To your original post/question:
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That's a very good island so no need to rush things. It's a little hard to judge without playing, but as you suggested I'd focus on growing to health cap with monarchy and reaching double-digit cities over beelining Astronomy as early as possible. With so many river tiles military upkeep is not a big concern.
IW seems prudent as you want these cities settled early. They have great potential and scale well turn for turn. I'd only go CoL before monarchy if there is a chance to snag the religion. Although you may want to adopt HR and caste at the same time anyway (order doesn't matter), depending on HR urgency.
This definitely looks like a drafting game. The land available and leader chosen both call for it.
IW seems prudent as you want these cities settled early. They have great potential and scale well turn for turn. I'd only go CoL before monarchy if there is a chance to snag the religion. Although you may want to adopt HR and caste at the same time anyway (order doesn't matter), depending on HR urgency.
This definitely looks like a drafting game. The land available and leader chosen both call for it.
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Spoiler :
And I'd strongly consider lightbulbing Philosophy this game. Especially if you're not first to CoL (Confucianism).
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Muskets kill everything with cannon support. While not quite as ridiculous as 1 pop riflemen, 1 pop muskets are still incredibly efficient and serve the same purpose.

Not resource based and has one of "safest" chance to get it if go for it (although window is early and cities should be coastal.. not always map generator likes to give good coastal spots)
per city. If your land is crap then it's huge. If (almost) all your cities are coastal it's also pretty good. But it's also a high chance of getting an useless early GM. Of course if your island has room for 10+ cities all coastal then GLH is a no-brainer, but it's pretty rare.


