RedCourtJester
Emperor
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
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Some final minor predictions before launch now that we have a much better picture of the game:
Crossroads Civs:
* If the Crossroads of the World distinction about natural wonders still holds and was not a misprint, then I think Assyria and Britain are very likely candidates (and at least somewhat fit the "concept" of "crossroads" at opposite ends of history). Assyria is a strong candidate because Dur-Sharrukin is the only antiquity wonder that does not give a base stat increase, and it seems all too likely Oxford will be the same if only because Britain is probably the most anticipated exclusion from the base game.
* We can't know 100% that we know all of the wonders in the exploration and modern eras until release. However if this is all we get, I will make one bold guess that all exploration and modern era wonders are associated with a civ by the end of Crossroads (antiquity has a lot of "base stat" wonders that seem obviously planned as generic Culture wincon facilitators). If Britain gets Oxford, there are only four "unassociated wonders" left after antiquity: Notre Dame, Shwedagon Paya, Red Fort, and Taj Mahal. And the fact that two of these could and should easily be associated with a single civ gives me pause. Thus:
* Notre Dame likely points at Franks/Carolingians/Francia in Crossroads. Imo it doesn't fit with the theme as well as Assyria/Britain, but if the name of the expac was applied retroactively to a "filling in missing key civs" pack, the Franks make enough sense as a "near-base game" civ. Other things going for them include all the French and German leaders, suggesting that at least after the first "free-ish DLC" round Firaxis were hoping to have a full "China/India" path for France and Germany (and I suppose Britain to an extent given the Normans). With, it seems, a loose caveat that, like other regions of the world, all Europe civs need to start from the Europe "wellfont" that is Rome (ala, for now, Maya, Khmer, and Aksum).
* The wild card here is Shwedagon Paya pointing at Burma in Crossroads. Which, hey, it is the "wild card slot" wonder, and if any "base stat" wonder could maybe edge its way out of being a generic unassociated wonder, it would be the "wild card" stat (see Ibn Battuta). I really don't think of Burma as a base game civ, but I could somewhat see the reasoning here. It completes a satisfying Khmer->Siam path with probably the most appropriate middle-man, and to some extent that path is much more easily completable with a single civ than regions I think are planned for more substantial DLC. It's an easy bone to throw that puts Southeast Asia out of mind for the devs for now until we maybe get a more substantial Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia pack. Also, the Indochine spectrum is kinda "crossroadsy." It suffices for Southeast Asia on release, in the same way that Trung and Rizal did at launch.
* There are regions I would have preferred we got more representation by the end of Crossroads, but overall, if the aim was just "finishing out" a couple areas, these are...okay. When I think of counterpoints, they easily escalate into begging more than one civ added to the game at once: Byzantium and Ottomans, Swahili/Zulu/Wagadu/Hausa, Cordoba/Portugal/Brazil, Norse/Scandis, Samoa/Maori, Edo Japan/Joseon Korea, etc. etc. I am hoping that after the first DLC pack or two they start to hone in on particular regions, but that remains to be seen.
Crossroads Leaders:
* Leaders for this: I think the Franks were already set up in base game for plenty of leaders. I think Burma is just adding the last base-game facet to Trung/Jose paths. So it seems most likely the new leaders, if they are associated with civs in the pack, are Assyrian and British. This tracks, given that base Civ without Britain and British leader would be sacreligious, and an Assyrian/Syrian leader would shore up the lack of a true Arabian leader in the base game. Obviously there are several choices here, but I am going to bet that this is Zenobia's only shot until, if ever, late-cycle leader packs, so I will favor her a bit. And then, since I am sensing some pressure to switch up Elizabeth/Victoria, I will toss out James as a British leader (who could then serve as a cliffhanger for a later Scottish/Irish pack). But I haven't fully thought through the leader typing implications and if there are holes better filled by other figures. This could just as easily be some baity staples like Elizabeth/Victoria and Ashurbanipal/Semiramis.
