Clown Car II: Revenge of the Clowns

[hobbsyoyo]

Roy Moore is going to win with a small, but bigger than expected, margin.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Roy Moore is going to win with a small, but bigger than expected, margin.

Then come 2020 he'll announce his running in the primaries. He'll name Terry Jones as his running mate; Promising to give Americans the government they deserve!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

There have been a couple of conflicting court orders on this but apparently the final court verdict is that Alabama may destroy the physical vote tallies from their electronic machines after the election.

 

[Broken_Erika]

There have been a couple of conflicting court orders on this but apparently the final court verdict is that Alabama may destroy the physical vote tallies from their electronic machines after the election.

Electoral Transparency is for Mooslim Commienazis!

 

[Takhisis]

Any bets on the outcome today in Alabama? I'm turning off my usual "Pick One Team" rule... so feel free to respond with noncommittal ramblings and hedging.

For my part I have no idea.

I'd say that either of Moore or Jones would win.

There have been a couple of conflicting court orders on this but apparently the final court verdict is that Alabama may destroy the physical vote tallies from their electronic machines after the election.

And there's a predicted turnout of fewer than half of all voters, probably fewer than a third, as is reported…

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

loooooooooooooooool skip to 2:19 for the best part

 

[Gori the Grey]

Any bets on the outcome today in Alabama?

Who will win in Alabama?

The Democrats.

 

[Takhisis]

UN shocked by level of poverty in Alabama: 'We haven't seen this in the first world'

 

[Sommerswerd]

loooooooooooooooool skip to 2:19 for the best part

Pleeeeease watch this, OMG ROTFLMAO @ the first 20 seconds of this video... "Mosaic-English" WTF are you talking about guy? Taking classes to Learn English in Canada?

1:55 - "Roy Moore loves his wife, Kayla loves him, its clear on television, you can tell that."

The best part is 2:38 when they have the exchange about swearing on the bible... the look on the guests face, when Jake says "That's not the law"... you can just see in the guys face that he is quite literally hearing something that he never heard, never even conceived of in his entire life.

 

[Arwon]

If/when Moore wins just remember places like Alabama aren't really democracies don't have electoral systems designed to democratically express the full will of the people. There's going to have been a lot of voter suppression tilting the scales.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Holy cow that video was hilarious.

 

[Gori the Grey]

you can just see in the guys face that he is quite literally hearing something that he never heard, never even conceived of in his entire life.

that he literally cannot conceive of.

 

[Broken_Erika]

B-B-B-But i sweared on a bible 3 times....

 

[Arwon]

Huh

Turnout apparently falling catastrophically in white/GOP majority areas. This is I think with a bit under half of the places reporting.

 

[Gori the Grey]

What's your source? None of the TV stations are reporting anything close to this.

 

[Arwon]

That's the NYT attempted projection. Your TV stations, for some reason, don't seem to generally try to project for unreported areas (this is strange to me, our public TV station has a guy whose whole job is literally building models to do that from early returns during elections).

This projection swung to 90 on the first big low turnout areas that reported and has tacked back since then.

It's swung back to about 65%, the story still looks like turnout differential though. Here's the key for projections:

The big unknown is how strongly those Birmingham and Montgomery areas actually come in - within each county they can't tell which booths have reported.

And Cohn's latest comments: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn

 

[Takhisis]

So all those numbers and odds above are dependent on everything holding as right now which they cannot really promise will happen.

 

[Arwon]

It's gotten a lot more favourable since then - votes counted are essentially tied with Jones slightlyt up, and all the outstanding vote is in the big Democrat leaning cities.

Basically the uncertainty is not kinowing which booths within counties have reported. The Moore path here is now hoping that a lot of the most Republican friendly areas are yet to report in those big cities, rather than a representative sample or a Democratic-leaning set.

 

[Arwon]

Yeah it's done now

 

[Takhisis]

Well, really, the Moore camp's best statement is that Moore isn't racist because his lawyer is Jewish.

!!!!