Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

Who do you think will win in November?


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Point still stands.

Well your point is odd because I'm saying Bernie got washed in spite of a class-based message, not because of it. This is a direct refutation of your claim that class-based appeals are an untapped reservoir of political capital.

It's also odd because of course Joe Biden won against Trump in 2020 instead of losing like Clinton did.

Do note I agreed we'd have both in a perfect world.

So what? you described it as like a "shotgun" with massive "collateral damage", which btw is pretty much insane.

With identity first thinking in the driver seat, Dems are currently down 2pts nationwide

How do you know the "Dems are currently down 2pts nationwide?" Where are you getting the crystal ball to be sure this is the correct number?

I also doubt you can coherently define the phrase "identity first thinking in the driver seat", which kinda matters because it feels like this whole argument is leading to a what I call a Zardnaar Postulate where, if the Democrats win, they must not have had the "identity first thinking in the driver seat" but if they lose then the identity first thinking was definitely in the driver seat. It's a bit like Chinese Emperors and the Mandate of Heaven.
 
Well your point is odd because I'm saying Bernie got washed in spite of a class-based message, not because of it. This is a direct refutation of your claim that class-based appeals are an untapped reservoir of political capital.

It's also odd because of course Joe Biden won against Trump in 2020 instead of losing like Clinton
I don't have the same read on it. I think the Dem primary electorate voted Biden in large part because they felt he was the most electable. His social connections, and Obama tie, also obviously influential.

That Sanders had any success without those ties speaks to the ideological strength of his positions, to me. Personal charisma, looks, he's not exactly all-American. You see glass half empty, I see it half full.

Harris could begin to deploy similar rhetoric tomorrow, and it'd likely seal a win. It has real persuasive power.
So what? you described it as like a "shotgun" with massive "collateral damage", which btw is pretty much insane.
A guy who tells you you'd have both in a perfect world can't be presumed to have called it bad, or it would in no form exist.

I'm also unsure if you realize it's fairly common to encounter people who think progressives get weird and destructive on identity issues. You've previously stated you think the trailer park may vote mostly Dem, which does make me question how wide-ranging your experience is.
How do you know the "Dems are currently down 2pts nationwide?" Where are you getting the crystal ball to be sure this is the correct number?
I check poll averages.
I also doubt you can coherently define the phrase "identity first thinking in the driver seat", which kinda matters because it feels like this whole argument is leading to a what I call a Zardnaar Postulate where, if the Democrats win, they must not have had the "identity first thinking in the driver seat" but if they lose then the identity first thinking was definitely in the driver seat. It's a bit like Chinese Emperors and the Mandate of Heaven
You can totally win with identity politics. Obama did. Trump did. Clinton didn't. They aided Biden, but I suspect the epidemic was more influential in his victory, and he may have lost without Trump's disastrous response to it.

It's not consistent. It's easily exploitable, particularly when it becomes the focus. If not anchored by more universal, class based policies, it creates lanes for the rich to capture identity groups and muster votes.
 
Odds confirm it's back to almost 50:50 now..
i did not expect that.

Polymarket is one the biggest betting shops now, if not the biggest.


The odds are: 54% Trump, 44% Harris.

 
This is the UK betting market. 1.85 to 2.22 is 54.1% to 45%. The real bookies will not match the markets for Harris, but will for Trump.

Spoiler UK Betting :
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One would assume that UK book makers are very happy now because they will keep the money already placed on Joe Biden.

But money had already been placed on Donald Trump, and they will have to pay out if Donald is elected as POTUS.

But I suspect very little money had been previously placed on Kamala Harris, so they can offer more favourable odds.

A Kamala Harris win would enable them to keep all the money put on Donald Trump, pay out Kamala Harris,
and on current committed stakes likely make a big profit

However as more money is likely be put on Kamala Harris henceforth, the cost to them of a Kamala Harris victory
would grow so they will likely shorten (reduce the favourability) of the odds they offer on Kamal Harris.

Remember the bookies usual strategy is not to waste time calculating probability or try to deduce who will win,
but to progressively adjust the odds so that whoever wins their in-goings will be more than their out-goings.
 
Remember the bookies usual strategy is not to waste time calculating probability or try to deduce who will win,
but to progressively adjust the odds so that whoever wins their in-goings will be more than their out-goings.
Without actually checking, I am sure that is what polymarket is explicitly doing, probably in real time.
 
Any actual election news?
 
Love Harris' response.

In a tweet posted Saturday, the vice president said, “It’s interesting how ‘any time, any place’ becomes ‘one specific time, one specific safe space.’ I’ll be there on September 10th, like he agreed to. I hope to see him there.”
 
Remember the bookies usual strategy is not to waste time calculating probability or try to deduce who will win,
but to progressively adjust the odds so that whoever wins their in-goings will be more than their out-goings.
A friend once explained this for me..
there are "fake bookmakers" which are basically what you describe. This also means they kick out everybody who can take advantage of their unbalanced offers.
They keep those who pick popular bets no matter how bad the offers are.

And there are (few) bookmakers who don't kick out..umm educated..players.
They care about % probabilities. Here you can see more accurate odds.

I never had an account anywhere, but i sometimes find it interesting when i want to see how likely outcomes are.
I use "Pinnacle" to see what's really going on.
They currently have Trump -112 and all others -104, which is very close to even. He has almost no lead left.
 
Oh, by the way, yesterday I thought of another zinger Harris should use.

Whenever Trump next wonders out loud whether she is Indian or Black, she should say, "I'm both. I guess he better hope that the way in which that can happen doesn't appear on his next cognitive test."
 
Oh, by the way, yesterday I thought of another zinger Harris should use.

Whenever Trump next wonders out loud whether she is Indian or Black, she should say, "I'm both. I guess he better hope that the way in which that can happen doesn't appear on his next cognitive test."
This is too wordy to be an effective zinger, and the suggestion he would have another cognitive test would somewhat imply that Harris is conceding the race.
 
I doubt any debate happens.

Trump depends on his uncivil style. He shouldn't agree to debate in any forum that would restrain it, and Harris shouldn't debate in any forum that wouldn't.

I do think think debates are more consequential today than they're often thought to be. Trump has ruined numerous opponents in them.
 
Trump won't debate if there is real-time fact checking.
 
Trump avoids fact checking because all he does is lie. He does not want to be called out in a debate on TV that he is lying. His fans might think less of him almsot like he is a loser.
 
I wonder what's going on in Nevada. Been blue by 3 for both Clinton and Biden, now breaking even in polling.
 
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