Other Implications:
* Finally, an aside, but I think barring some later design reversals, I think the antiquity unassociated wonders very comfortably point toward civs that will not be in the game. For most of them, this already makes sense, but obviously there were a few such as Goths, Silla, and Tonga that I think people were hoping for. I would further suggest that a secondary purpose of antiquity unassociated wonders is to allow some additional "flavor" for civs/cultures that won't get a full India/China path. So if you want to play "Aztecy," you run Maya with Teotihuacan. If you want to play "Korea-y," you run Han/??? -> Joseon -> ??? with Emile Bell. If you want to play "Gothy," there may ultimately be a Goth leader you can start with Cordoba or Rome and build Theodoric's thing.
* Consequently, I do not think the odds favor us seeing: Teotihuacan, Tonga, Goths, Silla, Gupta/Pala, Qin, Babylon, or Nabataea in Civ VII. Barring some mid-development changes of heart, these wonders seem designed to remain unassociated. However, I do think we will see, at some point, in order from most to least likely: Aztecs (exploration), Joseon (exploration), Sumeria (antiquity), Samoa (antiquity), and Cordoba (antiquity?). I still am not sure if Cordoba will even be necessary (but appreciated), and I am arguing for Samoa because (1) Hawaii will sorely need a better start point, more than almost any other exploration civ, and (2) Samoans are the third largest Polynesian population after Maori and Hawaiian. In fact, I will throw in Maori as pretty solid chances down the line to complete the Samoa/Tonga/Hawaii chain.
* While I think leaders are less assured to be pointing toward anything, the fact that we have some oddly specific choices without associated civs makes me think those odds are not insignificant. I think for upcoming DLC (and likely sooner than later), we will see Vietnam (exploration - Trung Trac), Philippines (modern - Joze Rizal), Morocco-ish (exploration - Ibn Battuta), and Hausa (modern - Amina). I think the specific choices of some of these civs also point toward likely "path-fillers" (Wagadu, Swahili/Kilwa, Gran Colombia...mayyyybe a full four-civ SEA pack with antiquity Melayu and modern Vietnam...maybe Garamantes and a modern Morocco...maybe a full four-civ Japan/Korea pack), but we will need to see more DLC packs/expansions to confirm just how much the devs want to flesh those regions out.
Crossroads Civs:
* If the Crossroads of the World distinction about natural wonders still holds and was not a misprint, then I think Assyria and Britain are very likely candidates (and at least somewhat fit the "concept" of "crossroads" at opposite ends of history). Assyria is a strong candidate because Dur-Sharrukin is the only antiquity wonder that does not give a base stat increase, and it seems all too likely Oxford will be the same if only because Britain is probably the most anticipated exclusion from the base game.
* We can't know 100% that we know all of the wonders in the exploration and modern eras until release. However if this is all we get, I will make one bold guess that all exploration and modern era wonders are associated with a civ by the end of Crossroads (antiquity has a lot of "base stat" wonders that seem obviously planned as generic Culture wincon facilitators). If Britain gets Oxford, there are only four "unassociated wonders" left after antiquity: Notre Dame, Shwedagon Paya, Red Fort, and Taj Mahal. And the fact that two of these could and should easily be associated with a single civ gives me pause. Thus:
* Notre Dame likely points at Franks/Carolingians/Francia in Crossroads. Imo it doesn't fit with the theme as well as Assyria/Britain, but if the name of the expac was applied retroactively to a "filling in missing key civs" pack, the Franks make enough sense as a "near-base game" civ. Other things going for them include all the French and German leaders, suggesting that at least after the first "free-ish DLC" round Firaxis were hoping to have a full "China/India" path for France and Germany (and I suppose Britain to an extent given the Normans). With, it seems, a loose caveat that, like other regions of the world, all Europe civs need to start from the Europe "wellfont" that is Rome (ala, for now, Maya, Khmer, and Aksum).
