Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Sommerswerd]

This loses me 100%.

I want to get 300 bushel a year corn at 7 dollars a bushel. I might start to earn what people consider normative. But I don't think it's going to happen. That's not hedging.

I'm not talking about corn. I'm talking about the Presidential election specifically (also formerly, the Superbowl specifically, as that's where the quote is pulled from, the Superbowl thread). Your considerations about corn are irrelevant and don't analogize here.

The topic is Presidential election 2024. Its election day. Stay on topic

 

[Birdjaguar]

Vance or Watz would then be president?

 

[Canadian Bluebeer]

This is RCP's consensus map. You're suggesting that Trump is going to get everything except for the deep blue states to make for 347 EVs ? Even states like Minnesota whose governor is on the democratic ticket ?

Spoiler :

View attachment 708254

Yes.

So we have the 2 options.

1. Trump wins, the election was fair
2. Trump loses, must be because of epic shenanigans.

So option 3.
3. Trump loses because that's just how the election went
isn't even considered.

When even before the result is known, even before anyone can say anything about anything, the claim is made: if Trump loses, it's rigged.
This, by definition, is based on air.

2: where did you get that from what I said? Nice try. Epic fail.
If there are large vote data dumps at 3am, AFTER they booted everyone else out of the counting areas, THAT is 'suspicious'.
It may be legit, it may not. It SHOULD be checked though. That's it.

3: Well, if he's up by 500,000 votes at 2 am, and then 1 hr later, he's down by a few thousand, .. see #2.
If there are no odd looking spikes, then ok.

That is how MAGA rolls.

Not. projections again.

IMO Trump should have been eliminated time ago, he is the biggest threat to US existence abs world stability in general.

Um, you really, really have no idea.

It's pretty disturbing that a nation that lost hundreds of thousands of young men fighting Fascism in Europe and Japan in the 1940s, is this close to electing a Fascist into the White House.

Another one using words in the wrong way. Please look up the words fascism and fascist in the dictionary. (an older one, that is not PC)

It feels like I'm in an echo chamber, but that's ok. I just gotta poke.
Either way, we're in for an interesting ride.

(how interesting, is yet to be determined)

BTW, I said this was like the 1860 elections months ago. It is.
(I just hope that we do not get the unpleasantness that followed)

 

[Gori the Grey]

All right, @Sommerswerd, but make your call.

 

[Farm Boy]

Vance or Watz would then be president?

That is probably how it would go. But a small, imperfect justice, is still a justice.

If we're being hyperspecific about what people actually want when they don't want either option offered.

Oh! I think my post is in censorland. Well, honest answer. Since it was called upon indirectly. We can add the word "peacefully" in there, it wouldn't change my desire any.

Edit: How much doubletalk required to be socially acceptable?

Spoiler Let's try and skeet the sentiment through, at least :

 

[Gori the Grey]

@Canadian Bluebeer, what you're calling "data dumps" are just precincts reporting once they've tabulated their votes. Depending on how many voters a precinct serves and how many volunteers there are staffing it, it can take a shorter or longer time to tabulate all of the votes. There's nothing suspicious about them; they're absolutely routine (and, frankly, we'd rather each precinct get it right than rush it). The news networks generally have, as part of their graphic, "% of precincts reporting"

 

[Canadian Bluebeer]

@Canadian Bluebeer, what you're calling "data dumps" are just precincts reporting once they've tabulated their votes. Depending on how voters a precinct serves and how many volunteers there are staffing it, it can take a shorter or longer time to tabulate all of the votes. There's nothing suspicious about them; they're absolutely routine.

They don't *look* routine. That's the problem. Perceptions.
Spikes like that are suspicious. I was watching all that 4 years ago.

*IF* that happens again, it will be investigated. Thoroughly.

 

[Samson]

Georgia bomb threats

State and local officials on Tuesday morning addressed bomb threats that came into polling sites in Fulton County, Georgia.

The threats were "non-credible," the officials said, and polling sites in Georgia's most populous county are secure on Election Day.

