Using a wonderful odds calculator someone designed, this is what the combat 3 berserker with holy shield had against my 14 strength, combat 5, guerilla 1 paladin with commando.
Hits recieved Chance
0 0.00037719379144280675
1 0.0022878905763228925
2 0.00692565837805047
3 0.014761504656083775
Average HP left if wins 37.96905034731934
RecCombatResult.ChanceToWin[cv[0]][1]=0.024352247401899944Chance to kill exactly 1 units 0.024352247401899944
The result of the combat on the other hand was one ful health berserker and one dead paladin, the 14 strength, combat 2 flurry attacking the same berserker on a forest hill tile did the same thing. The berserker is a once a month occurance, not once a turn... I don't know what's not being added, because it only seems to happen to me, not the ai, but I'm losing near impossible odds regularly, and purely impossible odds almost as often. This can't just be a fluke of the random number generator, not with the casualty rates I'm taking.