To your original post/question:
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Spoiler :
That's a very good island so no need to rush things. It's a little hard to judge without playing, but as you suggested I'd focus on growing to health cap with monarchy and reaching double-digit cities over beelining Astronomy as early as possible. With so many river tiles military upkeep is not a big concern.
IW seems prudent as you want these cities settled early. They have great potential and scale well turn for turn. I'd only go CoL before monarchy if there is a chance to snag the religion. Although you may want to adopt HR and caste at the same time anyway (order doesn't matter), depending on HR urgency.
This definitely looks like a drafting game. The land available and leader chosen both call for it.
IW seems prudent as you want these cities settled early. They have great potential and scale well turn for turn. I'd only go CoL before monarchy if there is a chance to snag the religion. Although you may want to adopt HR and caste at the same time anyway (order doesn't matter), depending on HR urgency.
This definitely looks like a drafting game. The land available and leader chosen both call for it.
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Spoiler :
And I'd strongly consider lightbulbing Philosophy this game. Especially if you're not first to CoL (Confucianism).
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