Georgia poll worker arrested for making bomb threat

25-year-old Georgia election poll worker was arrested on Monday for allegedly sending a letter threatening poll workers to the Jones County Elections Superintendent.

Ga. elections chief blames Russia for bomb threats at polling sites

Raffensperger said officials believe the bomb threats came from Russia, which authorities have already confirmed is meddling in the election process.

“They’re up to mischief, it seems. They don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory,” Raffensperger said. “That tells you a little bit about the Russians. They’re not our friends. Anyone that thinks they are hasn’t been reading the newspapers.”

 

[Canadian Bluebeer]

I saw that bomb threat report. The stupid burns with some people.
(making a threat like that, sheesh)

 

[Sommerswerd]

All right, @Sommerswerd, but make your call.

I got Kamala Harris and Tim Walz all the way.

 

[Gori the Grey]

They don't *look* routine. That's the problem. Perceptions.
Spikes like that are suspicious.

That's why I've given you what to look at. If the "% of precincts reporting" goes up at the same time as new number of votes is posted, then it's just a function of the uneven rate at which various precincts get their numbers together.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

Right wing talk radio and Fox News followed by social media.

The same could be said for anyone you're not voting for anyway.
So this line of argument isn't particularly engaging as a discussion.
I'm sorry.

The overarching question here is why is it that Trump is so unique.

Some time ago, Sommerswerd posted what I thought to be a particularly good assessment of how many in the media said there is no way Trump could win (beginning far back in mid 2015) yet he went on to do precisely that. I believe the term used was "they created a monster, and it ate them".
To me, the campaign from then on became about how Trump "defied all odds", which resonated with many people. They want to get on that bandwagon of defying expectations, that only someone from the elected politician class is destined to be president. And they were proven right (!).
Now I would too argue that, had the media done its job, they would have recognized in 2015 that Trump had little if any policy proposals, not gone to any more of his rallies unless he put out some actual papers about what his plans here, and he would have been rightly ignored.

For whatever reason, that did not happen. And it was not because of his supporters; those people came into the discussion far later when the 2016 Republican primaries were winding down...

 

[Manfred Belheim]

The wish is the father of the thought, few people can honestly entertain thoughts that are not also desires.

I think the whole notion of the concept of "fear" would argue quite strongly against this assertion.

 

[Samson]

Abortion ballot initiatives. I wonder if they could have an effect on the presidential election.

State	Init	Desc
NE	Init. 434	Ban abortion after the first trimester except in medical emergencies or in cases of rape or incest
NE	Init. 439	Establish a constitutional right to abortion until viability, with exceptions for later pregnancies
AZ	Prop. 139	Establish a constitutional right to abortion until viability, with exceptions for later pregnancies
FL	Amdt. 4	Establish a constitutional right to abortion until viability, with exceptions for later pregnancies
MO	Amdt. 3	Establish a constitutional right to abortion until viability, with exceptions for later pregnancies
MT	CI-128	Establish a constitutional right to abortion until viability, with exceptions for later pregnancies
NV	Question 6	Establish a constitutional right to abortion until viability, with exceptions for later pregnancies
SD	Const. Amdt. G	Establish a constitutional right to abortion in the first trimester, with exceptions for later pregnancies
MD	Question 1	Establish a constitutional right to abortion
CO	Amdt. 79	Establish a constitutional right to an abortion; repeal a ban on public funds being used for abortions
NY	Prop. 1	Prohibit discrimination on the basis of sex, including "pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, and reproductive health care and autonomy," among other provisions

 

[Farm Boy]

I think the whole notion of the concept of "fear" would argue quite strongly against this assertion.

I think people flee the whips of their demons harder than they chase the better angels of their nature.

 

[Sommerswerd]

@Klaus Hergersheimer - here is the quote I believe you're referring to:

This has been the case with Trump since the 2016 race. When he originally announced his candidacy it was widely regarded as a joke, a publicity stunt, a mockery and similar... but the news media covered it breathlessly nonetheless, because it was highly entertaining and was drawing big ratings. It was a ridiculous spectacle that the media just couldn't get enough of.

