American dominance

[strijder20]

Do you expect a rise, stagnation of decline in American relative global power? Consider all terrains (culture, economy, military,...)

(I am using the adjective to indicate the United States of America here, because United Statarian of America sounds a bit daft.)

I expect a decline, as a quickly growing middle class in countries such as India and China will probably create a new market and might even move the centrum of global economy to there.

And 'supreme reigns' of countries usually don't last long. Even when countries seem to be invincible, they might collapse a few decades later. (Rome and the British empire are examples).

I think the USA is already over the peek of it's power, but will remain an important global power in the next century or so.

 

[Plotinus]

Moderator Action: Not History. Moved to OT.

 

[Leoreth]

I think the USA will stay #1 for a long time (there, I said it), probably for the whole time it is worth to forecast into.

But it's relative power will decline and already steadily does. That's not too bad coming from the unsustainable position as "the sole superpower".

 

[strijder20]

Sorry, forgot that history handles the past, not the future.

 

[attackfighter]

I suspect that US military and economic dominance will decline, however their cultural impact shall continue to grow ever greater.

Soon the whole world shall be reshaped in Hollywood's ideal image: spoiled, fat, incompetant, arrogant, greedy man-children who are entirely incapable of fulfilling even their most basic life functions, such as reproduction. It's estimated that global population growth may fall as low as 0.6 children per couple on average. The human race* is doomed for extinction, and it is all America's fault.

*well actually groups of humans who're effectively isolated from American "culture" will continue to survive. So not the whole human race will die, just America and it's merry band of hedonist lackeys.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Expect ? It has been happening for the past ten years.
Power isn't the size of the stick you have in your armoty, it's your ability to influence other peopple's/countries bahaviour.
The three most important milestones of Amerca's decline in power were:

1.) The war in Iraq. Collion Powell embarassed himself in front of the UN, former quasi-vasals like Germany became allies who can and will say no and the USA have lost a lot of credibility in the world since Abu Ghureib.

2.) The enlargement of the European Union in 2004. The EU is now the largest economy and market in the world. American and international enterprises can't afford to ignore European regulations and standards if they're in the export business and will forego mergers if the EU voices concerns over cartelization.

3.) The financial crisis which has has shown the world that the US economy isn't really a model you want to imitate any more.

 

[strijder20]

I suspect that US military and economic dominance will decline, however their cultural impact shall continue to grow ever greater.

Soon the whole world shall be reshaped in Hollywood's ideal image: spoiled, fat, incompetant, arrogant, greedy man-children who are entirely incapable of fulfilling even their most basic life functions, such as reproduction. It's estimated that global population growth may fall as low as 0.6 children per couple on average. The human race* is doomed for extinction, and it is all America's fault.

*well actually groups of humans who're effectively isolated from American "culture" will continue to survive. So not the whole human race will die, just America and it's merry band of hedonist lackeys.

I thought decrease of birth rate was just caused by development.
And say that every 20 years, the population halves, then we still have 6 centuries to go until the extinction of the human race.
Hurray!

 

[Leoreth]

Actually I think what's going on in Europe is only a subplot in the show of the decline of American power.

 

[strijder20]

Actually I think what's going on in Europe is only a subplot in the show of the decline of American power.

You mean the trouble in Europe represents American instability? How so?

 

[Leoreth]

No, I mean (in response to GoodSarmatian's post) that Europe shouldn't be the first place to look (hence "sub"plot) if one wants to see the signs of America's relative "decline". The BRIC states provide a far better case study for that.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Europe is very relevant becaue it used to go along with whatever America does. Our growing self conciousness and independence from the US means an absolute decline in American power.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Everyone always predicts gloom and doom during bad periods of the economy, all of which is promptly forgotten once it picks up again.

 

[aronnax]

, however their cultural impact shall continue to grow ever greater.

I disagree on America's cultural impact actually increasing. Perhaps you don't feel where you live, but the East Asian media market has been booming recently in it's spread across Pacific Rim at least. It's not just Japanese Animes that get exported anymore. Thai movies have always filled a specific horror niche while Chinese/Korean/Japanese movies have been flooding the South East Asian region more than ever before, while the rise of Chinese serial dramas and comedies has become an established presence (in Singapore at least). I've watched some of the non-soap opera Chinese serial dramas, and my god, there are some very powerful performances and story telling of modern Chinese life (1960s onwards).
While, America will continue to hit big in the Pacific rim region, I do believe that it will have to share the spotlight with film and pop culture that is coming from China, Korea and Japan.

 

[Jehoshua]

It is fairly clear that the world is moving from the brief aberration of unipolarity where America held indisputable hegemony over the world in terms of power into a renewed multipolar world. Thus US power relative to the rising great powers of in particular China but also India, Russia and Brazil will decline.

That said America is likely to remain top dog at least for the first half of the century, although economically it will continue its relative decline, although on a positive note for the americans on here, its hard power will likely be more enduring, although it too in its turn will inevitably decline relatively due to the association of economic strength to military power (more money = better and bigger military)

 

[strijder20]

Everyone always predicts gloom and doom during bad periods of the economy, all of which is promptly forgotten once it picks up again.

As we are talking about relative power, decline of relative power of America might actually be a good thing. After all, it means some other nation is getting more powerful.

Europe is very relevant becaue it used to go along with whatever America does. Our growing self conciousness and independence from the US means an absolute decline in American power.

Ah, thank you.

 

[timtofly]

The US will remain in said status as long as the rest of the world demands it of us. I do realize that it is annoying to keep sticking your nose in other peoples business, and as a nationalist I would prefer that the US did not do that. One does not move to the head of the class just in search of their own interest. They also have to be benevolent, or they will sit in the corner. As long as we can keep self last and others first, we will not have a problem. That is a noble goal and most can not live up to that.

 

[Leoreth]

Europe is very relevant becaue it used to go along with whatever America does. Our growing self conciousness and independence from the US means an absolute decline in American power.

Okay, fair point, but in my opinion that's more a symptom of US-American decline than one of its causes.

 

[dot80]

The US will remain in said status as long as the rest of the world demands it of us. I do realize that it is annoying to keep sticking your nose in other peoples business, and as a nationalist I would prefer that the US did not do that. One does not move to the head of the class just in search of their own interest. They also have to be benevolent, or they will sit in the corner. As long as we can keep self last and others first, we will not have a problem. That is a noble goal and most can not live up to that.

America hardly keeps itself last. Anything America does on the national stage benefits it in someway.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Okay, fair point, but in my opinion that's more a symptom of US-American decline than one of its causes.

Symptom and cause are often hard to distinguish and some events can be both at the same time.
If Germany and France had joined the coalition it would have sent a signal to the USA and the rest of the world that America can BS Europe into joining wars with flimsy justifications, and affirmed American dominance over the 'Western World'. Germany probably wouldn't have sent any troops, but we could have helped finance the whole adventure.
Fisher's 'Im not convinced' put an end to that.

 

[Red Key]

Of course with other countries' power increasing, America's relative power will decrease. However, looking at it in a non-relative way I think America's power will continue to increase for many many years to come.

There are positives and negatives to this change in world power. Overall, I think it is mostly positive because it indicates a larger number of people have a better standard of living.