innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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If he was in good health at the time, he'd have been an improvement on the generals in place when taking command personally!
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If he was in good health at the time, he'd have been an improvement on the generals in place when taking command personally!
Donald Tusk has written to Johnson to congratulate him on his new role, with only one other line of text: "I look forward to meeting you to discuss - in detail - our cooperation."
This isn't going to go well...
This isn't going to go well...
Tusk is to leave his position (or has he already been given some other position from which to discuss anything with Pfeffel?).
I have no idea about Tusk's future career prospects, but Johnson is now PM and Tusk is the man to speak to during these crucial 100 days, especially as Johnson is once again promising the stars before the end of October.
Lillefix
I'm serious. You can.
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That made me laugh. He knows where to sting.
Tusk will be in official EU position until ultimo November this year.
So will Boris.
EnglishEdward
Deity
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
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The odds are silly though. If May for all her faults could cling on for so long because the MPs didn't dare cause an early election, I don't see any justification for giving high odds to one happening now.
I do not really know, but the number of ministers that resigned before or just after his appointment would seem to indicate that there is significant pushback against his direction. Also his stuffing of the cabinet with brexiteers, where May tried to have a balance at the top table could put a few remainers into the "prefer general election to BoJo" camp.
2/3rds chance of a general election before October does seem very high though.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Thing is too many Remainer Cabinet ministers had said they would not serve under
Boris Johnson and/or would to the end oppose a no deal, so Boris having little choice but to
appoint a predominantly Leaver Cabinet may have decided to make a virtue of a necessity.
I cannot make my mind up on the probability of a general election before 31 October 2019.
There are too many perambulations around the varous strategies of blocking Boris and ousting Boris.
For instance the possible of an early rebellion , with a centrist apponted to try to head a coalition is not in the chart.
Daily Mail tragically misreads the situation.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...-must-be-terrified/ar-AAEOC1X?ocid=spartanntp
I suspect we'll see an attempt at renegotiation by Boris that will go nowhere, No Deal blocked by Parliament, then probably a general election (maybe a 2nd referendum if the Tories are doing badly in the polls) after Boris fails to leave on Oct 31st. That might hopefully provide a clear majority for some course of action.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...-must-be-terrified/ar-AAEOC1X?ocid=spartanntp
I suspect we'll see an attempt at renegotiation by Boris that will go nowhere, No Deal blocked by Parliament, then probably a general election (maybe a 2nd referendum if the Tories are doing badly in the polls) after Boris fails to leave on Oct 31st. That might hopefully provide a clear majority for some course of action.
Useful to recall that the Eu (through its very unellected this time Commissioner) already said it will gladly give another extension. This does spell out that the Eu isn't going to watch while no deal brexit happens, and it logically follows it will make concessions if no deal is to happen.
Once again, I sincerely hope those concessions don't come at the expense of Ireland. If those oligarchs want to keep some money they should give away their own stuff for a change.
I don't trust Boris to lead anything, but that doesn't mean the dynamic will work against him. If he can show that no deal is possible, he very likely will be given something by the Eu so as to go for light brexit.
More realistically, though, he will botch this up, and through some combination of events there will be another pretend & extend session.
Once again, I sincerely hope those concessions don't come at the expense of Ireland. If those oligarchs want to keep some money they should give away their own stuff for a change.
I don't trust Boris to lead anything, but that doesn't mean the dynamic will work against him. If he can show that no deal is possible, he very likely will be given something by the Eu so as to go for light brexit.
More realistically, though, he will botch this up, and through some combination of events there will be another pretend & extend session.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Yes, if Boris does not force a showdown or go for an early general election, these are the most likely scenarios:
My thoughts:
Johnson moves the backstop border back to the Irish sea, goes for a Free Trade Agreement for the rest of the UK, then goes for a general election having delivered Brexit to be rid of the DUP and the Brexit party.
The above is based on nothing of substance other than it is what I would try to do to keep power.
The intentions could be negotiated in the political declaration - but the withdrawal agreement would have to be passed.
Johnson moves the backstop border back to the Irish sea, goes for a Free Trade Agreement for the rest of the UK, then goes for a general election having delivered Brexit to be rid of the DUP and the Brexit party.
The above is based on nothing of substance other than it is what I would try to do to keep power.
The intentions could be negotiated in the political declaration - but the withdrawal agreement would have to be passed.
If "sacrificing" NI is what it takes to get England out of the EU with a FTA to limit the damage for England... why not ?
All depending on what the polls are going to tell Boris on this scenario.
If so executed... will the hardcore Brexiteers (in England !) be so Union-minded that they will vote on Farage ?... or be happy that Brexit is done and return to the Tory party.
Or is that Union thinking more something of the "Barons" of Westminster, nicely sold over the centuries to the peoples... and by now just a burden and dilluting the profits of London City.
The polls suggest a lot of pro-Brexit voters would be happy to wave goodbye to Scotland and NI if that got them the Brexit they want. The problem for Boris would be the Tories at Westminster with their imperial nostalgia. It would probably be a problem for Boris himself.
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