GOP Poll Part II, now updated with actual candidates

[amadeus]

Nope. Bush would have won.

Neither you nor Cutlass have any idea who would have won. The people that voted for Perot could have split their votes evenly, voted for another third party, or not even voted at all.

 

[Elrohir]

I really don't think anyone but Romney has a chance, barring the economy going completely downhill. And he's a long shot, especially if he can't get anyone to like him.

 

[jtb1127]

I'd like to see a third party with good core ideas. But if you want to do something, feel free to start up the Whig party again whenever you like.

What I am saying is that American politics shouldn't be confined to two possible parties, each withe completely different ideas and values. And in order to get a government office you have to receive a nomination from on of them. And while you're in office you need to live up to the expectations of the party that nominated you.

 

[Bestbank Tiger]

Neither you nor Cutlass have any idea who would have won. The people that voted for Perot could have split their votes evenly, voted for another third party, or not even voted at all.

I think there's a big chunk who would have stayed home. If I remember correctly, under-30 turnout was higher that year than it was in 2008.

 

[Cutlass]

Neither you nor Cutlass have any idea who would have won. The people that voted for Perot could have split their votes evenly, voted for another third party, or not even voted at all.

For this paper, the most important finding from the regression
results summarized in Table 3 is that the Perot vote increased the
incumbent president’s share of the major party vote in both the 1992
and 1996 elections by drawing primarily from votes that would have

http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj18n1/cj18n1-7.pdf


CATO says Perot helped Bush more than Clinton, and Clinton won anyways.

 

[Cynovolans]

Nope. Bush would have won. For the voting percentages, Clinton got 43%, Bush got 38%, and Perot got 19%. Perot got mostly GOP support, so add even 15% to Bush's vote, and Bush would have had 52% and Clinton 48%, giving Bush the win.

Popular vote doesn't decide the election.

 

[LucyDuke]

I can definitely see Bachmann running as Tea Party if she has a good turnout in the primaries and the GOP nominee isn't crazy enough. Romney, or Gingrich... I'm not familiar enough with the rest of the field to guess about the rest. It would, of course, be terrific for Obama, which is the biggest reason she wouldn't.

 

[Miles Teg]

Gingrich is almost physically incapable of winning the nomination, let alone the election. Dude was probably the biggest non-economic reason Bill Clinton got re-elected, and every Republican from the 90s knows that. There's a reason he got kicked out of the speaker's seat by his own party. And then he kickstarted his campaign by dissing Paul Ryan, Republican Idol.

Besides, the dude's entire campaign staff quit on him two weeks ago.

 

[Junius]

The idea that Bachman would run as a third party candidate seems to be more of a liberal dream than a real possibiltiy. Seems like a hardcore republican to me. She would destroy any chances she has in a future race by doing that. Plus she would still lose of course. Palin has a better chance of doing that because the republican establishment doesn't really care for her and she knows it, but i would still put that at about 10% chance.

 

[GenMarshall]

My big question, which ones ARE going to bring America back to work? And not spout out endless rhetoric.

 

[JollyRoger]

If I was told one of these candidates woud actually become President, I would take Gary Johnson. If I picking who I want to run against President Obama, gimme Palin.

 

[Camikaze]

Moderator Action: Green Party posts/discussion split off to its own thread.

 

[Wolfbeckett]

Hope you enjoy wasting your vote.

Hope you enjoy supporting a system where both major parties can screw the people all day long without consequence because they are immovably entrenched out of a misguided desire to not "waste" your vote.

 

[JollyRoger]

Hope you enjoy wasting your vote.

I went to law school with the future mayor of Farmer's Branch, Texas, Tim O'Hare. Here is our conversation in a Texas classroom in early November 1992:

TO: Who'd you vote for?
JR: Perot.
TO: Guess you threw your vote away.
JR: Who'd you vote for?
TO: Bush
JR: Guess you threw your vote away.

 

[NickyJ]

I've come to a decision: Rick Perry. He seems genuine enough, and he seems straightforward on the issues. Plus, he is more likely to garner support from conservative and libertarian puritans since he doesn't have any past "issues".

 

[Ajidica]

he doesn't have any past "issues".

Except, you know, being a governor from Texas. Governors from Texas don't have the best track records as president.

 

[NickyJ]

Except, you know, being a governor from Texas. Governors from Texas don't have the best track records as president.

The only people who use that as an excuse to not like him are the people who are afraid of him giving Barry Boy a good 'ol Texas whoopin.

 

[Cutlass]

The only people who use that as an excuse to not like him are the people who are afraid of him giving Barry Boy a good 'ol Texas whoopin.

Not to mention the disgust of Perry being traitor enough to even suggest secession.

 

[NickyJ]

Not to mention the disgust of Perry being traitor enough to even suggest secession.

You've heard of things called "jokes", right? The allowance of Texas to secede has been an ongoing joke in Texas. We all know that he wouldn't secede from the union. "Perry being traitor"? Hah. Those are the words commonly spoken by people who've made a conspiracy theory out of Perry's words. I daresay that the idea of Perry being a traitor is akin to the idea of Obama being Indonesian.

 

[Cutlass]

You've heard of things called "jokes", right? The allowance of Texas to secede has been an ongoing joke in Texas. We all know that he wouldn't secede from the union. "Perry being traitor"? Hah. Those are the words commonly spoken by people who've made a conspiracy theory out of Perry's words. I daresay that the idea of Perry being a traitor is akin to the idea of Obama being Kenyan.

Not at all. There literally is no reason to think of Obama as a Kenyan. Yet "joke" or not, Perry has publicly advocated treason.