Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

Who do you think will win in November?


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I'm not saying that some criticism on the Internet instantly changes someone
I didn't say that you did. We don't need to move the goalpost. Its not about "instantly", its about at all. I simply reject the notion that criticizing people on the internet "changes" them into Trump voters.
but I also dispute that everyone who voted for Trump has some inherent Trumpism in their DNA
But you can see that's a strawman, right? I never said that or anything like that, so there's nothing for you to "dispute" there.
millions of people flipped from Obama to Trump, people flip politically all the time,
Yes
we could spend hours diagnosing the reasons why
Yes
the extreme in-groupism & purity testing of online 'leftists' is certainly a reason.
No
No one who votes Trump is 'blaming it on someone else'.
Huh? You are "blaming it on someone else", you literally just blamed in the prior sentence that I quoted right above this and I quote "online leftists" and their quote "extreme in-groupism & purity testing". You don't see that this is you, explicitly blaming "the left", "criticizing people online" for those people voting for Trump?:confused:
 
Again, what I am addressing/disputing, is the claim that criticizing people online turns them into Trump voters.
It's not the corrupt Trumps and Blagojeviches far away, it's the people mentally close that you don't like(the strongest predictor of which is whether or one thinks they are liked by them). Collegiate social networking seems to be standing up as what, still the most reliable vote predictor?
 
But Harris did a pretty good job, I think, of not explicitly taking on "woke" issues, so there's only as much anti-woke animus directed toward her as toward the left in general.
To give her credit, at least she’s not speaking with Tumblir talking points. In fact it’s her message of, what I interpreted as, giving me permission to leave the MAGA cult (for years I’ve been in the wavering/doubting stage and never taken the jump since I felt I would be judged harshly), take an escape route out of the pipeline and rejoin the liberals and the Democrats and being treated like a human being with feelings who left a cult instead of a harden criminal.

Walz is the guy that I want to have tea with and feel comfortable telling my story and he tells me that I’m brave for leaving a cult instead of shaming me for falling down the alt-right pipeline watching “SJW Pwned No. 271” as carthasis because of a bunch of tankies made fun of me for being a SocDem and preferring electoralism over a violent revolution.

I realize that I will not have my vindication on this point until election day.
I wish to make that vindication a reality, but I’m only one person in a safe blue state. The only thing to prove that I’m changing is posting my filled in ballot that I voted for Harris.
 
You choice of words belies your belief that voting for Trump is a disease
:dubious: Dude WTH? :confused:

Are you OK?:eek:
the fact that it's seen (by you & many others) as some sort of zombie-bite that makes a person somewhat less than human
Narz! What are you talking about??:confused: That's not a "fact" its just nonsense! :crazyeye: Zombies?!?:dubious: C'mon man :shake:
I'm not saying you believe that
My guy, you literally just said, quote " it's seen by you". You can't say that and then try to sweep it under the rug by saying "I'm not saying", what you literally just said. On a related note, this is a pretty spot on example of what @Gori the Grey very articulately and succinctly hit upon. First, I will quote him rather than paraphrase:
Rather, the "right" is increasingly defined as people who want to speak their mind without being called out. And the left is increasingly defined as "no, I'm going to call this behavior out for what it is." So people sort themselves into those two categories. Since one political candidate is selling that precisely, "Don't tell me what I can't say," people whose speech meets with social condemnation gravitate toward that candidate. That's what Trump is selling: a world where you don't have to censor your own speech out of concern for other people.
I point this out to note that your (@Narz ) comment(s) that I quoted immediately above are displaying that dynamic. You say something explicitly, then immediately declare that you don't want to be held accountable for what you just said. Of course that doesn't automatically make you a Republican or on "the right" or a Trump voter (and Gori's theory does not claim it does)... what I am simply pointing out is the irony that the phenomenon that Gori identified is playing out in this very conversation.
 
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But you should be aware, Sommer, that the person I kind of feel I'm arguing with is you.

It's just that I'm saying that "right" and "left" aren't functional terms any more. Our country is split between people who think you should be mindful of social inequities when you speak and those who don't want to be expected to do that.

And on that polarity, Narz is correct: it's the censoriousness of the one side that drives people to the other side.
 
