Coup in Myanmar?

[Samson]

A few more details today:

The more than two weeks of protests have been largely peaceful, but tensions escalated on Saturday when soldiers and police fired live rounds at striking workers at Mandalay’s Yadanabon dock.
One victim was shot in the head and died immediately, according to the Frontier Myanmar magazine, while another was shot in the chest and died en route to the hospital. An emergency worker told the AFP news agency 30 others had been wounded, with half of the injuries caused by live rounds.
Thomas Andrews, the UN special rapporteur for Myanmar, said he had received reports that the Tatmadaw’s 33rd Light Infantry Division was involved in the shootings. That unit was responsible for the campaign of mass killings, rape, and arson that forced 730,000 members of the Rohingya ethnic minority into Bangladesh in 2017.
Andrews called the shootings “a dangerous escalation by the junta in what appears to be a war against the people of Myanmar”.
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But it has not put off the protestors

Tens of thousands of anti-coup protesters have returned to the streets of cities and towns across Myanmar, undeterred by the killing of at least two people during a military crackdown on a demonstration in the country’s second-largest city of Mandalay.
In Yangon, Myanmar’s largest city, several thousand young people gathered at two sites to chant slogans, while thousands massed peacefully in Mandalay.
“They aimed at the heads of unarmed civilians. They aimed at our future,” a young protester told the crowd in the central city.
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[EnglishEdward]

Myanmar (Burma) is little more than a client state of China these days.

To my mind it doesn't matter what the USA or UN say; what
matters is whether the Chinese government support the junta.

At the moment, they seem very solidly behind them.

There seems to be a parallel between the treatment of the
follower of Mohammed's proclamation in Burma and China.
Both governments share the strategy; not to have any of them.

They seem to differ only in tactics with (a) the Myanmar tactic is
to expell them while (b) China's tactics are to assimilate them
in to the Han culture, prevent them from reproducing OR kill them.

 

[Kyriakos]

The good thing about China is that, unlike the US, they clearly aren't into developing what they view as some edge, and instead focus on their mainland as the absolute center. I term this "good" ironically, because it means they don't plan to develop anything outside of China (other than 3rd world-type development). US, at least, did (re)develop Europe after ww2.

 

[Samson]

22222 uprising (22/2/2021)

Hundreds of thousands of protesters have gathered in cities and towns across Myanmar as businesses also shut their doors, despite the country’s military warning of further “loss of life” if people answered a call for a general strike opposing its February 1 coup.

The crowds were gathering after supporters of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), a loosely organised group leading the resistance, called for people to unite on Monday’s date for a “Two Five” or a “Spring Revolution”.

This is despite very ominous words from the Tatmadaw: “It is found that the protesters have raised their incitement towards riot and anarchy mob on the day of 22 February. Protesters are now inciting the people, especially emotional teenagers and youths, to a confrontation path where they will suffer the loss of life”
​

It is hard to say from pictures like this, but it looks like a lot more people than the satellite images I posted above:

 

[Tee Kay]

The good thing about China is that, unlike the US, they clearly aren't into developing what they view as some edge, and instead focus on their mainland as the absolute center. I term this "good" ironically, because it means they don't plan to develop anything outside of China (other than 3rd world-type development). US, at least, did (re)develop Europe after ww2.

Lol no. Massive investment/meddling (take your pick) in Africa, Asia, Europe, and to a somewhat lesser extent South America. There are many countries where China is already the clear economic hegemon responsible for pretty much all the big infrastructure improvements and investments. You should know this; they've been looking to build a canal connecting your city to the Danube.

If it seems like they're less expansionist than the Americans it's because they're just getting started.

 

[Kyriakos]

Lol no. Massive investment/meddling (take your pick) in Africa, Asia, Europe, and to a somewhat lesser extent South America. There are many countries where China is already the clear economic hegemon responsible for pretty much all the big infrastructure improvements and investments. You should know this; they've been looking to build a canal connecting your city to the Danube.

If it seems like they're less expansionist than the Americans it's because they're just getting started.

I think it is more likely to build a canal linking Greece to the black sea, to be honest. Bullet freight trains would suffice for the balkan network (which is in rather prehistoric state, and this costs a lot of trade).
I think China is renting the port here, for the next 5 million years, so they should at least build some new infrastructure. I am not optimistic.

 

[aelf]

It's unclear if China is actually backing the junta. Maybe in small ways.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it does. You can't trust the CCP.

