Another special election...

[Timsup2nothin]

This time in Arizona.

Stop me if you've heard this one before. There's this scandal plagued Republican who resigns in disgrace...

Oh, you've heard that one. How about this one. The district hasn't sent a Democrat to congress in decades, and Trump won by twenty points...

Oh, yeah, heard that one too I guess.

Ah well, here's a story about the latest in dead heat polls.

 

[Bootstoots]

Looks like that poll is an outlier against a polling average in the Rep +10 range, which is quite different from the situation in Pennsylvania where the polling average was tied to even marginally Dem leaning. Still, even losing by a greatly reduced margin would be good news for the Dems.

 

[Gori the Grey]

The district hasn't sent a Republican to congress in decades

Hasn't sent a Democrat in decades, do you mean?

Go Blue!

I guess Dent isn't planning even to finish out his term, but leave in May. PA law calls for a vote within 2 months, i.e. July. That too should serve as a bellweather for November.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Looks like that poll is an outlier against a polling average in the Rep +10 range, which is quite different from the situation in Pennsylvania where the polling average was tied to even marginally Dem leaning. Still, even losing by a greatly reduced margin would be good news for the Dems.

FWIW, DNC internal polling completed today also came in dead heat, 44-44, but showed the same worrisome higher certainty on the Republican side for "how sure are you that you are going to vote?" They need a strong final blitz to let people know that if they turn out and vote they actually can win this thing.