Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[JollyRoger]

I would imagine many if not most dem politicians are gun owners. Particularly after Paul Pelosi. Lotta crazy people out there.

And most politicians that want guns in schools, bars, State Fairs, and everywhere else will not let you bring a gun to their rallies.

 

[EvaDK]

Also, who instigated the new articles about Melania Trump's nude model shoot?

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if Donald is the actual culprit; 'hey everybody, look how HOT my wife is!! Please vote for me and she might do another one in the oval office!'

 

[Broken_Erika]

Georgia elections board to require hand count of ballots​

The US state of Georgia has ordered a hand count of ballots cast in November’s election, potentially creating further delays in a system that took days to deliver a definitive result four years ago.
Georgia's elections board voted 3-2 to require the hand count, despite the objections of state officials and poll workers.
Around five million votes for president were cast in Georgia in 2020, with Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in the key battleground state state by a margin of around 12,000.
While hand counting of ballots is common in many countries, including the UK, it is extremely rare in US elections.

The rule passed on Friday requires three poll workers in each of the state’s 6,500 voting precincts to begin counting ballots on election night.
The move was opposed by the state’s top election official, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, who warned that a hand count would introduce the possibility of “error, lost or stolen ballots, and fraud".
In a phone call following the 2020 election, Trump pressured Raffensperger to "find 11,780 votes" – a move which along with other alleged efforts to overturn the result led to criminal charges against Trump and some of his allies.

• Election polls: Who is ahead, Harris or Trump?

Raffensperger publicly tussled with Trump but also ordered a hand recount of the state's ballots, which slightly changed vote totals but confirmed the overall result.
Trump’s supporters on the Georgia elections board argued that hand counting will make the forthcoming election more secure.
"What I don’t want to do is set a precedent that we are OK with speed over accuracy," said board member Janelle King.
Opponents of the move included county elections supervisors, poll workers and voting rights organisations, several of whom testified at a hearing on Friday.
They warned of delays and possible chaos caused by changing the rules so close to the election. Early voting in Georgia starts on 15 October. Election day is on 5 November.
Ethan Compton, the election supervisor for Irwin County, said that ballots had already been sent to members of the military posted overseas.
“The election has begun," Mr Compton said. "This is not the time to change the rules. That will only lower the integrity of our elections."
The board's chair, John Fervier, a Republican, voted against the rule for that reason.
"I do think it's too close to the election," he said.
Fervier warned that the board may not have the legal authority to require hand counting, and the change is almost certain to face legal challenges.
Voting rights organisations say hand counting would complicate the voting system and is less accurate than machine counting.
Many Republicans, meanwhile, believe Trump’s oft-repeated but false claims that the voting system is riddled with fraud and has been “rigged” by Democrats.
During an rally in Atlanta in August, Trump called the board members "pit bulls fighting for victory".
Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, said of the election board prior to the vote: "They are fully trying to set up a scenario in which they could refuse to certify an election whose results they don't like."
The rule change came as early voting got under way on Friday in other states including Virginia, Minnesota and South Dakota.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7jewdje17o

 

[Cutlass]

I would imagine many if not most dem politicians are gun owners. Particularly after Paul Pelosi. Lotta crazy people out there.

It was true long before that. There's just a lot less 2nd Amendment fetishing and waving assault rifles all over the place.

and Black Nazi... Don't forget that he's a self-described Black Nazi.

Not a joke, or sarcasm, for those who don't know yet, he is literally a self-described Black Nazi...

and he says he's not dropping out.

The "Good Christian" people of North Carolina will probably overlook that and elect him anyways.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Even before this, he wasn't polling well. He has a lot of very repellent policies and attitudes.

 

[Cutlass]

Even before this, he wasn't polling well. He has a lot of very repellent policies and attitudes.

Will it change how the state goes in the presidential race?

 

[Gori the Grey]

That's hard to say, but I myself am putting NC in Harris' column.

 

[KMRblue1027]

It's fairly common wisdom that I admittedly don't know is true that the top of the ticket can boost the rest of it but I don't know if the reverse has ever happened. NC is gonna be a good test case for that theory as Robinson is down like 13 points compared to the dead heat top right now.

 

[Zardnaar]

So to win Trump needs to repeat 2020+ Pennsylvania and Georgia?

 

[danjuno]

So to win Trump needs to repeat 2020+ Pennsylvania and Georgia?

