Five Take On The World (Conquests, Deity)

[Nad]

From the turns I've just played, we simply don't have enough units to attack anyone. By trading and brokering we've gone down the peaceful route, and that has been accompanied (quite rightly) by building infra. If we want to go to war we need 20-30 turns to build up units first...so if we had decided to go to war before gozpel's last turn, we would still now be building up units for that war! We are seriously outnumbered in terms of units, we can't just think that once deals expire we can go to war, we can't, we don't have the units. We might be able to raze a city or two in the openeing turns of war, but we would be risking losing cities of our own, such is the number of AI troops.

IMHO, we have chosen this route and now must stick to it. Indeed, given our tech situation we are in an excellent position, and can afford to let key buildings complete while we broker our way through the middle ages until we have the key unit... we cannot compromise now, by the time we built up a sufficient force of horsemen the AIs would be close to the industrial age. Horses vs pikes (or hoplites) is about manageable, which is what we were originally planning, but horses vs muskets (or rifles!) is distinctly messy.

 

[microbe]

This looks like a challenging game, I'll be watching this. Good luck!

 

[Greebley]

I got it.

I will work on infrastructure - including culture (though secondary to tech buying power).

 

[Greebley]

Preturn: Everything looks good to me. I make no changes.

IBT:

530 BC: No change on the diplomatic front. MM Edrine for Granary(granary before growth)

510 BC: Zzz

IBT: Iroquois demand and get silks.
Russia starts Leo's
Edrine: Granary->Market

490 BC: Russia has an Invention Monopoly

IBT: I spot a Greek knight.

470 BC: I rush Iznik's aquaduct.. No change in Diplo.

IBT: America declares war on the Russians.
Istanbul: Market->Library
Iznik: Aquaduct->Library (It needs culture expansion and Lib allows Market to start sooner. Feel free to switch).

450 BC: Iroquois pick up Chivalry. This is too bad, it would have been nice to get a discount on a tech.
I trade America Engineering for 2 workers and 9 gold. I bet they are soon dead if workers are hiding in their only city.

Theology and Invention is now know by 3 civs, but no 2-fers exist so I hold off.

IBT: Babylon demands 51 gold. I may need more military to stop threats. I give it as I don't think it is a good time for wars.
Uskadar: Granary->Library
Greeks are building Sistine chapel.

430 BC: Ok the Iroquois have Invention but not Theology. I trade 673 gold + 24 gpt + ivory for Theology from India. Invention costs Theology + 17gpt from Iroquois. I was hoping Babylon would have some gpt to give us for Invention or Theology, but they are poor (23 gold total) so no trade. I decide to try the PP run and put 10% sci into it.

BTW, it looks like the Greeks are winning the war as 2 Iroquois towns are now Greek.

IBT: We lose our Iron.

410 BC: Our gold drops to 4 gpt.

IBT:
Istanbul: Library->Trebuchet

390 BC: Trade Monotheism to the Vikings for some gold and 6 gpt. Our current gols is -1 now. I switch to lone scientist (+7 gold).

IBT: Americans are no more
Uskadar is now Greek. BTW there have been a LOT of greek Knights going past,
Not only that but the Greeks finish Sun Tzu's AND the Great Library.

Welcome to the wonderful world of 4CC.

370 BC: No good trades to be had. We are still up Theo and Invention over Babylons.

IBT:
Istanbul: Trebuchet->Settler.

350 BC:

Notes: I think we are better off with 5 towns. The spot marked with arrows below would be safe from filps and provide good gold once we have a harbor (and market). I think it worth the 2 pop to build. I set the Capitol to building it to build it ASAP, but we can build it in Bursa instead.

Is the Printing Press gambit worth lowering Bursa's pop growth by 2 (our lone scientist). Its a real gamble though and we may want to veto it.

Its wasn't good news, but not unexpected either. Now we have to worry about losing Edrine as well though.

Here is a picture and a save:

The Save

 

[hotrod0823]

Now that is rough. We all saw it coming and I agree your spot is best for right now.

I don't think there is any point in taking on the Greek knights right now. I think we have to wait until our UU and hope we can push them back to give us some breathing room. But given the amount and quality of their units and their Wonders it is going to be a difficult if not impossible road.

Hotrod

 

[Nad]

Ouch!

 

[Greebley]

I am not sure the best way to procede. Pushing for Sapah of course. I think it might also be good to get some Trebuchets. From my AW games, Artillery units are the key for good kill ratios. If Edrine also flips before we get Sapahi we may no longer have a choice. We camp our Knights 2 squares outside the city (so we are not within the boundaries if it flips. If/when it flips we can attack immedicately Our minimum goal is to hold Edrine; destroying the two ciities that are limiting Edrine is an important goal as well. For the initial knight assaults we play it as an AW - defensive with 20-1 ratio if we can do it. When the attacks become lighter we try to go for destruction of Uskadar and Thessilonica.

So: A builder game for the most part, but a build up enough forces to handle the flipping of Edrine. If we get lucky we get Sapahi before it flips. If unlucky we lose the city.

The alternative is to build a force to raze Uskadar and Thessilonica pre-emptively. We would want to negotiate for Iron in that case to build a force of knights. If we had 2 knights for each defender in the two cities we could probably do it. After destroying those two cities we fall back and go to the AW scenario above. Our knights could be destroyed, so we would want Trebuckets and some knights to pick off incoming troops. With those two towns gone, our border would expand and troops might not be able to attack on the first turn with any luck. We could probably figure out if that would be true ahead of time.

 

[Aggie]

Oh! I'm up? Sorry Got it.