 

[Samson]

Bloodiest day so far

Security forces in Myanmar moved quickly to stamp out protests against military rule on Sunday, firing live bullets at demonstrators in the main city of Yangon and other cities, killing at least four people and wounding several in the bloodiest day of weeks of demonstrations.
Police were out in force early and opened fire in different parts of Yangon after stun grenades, tear gas and shots in the air failed to break up crowds. Soldiers also reinforced police.

A man who witnessed the shooting told the Frontier Magazine that the police had fired live rounds at protesters sheltering at a bus station and that “one person died and others are wounded”.

Police also opened fire in Dawei in the south, killing three and wounding several, politician Kyaw Min Htike told Reuters from the town.
The Irrawaddy online media outlet reported one person had been killed in a protest in the second city of Mandalay while an emergency services charity reported two dead in the central town of Bago.
A woman also died of a suspected heart attack after police broke up a teachers’ protest with stun grenades in the main city of Yangon, her daughter and a colleague said.
Hayman May Hninsi, who was with a group of fellow teachers in Yangon, said “police got out of their cars and started throwing stun grenades without warning”.
“Some teachers got hurt running. We’re assessing the situation and whether to go out again or not.”
Myanmar Now said a female public school teacher sustained a gunshot wound and that her condition remained unclear.

Al Jazeera’s Tony Cheng, reporting from Bangkok, said reports coming in across the country of much more brutal tactics being used by the security services signalled a clear shift in approach.
“We saw a change in tactics [on Saturday] when they started to push back against the protesters much more aggressively, but today it appears they are using live rounds and they are not afraid to take life,” he said.

Sunday’s crackdown followed a similar wave of action against largely peaceful anti-coup rallies around the country a day earlier.
State-run MRTV television said 479 people had been arrested on Saturday.

Despite the crackdown, hundreds of protesters remain on the streets of Yangon, with many of them setting up makeshift barricades and carrying shields to protect themselves.
Youth activist Esther Ze Naw told Reuters people were battling to overcome the fear they had lived with for so long.
“This fear will only grow if we keep living with it and the people who are creating the fear know that. It’s obvious they’re trying to instil fear in us by making us run and hide,” she said.
“We can’t accept that.”
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Frontier Myanmar Al Jazeera

Spoiler The nasty pictures :

Spoiler But there is still major protest :

 

[aelf]

Not sure why firing live rounds is deemed necessary. Brutal crackdown just for the sake of it?

And why do police and troops tend to go along with it? I guess they don't consider themselves part of the population? Seems to lend weight to arguments that the police are not part of the people and should be opposed.

 

[Samson]

Death toll "at least 18" today

“Throughout the day, in several locations throughout the country, police and military forces have confronted peaceful demonstrations, using lethal force and less-than-lethal force that – according to credible information received by the UN Human Rights Office – has left at least 18 people dead and over 30 wounded,” the office said on Sunday.
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[EnglishEdward]

A sad day for democracy.

 

[Kyriakos]

Assuming that Myanmar already is under sanctions (and it's not exposed much to any western economy in the first place), how would it be realistic that any meaningful intervention happens?
The US doesn't have interests there, and sending armies costs money (no oil to pay for the army during "nation-building" either).

 

[aelf]

Add to that the fact that ASEAN members are basically jerk faces. No one wants to intervene not because they are against interventionism as a principle but because "how would that benefit us?" Also, full on denials that the junta's money is sitting in a bank account somewhere - it can't help that being beholden to the regime means you're likely to tolerate it.

No significant funds from Myanmar companies and individuals found in Singapore banks: MAS

 

[Samson]

38 killed in ‘bloodiest day’ since coup hit Myanmar

At least 38 people were killed in anti-coup protests in Myanmar on Wednesday, the United Nations said, in the bloodiest crackdown yet on peaceful demonstrations against a military coup.
Police and soldiers opened fire with live rounds with little warning, witnesses said.
She cited weapons experts who examined video footage that appeared to show police using 9mm sub-machine guns to fire live ammunition at people.