* The wild card here is Shwedagon Paya pointing at Burma in Crossroads. Which, hey, it is the "wild card slot" wonder, and if any "base stat" wonder could maybe edge its way out of being a generic unassociated wonder, it would be the "wild card" stat (see Ibn Battuta). I really don't think of Burma as a base game civ, but I could somewhat see the reasoning here. It completes a satisfying Khmer->Siam path with probably the most appropriate middle-man, and to some extent that path is much more easily completable with a single civ than regions I think are planned for more substantial DLC. It's an easy bone to throw that puts Southeast Asia out of mind for the devs for now until we maybe get a more substantial Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia pack. Also, the Indochine spectrum is kinda "crossroadsy." It suffices for Southeast Asia on release, in the same way that Trung and Rizal did at launch.
* There are regions I would have preferred we got more representation by the end of Crossroads, but overall, if the aim was just "finishing out" a couple areas, these are...okay. When I think of counterpoints, they easily escalate into begging more than one civ added to the game at once: Byzantium and Ottomans, Swahili/Zulu/Wagadu/Hausa, Cordoba/Portugal/Brazil, Norse/Scandis, Samoa/Maori, Edo Japan/Joseon Korea, etc. etc. I am hoping that after the first DLC pack or two they start to hone in on particular regions, but that remains to be seen.
Crossroads Leaders:
* Leaders for this: I think the Franks were already set up in base game for plenty of leaders. I think Burma is just adding the last base-game facet to Trung/Jose paths. So it seems most likely the new leaders, if they are associated with civs in the pack, are Assyrian and British. This tracks, given that base Civ without Britain and British leader would be sacreligious, and an Assyrian/Syrian leader would shore up the lack of a true Arabian leader in the base game. Obviously there are several choices here, but I am going to bet that this is Zenobia's only shot until, if ever, late-cycle leader packs, so I will favor her a bit. And then, since I am sensing some pressure to switch up Elizabeth/Victoria, I will toss out James as a British leader (who could then serve as a cliffhanger for a later Scottish/Irish pack). But I haven't fully thought through the leader typing implications and if there are holes better filled by other figures. This could just as easily be some baity staples like Elizabeth/Victoria and Ashurbanipal/Semiramis.
Other Implications:
* Finally, an aside, but I think barring some later design reversals, I think the antiquity unassociated wonders very comfortably point toward civs that will not be in the game. For most of them, this already makes sense, but obviously there were a few such as Goths, Silla, and Tonga that I think people were hoping for. I would further suggest that a secondary purpose of antiquity unassociated wonders is to allow some additional "flavor" for civs/cultures that won't get a full India/China path. So if you want to play "Aztecy," you run Maya with Teotihuacan. If you want to play "Korea-y," you run Han/??? -> Joseon -> ??? with Emile Bell. If you want to play "Gothy," there may ultimately be a Goth leader you can start with Cordoba or Rome and build Theodoric's thing.
* Consequently, I do not think the odds favor us seeing: Teotihuacan, Tonga, Goths, Silla, Gupta/Pala, Qin, Babylon, or Nabataea in Civ VII. Barring some mid-development changes of heart, these wonders seem designed to remain unassociated. However, I do think we will see, at some point, in order from most to least likely: Aztecs (exploration), Joseon (exploration), Sumeria (antiquity), Samoa (antiquity), and Cordoba (antiquity?). I still am not sure if Cordoba will even be necessary (but appreciated), and I am arguing for Samoa because (1) Hawaii will sorely need a better start point, more than almost any other exploration civ, and (2) Samoans are the third largest Polynesian population after Maori and Hawaiian. In fact, I will throw in Maori as pretty solid chances down the line to complete the Samoa/Tonga/Hawaii chain.
* While I think leaders are less assured to be pointing toward anything, the fact that we have some oddly specific choices without associated civs makes me think those odds are not insignificant. I think for upcoming DLC (and likely sooner than later), we will see Vietnam (exploration - Trung Trac), Philippines (modern - Joze Rizal), Morocco-ish (exploration - Ibn Battuta), and Hausa (modern - Amina). I think the specific choices of some of these civs also point toward likely "path-fillers" (Wagadu, Swahili/Kilwa, Gran Colombia...mayyyybe a full four-civ SEA pack with antiquity Melayu and modern Vietnam...maybe Garamantes and a modern Morocco...maybe a full four-civ Japan/Korea pack), but we will need to see more DLC packs/expansions to confirm just how much the devs want to flesh those regions out.
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