Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Cutlass]

Cheney is as much a part of the elite as any of the Democrats. Trump is not. This is about class struggle.

Trump is the elite, struggling for the elite. Trump didn't cut your taxes, cut the taxes for the elite. Trump didn't cut regulations for the masses, he cut regulations for the elite.


Trump is as elite, and as elitist, as it gets in the United States of America.

 

[choxorn]

Cheney is as much a part of the elite as any of the Democrats. Trump is not. This is about class struggle.

A man born rich who spent most of his life as a pseudo-billionaire socialite isn't part of the elite?

 

[Voidwalkin]

It is better thought of as a values struggle.

 

[Cutlass]

It is better thought of as a values struggle.

And Trump's values is to fudge Main Street to line the pockets of Wall Street.

 

[Voidwalkin]

And Trump's values is to fudge Main Street to line the pockets of Wall Street.

I agree with that.

It's just secondary to most Trump voters, imo.

Ohio is Trump territory, so I don't see many national ads. Only Sherrod Brown vs Moreno gets ads. The attack ad I see repeatedly against Brown heavily features swimmer Lia Thomas. "Something something Brown allowed biological MEN to compete in women's sports".

This will unfortunately be effective. Even the most reasonable people I worked with had no problems with transphobia. It was actually sorta shocking.

Fair # will happily ignore economic interests, if indeed they do actually perceive the dems to further that(many don't, usually, welfare is given as the example), simply because they believe trans people an affront to their values or their religion or whatever.

Broadly, of course, these differences in value preferences are not simply limited to trans people. It's really traditional hierarchy and small town composition vs more urbanized egalitarian norms.

 

[Cutlass]

I agree with that.

It's just secondary to most Trump voters, imo.

Ohio is Trump territory, so I don't see many national ads. Only Sherrod Brown vs Moreno gets ads. The attack ad I see repeatedly against Brown heavily features swimmer Lia Thomas. "Something something Brown allowed biological MEN to compete in women's sports".

This will unfortunately be effective. Even the most reasonable people I worked with had no problems with transphobia. It was actually sorta shocking.

Fair # will happily ignore economic interests, if indeed they do actually perceive the dems to further that(many don't, usually, welfare is given as the example), simply because they believe trans people an affront to their values or their religion or whatever.

Broadly, of course, these differences in value preferences are not simply limited to trans people. It's really traditional hierarchy and small town composition vs more urbanized egalitarian norms.

The fact that Trump appeals to many bigots, other than standard racists types, is just the same as other fascists. That doesn't make him less elitist. It makes him more elitist.

Racism is elitism: "Our races is better, they are less than we are, the shouldn't be treated the same!"
Transphobia/homophobia is elitism: "Our way is better, they're just a bunch of perverts!"
Religious bigotry is elitism: "Our God is the real God, and our way of worship is the real way of worship, they're just heretics and atheists!"

There is nothing in Trumpism which is not elitism.

 

[Voidwalkin]

The fact that Trump appeals to many bigots, other than standard racists types, is just the same as other fascists. That doesn't make him less elitist. It makes him more elitist.

Racism is elitism: "Our races is better, they are less than we are, the shouldn't be treated the same!"
Transphobia/homophobia is elitism: "Our way is better, they're just a bunch of perverts!"
Religious bigotry is elitism: "Our God is the real God, and our way of worship is the real way of worship, they're just heretics and atheists!"

There is nothing in Trumpism which is not elitism.

If you figure out a way to convince the majority of Trump voters to sideline their traditionalism, you could have a very lucrative career as a political strategist, I suppose.

I tried where I could. I don't think I got very far with my efforts, honestly. Just never got much buy in.

 

[Cutlass]

If you figure out a way to convince the majority of Trump voters to sideline their traditionalism, you could have a very lucrative career as a political strategist, I suppose.

I tried where I could. I don't think I got very far with my efforts, honestly. Just never got much buy in.

I'm not sure you realize just how much time, effort, and money, money, money, money, money, has gone into pushing the narrative.

 

[Strong Reaction]

So, is this model based on popular vote, or electoral college? Will he 'change' which his prediction is based on after he sees the result?

Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn’t

The history professor is one of the few credited with predicting Trump’s 2016 win. There’s just one problem: he’s rewritten history to obfuscate that his model only predicted the popular vote…

thepostrider.com

I'm not an expert in election models nor am I a statistician. His model is interesting and for sure he has detractors. I put more faith in his model rather than polling thats for sure. As for all the claims made in the the Postrider article they make a lot of claims but are some of their points are quite subjective. Its an windbag of an article too i.e. long and boring.

"After combing through Lichtman’s published work and interviews, we’ve come to two main conclusions" Did they really "comb" through his published works or did they cherry pick two anomalies and disregard everything else?

Lichtmans Response to their claims should you care to read it. Spoiler long and boring

https://thepostrider.com/letter-allan-lichtmans-response/​

cliff notes: the postrider disputes are pared down to two points of contention:

2016’s Popular Vote vs. Electoral Vote Dispute, and Lichtmans "claiming to Have Ceased Predicting the Popular Vote “Since 2000”

So, I am not prepared to throw the baby out with the bathwater yet.

 

[Core Imposter]

Trying to apply that model to this election mess is like trying to paint stripes on a tiger.

 

[Birdjaguar]

So who is he predicting for 2024?

 

[Core Imposter]

And you're jealous, envious and your big fat bottom lip sticks out too much, quit whining. Boo bloody hoo.

Moderator Action: Don't go after other members, focus on the topic. 1 point for trolling. - Quintillus
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[Core Imposter]

I see Trump for what he is, but he is a guy who got 73 million votes after a first term, and it deserves a little respect.
Trump did not get us in a war, the economy was good until the virus hit and he was the full-on target of a witch hunt from day one and there are not many men or women in this world who can stand up to being an object of hate and derision on a scale like that. And he has never shown anything but that he wants the best for the people of this country.

 

[Strong Reaction]

So who is he predicting for 2024?

He chose Kamala or rather the 13 keys system predicts Kamala.

I see Trump for what he is, but he is a guy who got 73 million votes after a first term, and it deserves a little respect.

Hillary got somewhere around 74 million votes, do you respect her? I mean water we dune hair. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=water we dune hair
Not a Hillary fan but when people say Trump has x amount of votes, I think about Hillary and practically no one likes her yet she got all those votes what does that mean?

Trying to apply that model to this election mess is like trying to paint stripes on a tiger.

Why on gods green earth would I want to paint stripes on a tiger? Point taken though there is no exact science that can prove whos gonna win. The, model, can get you close but that's about all it can do.

 

[Core Imposter]

Hilary is likeable enough.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Hilary is likeable enough.

And Biden got even more votes than either Trump or Hillary!

Obama had 8 years of economic growth and Trump just rode that rise a bit longer. Trump did not get us out of Afghanistan and he had 4 years to do so. He just kept it going just like he did with Obama's economy. Trump's singular piece of legislation was a huge tax cut for the rich.

"In 2017, Republicans took control of the House, the Senate, and the presidency. The very first piece of legislation that they passed — the act that would tell the world, ‘These are the values we espouse above all others’ — was a bill that made it easier for the mentally ill to purchase guns. They called it House Joint Resolution 40."

In reality it was the second. The first nullified coal mining regulations put in place by the Dept. of the Interior.

 

[Core Imposter]

Mentally ill people should have the right to defend themselves from all the murderers and rapists that the liberals have allowed to overrun our southern border. Just like anybody else. The truth is that the left wants to disarm us so that they can take away our liberties because they think they are better than us and want to be in control. Just exactly the same thinking as Xi Jinping.

Nullifying big government regulations is God's work. Bless him.

 

[Core Imposter]

Where is Farm Boy and is he okay?

 

[PPQ_Purple]

One thing I newer understood about the american mindset is this focus on self defense and the tools to do so. If your country is so dangerous that the average person needs to even consider self defense at all the answer is NOT to give them guns but to fix your society until it is no longer so dangerous.

 

[Zardnaar]

One thing I newer understood about the american mindset is this focus on self defense and the tools to do so. If your country is so dangerous that the average person needs to even consider self defense at all the answer is NOT to give them guns but to fix your society until it is no longer so dangerous.

Yup it's not normal. Outside of war zones or failing states gun crime is very rare.