One possible path, but winning without AZ or WI would be an edge case. GA->AZ->WI is a more realistic path, based on 2020 margins.

Will it change how the state goes in the presidential race?

Questionable, NC Ticket split the last two races.

 

[Zardnaar]

One possible path, but winning without AZ or WI would be an edge case. GA->AZ->WI is a more realistic path, based on 2020 margins.

If he loses a single state he already has any theiretical win is a lot harder?

Eg if Harris carries Pennsylvania she probably carries most of the mid west?

One possible path, but winning without AZ or WI would be an edge case. GA->AZ->WI is a more realistic path, based on 2020 margins.

If he loses a single state he already has any theiretical win is a lot harder?

Eg if Harris carries Pennsylvania she probably carries most of the mid west?

 

[Gori the Grey]

I think that's correct about Pennsylvania. But remember we might not know it for a while. PA doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until after election day.

So it takes some time to report their results.

And if these rule changes in GA hold, that will slow reporting there (and sow confusion) (the very aim of the rule changes).

If Harris pulls off some unexpected flip--my Iowa, for example--it will make it feel she has won, even with some important states not reporting. FL or TX, it's lights out. A canvasser in TX said the most common question he gets is "can my husband find out how I voted?" If women can be reassured on that point, we might see some eyebrow-raising results.

 

[Lexicus]

For the truly curious, here is the full debate between Kamala and Trump.

The debate also occurred in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Tuesday September 10th.

Trump's 1st assassination attempt was also in Pennsylvania where he was campaigning.

I'm getting sick of Pennsylvania.
There are other states, we matter too

You should be in favor of abolishing the electoral college. Allowing the 30,000 dumbest people in Pennsylvania to decide who gets the nuclear football is possibly the worst political system ever devised in human history

 

[Sommerswerd]

A canvasser in TX said the most common question he gets is "can my husband find out how I voted?"

For mulitiple reasons... SMFH that this is a question in 2024, but yeah if women are asking that in Texas, chances are good they are ready to break ranks with their MAGAnaut husbands all over the country.

Here's to hope...

 

[Strong Reaction]

and Black Nazi... Don't forget that he's a self-described Black Nazi.

Not a joke, or sarcasm, for those who don't know yet, he is literally a self-described Black Nazi...

and he says he's not dropping out.

He is so ...... awesome just a walking contradiction.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Eg if Harris carries Pennsylvania she probably carries most of the mid west?

Yeah. More or less.

I think she will. It's probably close now, but by November, I think she leads.

Trump seems to have lost his edge. Campaigning poorly, golfing a bunch. He mignt still stumble onto a good attack line, but his attacking instincts that were canny enough to win in 2016 seem to have faded.

 

[Zardnaar]

You should be in favor of abolishing the electoral college. Allowing the 30,000 dumbest people in Pennsylvania to decide who gets the nuclear football is possibly the worst political system ever devised in human history

Worst vaguely democratic system anyway.

Proportional representation won't drastically fix USA but might keep the crazy in check.

For mulitiple reasons... SMFH that this is a question in 2024, but yeah if women are asking that in Texas, chances are good they are ready to break ranks with their MAGAnaut husbands all over the country.

Here's to hope...

Texas seems to be trending purple.

Having it flip in the next 12 years won't be a massive surprise.

 

[EvaDK]

I reckon that close race states such as Iowa flipping, presupposes that the GOP nominates a Fascist clown, convicted fraud and conman like Trump, unacceptable to moderate voters leaning Republican. Had they nominated a moderate Republican instead, he or she would likely be leading the polls.

So, in a sort of twisted logic, Trumps and MAGAs grip on the GOP is actually increasing the odds for a Democrat in the White House until 2028.

 

[Gori the Grey]

For mulitiple reasons... SMFH that this is a question in 2024, but yeah if women are asking that in Texas, chances are good they are ready to break ranks with their MAGAnaut husbands all over the country.

