Florida is on!

[bombshoo]

I don't think Christie ever said he didn't want to be Veep, did he? He simply said he wasn't interested in the Presidency itself.

I thought he did? Technically if you take the position of VP you better be at least somewhat interested in the Presidency though

Eh, Daniels doesn't really strike me as being a VP. I don't think Christie will be picked, John Thune, at the moment, has no name recognition, and Nikki Haley gives me the impression of Sarah Palin lite. I'm thinking it will be Rubio or Tim Pawlenty, who has been working with Romney's campaign.

Rubio seems pretty serious about not wanting in. Obviously there no way of knowing how honest he is being about that. I had completely forgot about Pawlenty (but that's something extremely easy to do).

 

[Ajidica]

Mittens wouldn't want T-Paw as they both appeal to the same demographic: Well-off white males who aren't as crazy as Santorum or Gingrich.

 

[downtown]

Based on information you have recieved from contacts in the Mormon Mafia, who is the most likely person to be Romney's VP?

Bob McDowell, Susana Martinez, Chris Christe and Marco Rubio (although others are right, it doesn't appear that he wants in this year).

 

[IdiotsOpposite]

Not saying I agree or even support Mitt Romney, but if I were him I'd be begging and pleading Marco Rubio to be my Veep. He's the single best choice you can pick.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

What does it mean for the race to " go to the convention ?" I know what the convention is , I just assumed the primaries and caucuses simply decided the matter .

I hope it's not all over soon . It's my favourite American show

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

Bob McDowell, Susana Martinez, Chris Christe and Marco Rubio (although others are right, it doesn't appear that he wants in this year).

Did you mean Bob McDonnell of VA?

 

[downtown]

Did you mean Bob McDonnell of VA?

Ah yeah, thats who I meant. McDonnell.

 

[NickyJ]

What does it mean for the race to " go to the convention ?" I know what the convention is , I just assumed the primaries and caucuses simply decided the matter .

It means that the race won't really be decided until the Republican National Convention, which will nominate the candidate. Anybody could win, and it will be a long, hard campaign.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

It means that the race won't really be decided until the Republican National Convention, which will nominate the candidate. Anybody could win, and it will be a long, hard campaign.

Yes , but why won't it be decided ? Isn't this year long sideshow designed to do just that ?

But gee I sure hope it does "go to convention " .....all the combined awesomeness of the last year packed into 1 action packed week . I'd subscribe on pay TV and take the week off work

 

[NickyJ]

Yes , but why won't it be decided ? Isn't this year long sideshow designed to do just that ?

Because it could be extremely close with the delegate count, and when it's a really close race, what can you do other than letting it run its course to the convention?

 

[Cutlass]

Yes , but why won't it be decided ? Isn't this year long sideshow designed to do just that ?

But gee I sure hope it does "go to convention " .....all the combined awesomeness of the last year packed into 1 action packed week . I'd subscribe on pay TV and take the week off work

The delegates that are assigned by the parties in response to the state primaries are required to vote, in the first round at any rate, for the candidate that won that state. If a candidate has a majority of committed delegates to win, then the convention is a formality just ratifying what the primaries have already decided. However, if no candidate has a clear majority than the convention votes over and over again until one candidate wins the majority of the delegates. When that happens the delegates are freed up from being committed to a candidate and can vote for whoever. And whoever might just win. Any member of the party can win the nomination, regardless of whether they were even a candidate previously. They could draft Jingle or Rubio, for example.

 

[Antilogic]

It means that the race won't really be decided until the Republican National Convention, which will nominate the candidate. Anybody could win, and it will be a long, hard campaign.

Yes , but why won't it be decided ? Isn't this year long sideshow designed to do just that ?

But gee I sure hope it does "go to convention " .....all the combined awesomeness of the last year packed into 1 action packed week . I'd subscribe on pay TV and take the week off work

Also, with 4 candidates, it is possible that no candidate will receive the 50% required to win the nomination before the convention. If the convention has to select a candidate, the delegates are typically required to vote for whoever their state tells them to for a few ballots, then they can change who they support based on whatever deals they start cutting.

There could be a series of a dozen ballots in a week, and they could even coalesce around and nominate someone who is not in the race right now (who has much higher favorability ratings than the current candidates). It's something we haven't seen recently, but was very common back in the 19th century.


EDIT: virtual cross-post with Cutlass, but yeah, basically what he said.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Because it could be extremely close with the delegate count, and when it's a really close race, what can you do other than letting it run its course to the convention?

I dunno ? Thus me asking . I just figured if it was close , well some guy won in a close finish . They do the votes in all the states and heh presto ! Dude picked .Clearly my understanding of the whole primaries system is lacking so I'll do some research and get back to you if I need to .

EDIT....thanks Antilogic and Cutlass .....Nicky J , love ya mate but you failed this time . And after hearing about this process if it's tight , I'm doubling my wish that it goes to the convention . Sounds freaking awesome

 

[uppi]

That picture is everything that is wrong with First Passed the Post.

Can anyone explain to me, why the primaries/caucuses are first-past-the-post in some states, (roughly) proportional in other states (or using a funny mix of both). It is an internal contest of the Republican party, so they can make up whatever silly rules they can come up with, but is there a rationale for it?

 

[Bestbank Tiger]

Everyone missed the big story: Florida had an election and didn't bungle it in grand fashion.

 

[Takhisis]

Any of the four candidates being voted by anything more than a couple dozen people means the entire state is bungled up.

 

[NickyJ]

Any of the four candidates who aren't Romney being voted by anything more than a couple dozen people means the entire state is bungled up.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Antilogic]

Can anyone explain to me, why the primaries/caucuses are first-past-the-post in some states, (roughly) proportional in other states (or using a funny mix of both). It is an internal contest of the Republican party, so they can make up whatever silly rules they can come up with, but is there a rationale for it?

Some state governments issue guidelines for their primaries, caucuses can be organized entirely by the state-level party without any interference from the state government. State-level party organizers are also jockeying for influence and negotiating with the national-level party, so there's that factor as well.

Largely, this is a modern patch over the classic 19th century convention model, where state-level parties would send delegates, they would negotiate, and then they would select the party's candidate. These delegates would try to negotiate for posts or offices in exchange for their support for the candidate, or might have a personal connection with one of the candidates, motivation differed from person to person.

 

[BasketCase]

Ironic how Florida got sanctioned for moving its primary up too far, and then ended up being central to the election results anyway. Likely next election, every state in the Union is going to move its primary up even more. To, like, November 6th 2012.

 

[Antilogic]

Ironic how Florida got sanctioned for moving its primary up too far, and then ended up being central to the election results anyway. Likely next election, every state in the Union is going to move its primary up even more. To, like, November 6th 2012.

I think the key difference was although they had fewer delegates, they turned it into a winner-take-all state. Given the last contests had some form of proportional splits, it makes Florida more decisive.