I think many people are assuming the Trung Sisters will lead Vietnam, so that'll be our second female leader... to briefly defend Kievan Rus', Olga of Kiev would be a really awesome addition and is arguably the best person that could represent the civilization, seeing the direction the developers are going.
If it's true that we're looking at half new, half old civilizations, wouldn't your calculation indicate we still need one more new one for the NFP? If we have 4 old and only 3 new now, and that covers all the ones we know of, adding Portugal would leave us with a 5-3 split favoring the old.