And the other meaning I read into it is that these women are not going to be responding to telephone polls. (or if they do, they won't give the answer that corresponds to their vote). My hunch is that Harris will exceed polling by about 2%, so I'm quietly adding that to her total when I read polls. Not quite 2, maybe. 1.6, let's say.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Republicans absorb a political shockwave in must-win North Carolina​

Controversy swirling around a North Carolina Republican candidate for governor is causing political turbulence in a must-win swing state for Donald Trump. The BBC asked conservatives there what they make of the alleged scandal.
It was during a regular meeting of the Johnston County Republican Women’s committee that they heard the news.
All around North Carolina on Thursday, Republicans and Democrats alike had been waiting for what was billed as a bombshell exposé about Republican Lt Gov Mark Robinson.
The furniture maker-turned-politician, who is running to be the state’s first black governor, had called himself a “black Nazi” on a porn website more than a decade ago, according to a report by CNN.
Robinson, who identifies as an evangelical Christian, branded the report "tabloid lies". The BBC has not independently verified CNN’s claims.
But when the news finally did break, it barely caused a stir, at least not among this polite gathering of women in Johnston County.
“If the accusations are accurate, it’s something for him and his wife to deal with. It’s not my business. It’s a marital issue,” said Adele Walker, 52.
Soon afterwards, the group discussed their planned $200 donation to his campaign, in which he is already trailing the Democratic candidate Josh Stein, the state's attorney general.
“What we decided is that we’re going to donate even more money to Mr Robinson,” she said.

The opinions of conservative women like Walker are being closely watched this election, not just in North Carolina, but across the US. The Tar Heel State has one of the closest races in the country with November's election looming.
Trump had previously offered a glowing endorsement of Robinson, calling him "Martin Luther King on steroids".
Even before the CNN exposé was published, Robinson was under scrutiny.
He has faced backlash over 2019 comments in a Facebook video about abortion on demand, when he said women should be "responsible enough to keep your skirt down".
In 2021, he said children in schools should not be learning about "transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth", and later rejected calls to apologise.
“I think it's fair to call the Robinson campaign a dumpster fire at this point,” said North Carolina State University political scientist Steven Greene.
There are fears among some Republicans that Robinson could be a political albatross, causing their voters to stay home, or driving Democratic turnout.
North Carolina has remained “stubbornly Republican”, said Greene. Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win the state in 44 years, and he could only succeed once, in 2008.
But the state’s growing urban centres have tilted the political scales towards Democrats, who hope this is the year they can turn North Carolina blue.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released on Thursday, before the CNN report about Robinson was published, showed Harris leading Trump by one percentage point.
That is still well within the margin of error, which means the race is very much up in the air.
This state is essential for the Republican White House candidate, Greene said.
“It's a lot harder to see Donald Trump getting to 270 without North Carolina than Kamala Harris,” he said, referring to the number of electoral college votes needed to clinch the US presidency.

Scott Lassiter, a Republican running for state Senate, expressed disappointment that Robinson did not drop out before a state deadline on Thursday, allowing another candidate from the party to take his place.
Lassiter said Robinson is a gift to Democrats, who “would love for every race on the ballot to be about Mark Robinson at this point”.
Once a regular at Trump’s campaign events in the state, Robinson will not attend the former president’s rally in Wilmington on Saturday, according to reports.

• US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?
• Seven swing states set to decide the 2024 US election

But those close to Robinson are sticking by him.
Guilford County chairman Chris Meadows, a Republican, said he’s known Robinson, who's from the area, for years.
“Our position is that these are unsubstantiated allegations, accusations," he said.
“In the age of the improvement of AI, I really don’t put any credibility in any of this until he admits it.
"CNN has a great deal of credibility problems and they have for several years.”

In the end, Greene said the presidential race will all come down to voter turnout, and it’s unclear how Robinson will affect that.
He was already known for outlandish statements. People’s minds are probably largely made up, he said.
It certainly seemed that way in Johnston County.
One Republican voter, who did not want to be named, said he would not vote for Robinson, who he said “had a loud mouth”.
But he has no problem voting for Trump.
“I don’t know what Trump knew about Robinson. The news of Robinson has no effect on me,” he said.
Evelyn Costelloe, 66, who has voted for Republicans in the past but not recently, said she will back the Democrats because of their stance on abortion. And Robinson’s comments didn’t help either, she said.
“I don’t know about all these accusations, but I do know the stuff he’s said. Stuff like that makes me want to vote for sure,” she told the BBC.
Given that Trump only won North Carolina by about 75,000 votes in 2020, even a little bit of political damage spilling over from Robinson could make a difference.
For now, however, North Carolina remains a deep shade of purple.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2kqqzx75wo