 

[Aggie]

Could I be swapped? I need a bit of rest. I should be able to play as from Wednesday

 

[Nad]

No problem, Aggie:

Hotrod...UP NOW
Aggie...ON DECK

 

[hotrod0823]

I think I can get to it tonight

Got it!

 

[Greebley]

So far this game is like the books for my two year old son:

Five little cities making up the core,
Along came a culture flip and then there were four.

I wish you luck for avoiding the next verse hotrod

Edrines flip chance is a real concern that I am not at all sure how we can dodge.

 

[Nad]

That may be so, but Edrine is our second city, it is very close to our capital, it has 2 culture buildings and a very large garrison. It would be majorly unlucky if that should flip, and I don't think it will (famous last words....)

 

[Aggie]

We could use the flip calc of anarres...

 

[Nad]

I don't have access to civ so I can't get culture figures, neither can I tell exact distances to capital, but using some estimates the chance of flip seems to be less than 1%, so we should be okay in the near future unless we're unlucky.

I'll calculate the flip chance accurately when I get home this evening.

 

[Greebley]

I made a guess at the values and got 0.60% chance, or a 5.84% chance of flipping every 10 turns.

This seems high enough to have knights ready to grab the city back if it flips, but not high enough to go to war.

Garrison helps very little - it would take 36 units to supress flip chances.

I used 1:3 for the distance and 6 times the culture for the greeks over us with 6 tiles under foreign control. These values were my best guesses seemed similar to Nads implied guesses. I am at work and can't check the save unfortunately. Hopefully, Nad will be able to give us accurate numbers tonight.

I am hoping that I am estimating high - that we have gained in culture and the Greeks don't have six times our culture or their capitol is farther away that civ distance 15 which was a total guess.

WLTKD halves the chance of flipping. It might be worth seeing if building a cathedral, temple, and market (colosseum?) can get us into WLTKD with a reasonable lux rate.

 

[hotrod0823]

4vs World

350BC (0): Can you say the hole is getting deeper. At least we are in it with tech. Okay we are in tough shape but I think Edrine is well garrisonned and has some culture. The question is how to get back to a 5CC. We have a settler being built and the only other option is to attack Greece. Not a pretty picture is it.

INBT: Our good local friends declared war on Russia. So russia and Iroquois hopefully will keep Greece busy.

330 BC (1): OMG! The Greeks just got another wonder and can build crusaders out of the Knights Templar. We will have a settler next turn. I can't find an iron deal to be had anywhere. The greeks have but will not deal. Ack our deals are all in the wrong direction and our treasury is going backwards by 10 gpt. With no relief in site for at least 5 more turns. Gunpowder is out but we can't afford it.

INBT: Lovely! Alex wants and gets 23 gold.

310 BC (2): UGG! Our settler is built and our gpt gets worse -15gpt with only 55 in our treasury.

INBT: Vikes joined the fight against the Iroquios and Russia in an alliance with the Greeks. The Russians sign on India to help against the Vikes.

290 BC (3): We still have deals out with almost all civs so we can't enter the alliance market at this time. We are bleeding gold -11gpt with 40 in the bank.

270 BC (4): Iznik builds a library and starts a market. It is kind of a backwards town and really needs every thing so this can and probably should be changed. Found Izmit, a fishing village of sorts on our southern coast. Yuck! 5CC and fishing village don't go to gether well. Starts on a baracks. BTW Istanbul is building a Cathedral, we can't affor any more units and it will need it at size 12 so why not now. Our economy improves to -5gpt with the newest town .

250 BC (5): Not much... Happy to say the Greek knights are continuing to go East.

INBT: Iroquios and Greeks make peace. We wanted that battle to be drawn out a bit didn't we.

230 BC (6): [dance] our Economy makes a sudden improvement as a few big deals expire. only deal I can do right now is silks for gems. I decide to take it. Silks to India for gems and 37 gold. I think it is either fight he monster that is Greece and die or turtle and peacefully go about our business until we can mount an attack on some one anyone.

IBNT: Babs and India join up against the Vikes.

210 BC (7): Bursa builds a courthouse and starts on a Longbow. We need some military and they are as good as any for a quick offesive blow. Invention is out and our neighbors start on Leo's. If we had the gold we could pull a 2fer with Education and Guns.

190 BC (8): Endrine will finish a much needed market next turn. A couple other building are due to complete soon. I just don't know if building obsolete units is worth the gpt. It is a tough call. Greece has 2 iron for sale but wants an arm and a leg for it. We have a few more deals ending soon and will have more options. Hope Greece will decide to leave us alone for the time being.

170 BC (9): Endrine builds its market and starts a cathedral. Russians start on Copernicus . MM a bit with the scientist and lux to improve our gpt. But will have to re evaluate next turn.

150 BC (10): Still a no go on tech deals there is a 2fer to be had but we can't afford it. OVerall a boring do nothing turn. Could get interesting really quick if Greece wants to take us out. We have no defense and frankly not sure when we will have one.

heres the save:

http://civfanatics.net/uploads7/5vsworld150BC.zip

 

[hotrod0823]

I did leave the knights in town and they can be moved out but I think our chances of flip that close to the capital are low. But I could be wrong.

 

[Greebley]

Here is a picture of what FlipCalc gives for our flip chances.

Over 6% per 10 turns seems too high to risk losing 5 of our 7 knights. Note that I assumed a garrison of 3 with our current garison of 6 it would reduce the flip chance to about 6% per 10 turns

Note that the distance to Athens is a bit over twice the distance (11 vs 5 so distance is in our favor but certainly not by enough to combat the 5.5 times more culture of Greece.

 

[Aggie]

got it. Tricky situation with Uskadar.