It was that non-stop coverage of Trump at the beginning which elevated him from a joke/novelty act, into a legitimate candidate and ultimately the frontrunner, taking center stage in all the debates. The news media created the monster... and then he ate them. If the news media had acted with a shred of integrity from the beginning, they would have largely ignored Trump and his antics and his candidacy would have likely petered out.

 

[Zardnaar]

Racism in America I would argue is fueled by the wealth disparity. Social media, fox News etc amplify it.

Other nations with bigger social security net don't have the same problems.

Immigration, trade and various failures connected to that are the issues. Voting for Trump's an F you to business as usual.

 

[GenMarshall]

It's as much about influential leftist thinkers broadening the definition of what is racist and then using it to hammer those with different policy preferences as it is actual racism.

More like browbeating people they disagree with.

Of course. But it still sort of demonstrates how racism has become an explanation to anything and nothing simultaneously. I think.

It’s no suprise given a certain person drums up the mantra of “everything is racist, everything is sexist, everything is homophobic, and you have to point it all out” and countless articles from Buzzfeed that normal people whom aren’t terminally moralistic busybodies on Tumblir would roll their eyes at.

"Racist" used to mean that you are violent to or hate people of a different racial group.

It has come to mean "perpetuating societal systems that advantage one race and disadvantage another."

When I think of the term “racist”, my definition lies in the former definition and has been eversince I heard of this word when I was a child of the 80s & 90s. The latter definition, to me, sounds like it came from the fringes of the left or an out of touch academic.

Let's say that insisting that a child use a fork is racist under that second definition, as Joshna Maharaj suggests. When you tell the average person that he is racist for insisting that his child eats with a fork, he thinks you are saying that he is violent toward people of a different race. He feels falsely accused and outraged against the accuser.

Exactly, it’s why I feel as though “racist” (and all the other -ists and -phobes, along with “Fascist”, “White Supremacst”, and “Nazi”) has been reduced to nothing more than name calling. It’s reached to a point where I consider it on the same level of profanity as the F-Bomb and giving the bird to another person. Call me a “racist” and I’ll respond in kind with showing you the bird and telling you to “screw off”. A different reaction than @Ordnael ‘s where he just laughs it off.

It’s no different about a decade ago when woke activists (then called SJWs) on Vice and Buzzfeed chided gamers calling us sexist and problematic for liking attractive female characters in video games or blaming the white streight cishet male audience for a subpar performance of a piece of media advertised as being “diverse and inclusive”. Don’t go around saying “it’s not made for you” then turn around and start crapping on white straight cishet males when that piece of media does not perform to your expectations.

It’s why there were many men who went with Trump because it’s seen as flipping the bird and a form of “screw you” to insufferable leftists.

 

[Kyriakos]

I wish to predict that the winner will say they represent all americans and wish to mend the schism.
Half the country will see it as a disaster and become even more resentful.
The other half will reassure that a terrible candidate was thankfully kept out.
The younger people will largely remain indifferent- they will see decades of elections. The older people will despair - for some this may be their last.

It's a terrible outcome, really. What's worse about it is that for the above who wins is immaterial.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Edit: How much doubletalk required to be socially acceptable?

Spoiler Let's try and skeet the sentiment through, at least :

More like a curse rather than a blessing... invocative of the Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times".

Although... Leonidas' delivery comes off with a genuine tone of pity... like he feels sorry for Ephialtes, because he knows Ephialtes feels guilty and ashamed and will have to carry his guilt and shame for the rest of his life... but at the same time he is cursing him by wishing him a long life of being tortured by guilt and shame.

Good movie.

In the context of this thread... what it reminds me of is the philosophical question I brought up earlier about the German people that elevated Hitler's party into power. I wonder if they feel ashamed/guilty now, in their twighlight years, or if they feel defiant at the scorn that must be theirs.

I wonder how Trump voters will feel decades from now. Will they proudly admit to voting for Trump back in the day, or will they dodge/deny the question? I wonder if the result of the election today will have an impact on that.