Can China survive depression and deglobalisation?

[Winner]

So the question, then, becomes: Can China survive a depression coupled with a simultaneous deglobalisation? And if it cannot, what effects does this have on the rest of us?

China will most definitely survive.

As for its regime, that's another story. Chinese "Communist" Party remains the sole political force in the country because it offered the Chinese a better future - higher living standards, better jobs etc. That's the sole source of its legitimacy. If it fails in this and the Chinese realize that this "dynasty's" potential has been exhausted, they might look for another one.

I am just VERY afraid that the successor to the "Mao's dynasty" might be some crazy nationalist movement. Nationalism is growing stronger in China, so far the Communist party has used it to gather support. I think they're playing with fire.

A strong nationalist oriented government may not follow the same "under the radar" approach to foreign policy. It might be tempted to use China's fast modernizing military to secure resources and markets in Asia and thus drive China into a conflict both with other regional powers in Asia and the U.S.

 

[plarq]

The hypothetical situation invokes a "deglobalization", thus a regional conflict has better chance, since US will intervene less.

 

[RedRalph]

I'm actually inclined to agree with Winner. I think a potential new nationalist govt would be far worse an option than the present 'communist' govt.

 

[plarq]

Germany was in a similar situation when we lost WW1. The economy was . .. .. .. .ed, noone liked us, extremely high debt etc.
The emperor resigned. The OHL (Oberste Heeresleitung, military leaders) didn't stop the uprising revolution but made sure that Germany would become a republic. Later they blamed the loss on the republicans and got away with it.

What I want to say is that China made some amazingly clever decisions in the last century like turning away from Russia or the One-child-policy.
Turning their country into a democracy when things get worse would just be another clever decision.

I don't think Sino-Soviet split is a clever move of CCP. CCP lost huge aid from Soviet Union and threw itself into triple hostility against SU, India and US. Even worse than North Korea nowadays!

 

[queendumb]

But doesn't the US have massive debt to China in the form of bonds? If the US can't pay back their loans to China, would China recall their bonds to destroy the dollar and/or clam “the lands of the free” by force to regain their lost?

The first half of this century is going to be err...interesting, yes that's the right word, on what is going to fold out in the future.