Bigot, racist, sexist, islamaphobe, etc etc
OK got it. So like I said, anti-woke censorship and similar. Essentially, like @Gori the Grey says, people don't like being called out for what they say. They want to be able to speak their mind without being opposed or criticized for it. They don't want any accountability, so they complain about people holding them accountable, and point to that (being held accountable) as their excuse for voting for Trump. But often the real reasons they like Trump is because they were already (quoting you), "a Bigot, racist, sexist, islamaphobe, etc etc" in the first place.
I won't argue that many conservatives fit these labels
OK, but so folks should just ignore it so they don't hurt their feelings? Because if someone correctly points these "labels" out, that person is responsible for that (again quoting you), "Bigot, racist, sexist, islamaphobe, etc etc" voting for Trump? If that's your position then I disagree. Like I've said, sometimes (not always), one of the real reasons they like Trump is because they were already (quoting you), "a Bigot, racist, sexist, islamaphobe, etc etc" in the first place. So in those cases, being called out for it online didn't make them into a Trump voter.

However, thinking about it... I will concede that getting outraged about online criticism could possibly motivate someone who is disposed to support Trump into actually voting, where they might have just not bothered. So in that sense, I'd have to say/admit you could be right.
but hand wringing away Trump's support as solely caused by these
No one is doing that in this conversation, so that's another strawman. As I've said, people have lots of reasons for being Republican, conservative and for being Trump voters.
 
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Quite the opposite. I relish the rare times that I can mix it up with you because we agree on so much.

Imma come up with new names for the two poles.
 
Quite the opposite. I relish the rare times that I can mix it up with you because we agree on so much.

Imma come up with new names for the two poles.
EDIT: Also, this conversation has alerted me to something I was ignoring that @Narz is right about and I was wrong about. Online criticism can certainly make people outraged enough that they act on it.

It is most certainly possible that a person who likes/supports Trump, or who is just a run-of-the-mill Republican, but can't be bothered to actually go out and vote, might get so angry at something someone says to them online, that its enough to motivate them to go vote. So on that point I was wrong @Narz . Online criticism could motivate a Trump supporter to actually go out and vote, thus turning them from a Trump supporter/follower/admirer, into an actual Trump voter.

EDIT: And thinking about it some more... that means I owe @Gorbles an apology too, so sorry Gorbles. I (the royal I) can say things to someone online who is or was inclined to go vote for Democrats, Harris, etc., that makes them so mad/disgusted/exasperated, that they decide to refuse to vote out of spite.

I still don't think that makes their choice "my fault" as ultimately, its still their choice, but I don't think I was giving enough consideration to the possibility that my words online could actually have an impact on someone's voting choices. I'm still not trying to convince you, or anyone else to vote for Democrats BTW and I still don't gaf if my comments online influence your (the royal your) vote ;). But I do acknowledge that my words can have an effect and I apologize to you for insisting so forcefully to you that this was not the case.
 
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I didn't say that you did. We don't need to move the goalpost. Its not about "instantly", its about at all. I simply reject the notion that criticizing people on the internet "changes" them into Trump voters.
People's opinions are far more rooted in emotion than in reason. Facts have a depressing tendency to be powerless against "wanting to believe", hence the cognitive dissonance that is so starkingly apparent in so many discussions.
You underestimate the cumulative effect of being exposed repeatedly to perceived repulsive/annoying behaviour from visibly politicized opinions, which slowly mold the overall "emotional perception" of such or such group by a person and, as such, the overall tendencies to vote for or against it.
 
People's opinions are far more rooted in emotion than in reason. Facts have a depressing tendency to be powerless against "wanting to believe", hence the cognitive dissonance that is so starkingly apparent in so many discussions.
You underestimate the cumulative effect of being exposed repeatedly to perceived repulsive/annoying behaviour from visibly politicized opinions, which slowly mold the overall "emotional perception" of such or such group by a person and, as such, the overall tendencies to vote for or against it.
See above. You are correct. I absolutely underestimated exactly what you describe.
 
See above. You are correct. I absolutely underestimated exactly what you describe.
Don't worry, you're far from being the only one. I'm pretty sure that Trump being able to draw such numbers despite being so appallingly incompetent, crass, dishonest, selfish and downright dangerous for the very country that he wants to rule, can only be explained by accumulated spite from years of exposition to annoyance (wether this annoyance is legitimate or not, and wether it manages to justify going so far, are a whole different can of worms).

In fact, it's easily noticeable that many pro-Trump posters (here and in others sites) are loudly claiming that "both sides are crap", but that "at least, Trump [...]" (which is nearly always a pretty transparent pretext that imply resentment) and gloat in "owning the libs". This, to me, shows that at some level they KNOW that Trump is garbage, but they hate the other side so much that they latch at some supposed redeeming quality he doesn't have, just to get a reason to be able to vote for him.
 