“I saw today very disturbing video clips. One was [showing] police beating a volunteer medical crew; they were not armed,” Burgener told a virtual briefing.
“Another video clip showed a protester was taken away from police and they shot him from very near, maybe one metre. He didn’t resist his arrest and it seems he died on the street.”
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), which has been tracking arrests since the coup, says 1,498 people have been detained with 1,192 still in detention. In its nightly briefing on the situation in the country it condemned the use of force against peaceful protesters, saying live ammunition had been used in seven cities across the country.
“The military and so-called police are making an enemy of the peaceful protesters, terrorising and directing their guns towards peoples face, chest, head, back and abdomen,” the group said.
Earlier on Wednesday, videos from various locations showed security forces firing slingshots at demonstrators, chasing them down, and even beating an ambulance crew with rifle butts and batons.

Witnesses said security forces opened sustained fire in a neighbourhood in the north of the city in the early evening. “I heard so much continuous firing. I lay down on the ground, they shot a lot,” said protester Kaung Pyae Sone Tun, 23.
A doctor told the AFP news agency one protester was shot in the chest in the second city Mandalay while another, a 19-year-old woman, was shot in the head.
“It’s horrific, it’s a massacre. No words can describe the situation and our feelings,” youth activist Thinzar Shunlei Yi said.
Save the Children said in a statement that four children were among the dead, including a 14-year-old boy who Radio Free Asia reported was shot dead by a soldier on a passing convoy of military trucks. The soldiers loaded his body onto a truck and left the scene.
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People attend the funeral of 19-year-old Ma Kyal Sin who was shot in the head as Myanmar forces opened fire to disperse an anti-coup demonstration in Mandalay, Myanmar, March 4

Spoiler CNN has some dark footage :

 

[Traitorfish]

Not sure why firing live rounds is deemed necessary. Brutal crackdown just for the sake of it?

And why do police and troops tend to go along with it? I guess they don't consider themselves part of the population? Seems to lend weight to arguments that the police are not part of the people and should be opposed.

Is there perhaps some sociological difference between the people who comprise the protests and the parts of the population from which police and army recruit?

Outsiders tend to see these sorts of protestors as a rising of "the people", and while they may indeed represent a broad swathe of the population, there's often at least a perception within the country that they represent some particular set of interests to which the rank-and-file of the police and soldiers may be unsympathetic or even hostile.

(This would be more to do with explaining the willingness of soldiers than police: police are given very strong incentives to identify themselves with the institutions of the state and to take any challenge to those institutions, for want of a better word, personally; soldiers, especially conscripts, don't tend to have those kinds of incentives, so I think that non-identification with the protestor requires some further explanation.)

 

[Samson]

Is there perhaps some sociological difference between the people who comprise the protests and the parts of the population from which police and army recruit?

Outsiders tend to see these sorts of protestors as a rising of "the people", and while they may indeed represent a broad swathe of the population, there's often at least a perception within the country that they represent some particular set of interests to which the rank-and-file of the police and soldiers may be unsympathetic or even hostile.

(This would be more to do with explaining the willingness of soldiers than police: police are given very strong incentives to identify themselves with the institutions of the state and to take any challenge to those institutions, for want of a better word, personally; soldiers, especially conscripts, don't tend to have those kinds of incentives, so I think that non-identification with the protestor requires some further explanation.)

Al Jazeera reported than the military division that is in charge of the protest control is the 33rd light infantry (IIRC), and that they lead the violence in Rakhine state. There was some hope that the police would be more sympathetic to the protestors cause than the army.

 

[GinandTonic]

There are reported incidents of police and even soldiers refusing orders and even crossing the lines. Problem is if you do that you get shot. Pour encourager les autres. Terribly effective.

 

[sendos]

I wish the protestors well in their demonstrations, but without external support, I don't see this ending any time soon.

Police/military are now raiding homes at night.

 

[Sofista]

Al Jazeera reported than the military division that is in charge of the protest control is the 33rd light infantry (IIRC), and that they lead the violence in Rakhine state. There was some hope that the police would be more sympathetic to the protestors cause than the army.

Unum castigabis, centum emendabis.

 

[Kyriakos]

Al Jazeera reported than the military division that is in charge of the protest control is the 33rd light infantry (IIRC), and that they lead the violence in Rakhine state. There was some hope that the police would be more sympathetic to the protestors cause than the army.

Maybe they are some kind of shock troops/special forces of the army. Those too tend to act like the police (as mentioned by TF) and are basically one with the ruler of the state - more so when the ruler happens to be/have previously been the leader of the armed forces.
Iirc in the fall of Ceaușescu, the police stayed with him till the very end.

Also (again as mentioned by TF) maybe the protests are tied to some specific ethnic/regional group, in which case you can't expect overall support by antagonistic groups.