Lockbourne AFB, Columbus, Ohio
Home to the 801st Air Division, Columbus is also the capital of the state of Ohio, and a large city in its own right. End result: Lockbourne AFB destroyed, southern half of Columbus in flames. Central and northern portions of the city damaged.
• New York City, New York
You shouldn’t need to ask why New York would be hit. Ideally, due to its size, it would be hit by several nuclear weapons, but I imagine that only one missile would be targeted there, simply because of its proximity to the Canadian border and thus availability to bomber attack. For the sake of argument, I’ll target the missile at the Brooklyn Navy Yard, which in 1962 was still very much in operation. End result: Brooklyn, lower Manhattan destroyed, 50% of the city in flames, massive panic, damage to eastern portions of Staten Island and New Jersey. Broken windows as far north as Yonkers. Newark damaged, Statue of Liberty knocked over, Empire State Building and Chrysler Building obliterated.
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, in addition to being one of the most populous cities in the United States, also has great historical meaning and is home to the Philadelphia Naval Yard, again one of the largest naval bases on the East Coast of the United States in 1962. End result: Philadelphia virtually destroyed. Broken windows as far as the Delaware border, with fires raging unchecked for miles.
• Colorado Springs, Colorado
Colorado Springs is the peacetime home of NORAD, one of the major centers of the US Air Force, and is home to the US Air Force Academy. In 1962, Ent Air Force Base would likely be the primary target, as it is the center of peacetime Air Force activities. The northern portions of Fort Carson also adjoin Colorado Springs. Today, the Air Force’s Space Command is located in Colorado Springs, as is the current primary base of NORAD. End result: City of Colorado Springs destroyed, Air Force academy destroyed, Ent Air Force Base destroyed, northern portions of Fort Carson destroyed, but most portions escape damage, including the training ranges.
• Detroit, Michigan
In 1962, the American automobile industry had not yet been overtaken by foreign imports, and so Detroit was as crucial to America’s economy as any other city in the country. Nearly 90 percent of the automobiles in the United States were American-built, providing jobs for millions of people, not just in Detroit, but also in factories across the country. End result: Downtown Detroit and neighboring Windsor are destroyed. Heavy damage as far as Dearborn Heights. Dozens of factories destroyed. Production outside Detroit suffers for lack of Detroit-built parts, fueling national economic depression.
• San Francisco, California
This one isn’t so much San Francisco as it is Alameda and Oakland, but a hit on either of those two places will affect San Francisco as well. Alameda is home of the third-largest naval base on the West Coast. In addition, the Oakland Army Base and Alameda Naval Air Station are also within range of a single hit. End result: A hit on Alameda will vaporize the Oakland Army Base, Treasure Island Naval Station, Alameda supply depot, NAS Alameda, and most of downtown Alameda. The Oakland Bay Bridge will be completely destroyed, and Oakland itself will suffer major damage, as will the eastern shore of San Francisco, including the Naval Station. Damage will extend across the city. The Golden Gate Bridge will suffer moderate to light damage, but should survive with scorching. Berekley will be destroyed.