And on that polarity, Narz is correct: it's the censoriousness of the one side that drives people to the other side.
"someone telling me to not be a racist made me make an actively worse choice" demonstrates two things (minimum, possibly more)
  1. They have no skin in any proverbial game. It doesn't matter to them (on a macro scale it might, in some measurable way, but in the ways that immediately matters to them in their daily life, it does not).
  2. They don't have convictions or morals beyond being selfish. Ultimately. Selfishness drives a lot more human behaviour than we give it credit for, and I'm not here to make a derail out of it (short version is: good and bad, but we're shaped by environment for reasons that often run counter to that - being a better person is still both reasonable and achievable for people out of the gate. Yes, that's the short version).
Also, the right are absolutely censorious. They just do it over things you wouldn't think it would be important to note. Maybe things you don't recognise as things that should push people away. And that is why the core of "censoriousness" is, at its core, a "both sides are bad but the left is worse" argument, which is very funny because the way your country is leaning, you might want to consider the amount of people leaning the way Trump is, vs. the mythical minority of swing voters that are decided by "somebody called a racist a racist".

And on top of that, it never stops to consider the people pushed to be disenfranchised (on the left). Disenfranchisement is always the voter's fault (because they're progressive), censoriousness is always not the voter's fault (because the cause is progressive).

It's tiring. And it won't work out for y'all as a tactic. The worse the scolding of progressives gets, the worse the return will be. Which is the height of irony, because this tangent came about because of alleged scolding of the right, by progressives.

EDIT - @Sommerswerd

I see your apology and recognise it! I appreciate where it's coming from and the clarity with which you said it. I ultimately don't think it's necessary, in a good way. Everyone I've ever known, and that includes folks on this forum, have always voted (when shared with me) the "right" way, when it counts. But I understand what you're saying with this, and I respect it.

To me, let's say this happens. I have no statistics, I can't speak for anything. But statistically, it must be a blip on the radar. To imagine the cross-section of people in any specific community, so needled after years of interactions that they then choose to vote against their own interests in a specific way? I'm sure it happens, but I think it's more likely to happen based on tactical / strategic lines (e.g. when the vote basically doesn't count) vs. out of pure spite. And in both cases, the margins are going to be low.

So low that while some races can absolutely be that close, there will be other mitigating factors that have easier fixes (however hypothetical; better campaigning, better policy decisions, etc, et al) than a handful of people having a decade or more of forum history (or similar).

I just wish people who have gone right-leaning, some very overtly, had the presence of mind to recognise that. Instead they're much happier just using it to point out how bad "the wokes" are, instead of realising what they're caught up in (disclaimer for readability given quotes in this post: not aimed at Gori). I'm pretty far-left, I'm fed up with a ton of things, and yet I've voted in nearly every election I've been eligible for. I think I spoiled a single ballot, once, where there were literally no good choices, and no margins for change (local elections, overall % didn't matter and wasn't going to).
 
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To give her credit, at least she’s not speaking with Tumblir talking points. In fact it’s her message of, what I interpreted as, giving me permission to leave the MAGA cult (for years I’ve been in the wavering/doubting stage and never taken the jump since I felt I would be judged harshly), take an escape route out of the pipeline and rejoin the liberals and the Democrats and being treated like a human being with feelings who left a cult instead of a harden criminal.

My guy, you've always had permission to leave the cult and be accepted back into polite society as a human being, you just have to like, actually leave it instead of being like "I wanna leave but if anyone's a little mean to me I'm jumping right back in," and you have to accept that being a part of the rest of society means that sometimes people will criticize you for your actions, not because they're trying to be mean to you but because you did or said something that hurt them. And hey, I get that it can be hard and uncomfortable to do that, but it's part of growing as a person.
 
OK got it. So like I said, anti-woke censorship and similar. Essentially, like @Gori the Grey says, people don't like being called out for what they say. They want to be able to speak their mind without being opposed or criticized for it. They don't want any accountability, so they complain about people holding them accountable, and point to that (being held accountable) as their excuse for voting for Trump. But often the real reasons they like Trump is because they were already (quoting you), "a Bigot, racist, sexist, islamaphobe, etc etc" in the first place.
:thumbsup: Spot on.
 
Why?
And a followup: Why is it important that Washington Post endorse someone?

to me, it sounds like Bezos recognizes that it isn't in the interest of a paper to side with their readers...or at least, to try and side with what it thinks its readers want...
I wonder why it sounds like that to you, someone with noted and frequent conservative opinions.
Let me get this straight: Democrat voters are boycotting a newspaper for....not taking sides, for being neutral?

I mean, that's what media are supposed to be.
Hey, we're two for two.

To be clear, I hold clear and owned progressive opinions pretty much across the board. This is a neutral opinion on the position of the posters based on the content they post. I figure this shouldn't have to be said, but somebody's going to try and take it the wrong way, so.
 
Let me get this straight: Democrat voters are boycotting a newspaper for....not taking sides, for being neutral?

I mean, that's what media are supposed to be.
But we all need to wage the obese crusade.
 
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