Yeah I um doubt you're getting rid of the virus by August mate
Great Recession of 2020
- Thread starter Kaitzilla
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Yeah I um doubt you're getting rid of the virus by August mate
EnglishEdward
Deity
Quite so, but a very slightly different normal..
We have noticed a decline in social distancing while shopping in Norwich this last week.
hobbsyoyo
Deity
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Where I live, social distancing all but evaporated by mid-May, right around the time it became widely realized that the <65 crowd is largely unaffected by the virus. People here don't give two craps about anyone but themselves because while it's known the young don't die in large numbers, it is also known that they can spread it asymptomatically to those who do die in large numbers. They just don't care.
And it does not help that the GOP and the president have had a constant drum beat of claiming all of this is an over reaction so they can force people back to work and cut unemployment payments. We are just now seeing the virus spreading into rural communities that have most fiercely resisted all quarantine efforts.
The recovery hasn't started yet.
America’s Economy Is Healing Slowly
The U.S. economy didn’t deteriorate as badly in May as it did in April. That is a far cry from saying that it is getting better.
The Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday said its index for nonmanufacturing activity climbed to 45.4 last month from 41.8 in April. That came on top of its report Monday that its manufacturing index had climbed to 43.1 from 41.5. Anything under 50 indicates worsening activity.
One important factor to note is that both indexes have been distorted by supplier-delivery-time components. Usually when deliveries slow it is a sign that suppliers are struggling to meet rising demand and business is picking up, but now it is because the coronavirus crisis disrupted supply chains around the world.
The manufacturing index also was flattered by an inventory component. Usually when manufacturing is hurting, inventory levels swell as orders collapse. In the present case, supply-chain disruptions had the opposite effect. Strip out those components and both indexes show stronger gains, but from lower absolute levels, with the nonmanufacturing index rising to 38.2 from 29.6 and the manufacturing index climbing to 32.4 from 27.4 Despite the use of the terms “expanding” and “contracting,” care needs to be taken when using either index to gauge how quickly the economy is growing or shrinking. Both are diffusion indexes that are essentially based on a simple question: Are things better or worse this month than they were last month? If more than half of companies surveyed say the components of an index are signaling stronger business, then the index is above 50. If more say conditions are worsening, it is below 50.
So this week’s reports don’t say quite how bad things were in May—only that they were worse for most companies, but not for as many as in April. That isn’t to say we learned nothing from the reports. The underlying message is that even though restrictions to stem the spread of the coronavirus eased last month and more Main Street businesses were able to at least partially resume operations, the crisis is far from over. Indeed, since the majority of companies merely need to experience some tiny improvement for the indexes to snap back, it shows the economy remains deep in the woods. The disruptions the crisis caused are only causing more damage,
while the hits demand is taking as people and businesses struggle to pay bills remain significant hurdles to recovery.
With luck, the indexes will both soon rise above 50—if not in June, then maybe in July. That would count as evidence that regardless of whether the recovery will be the V-shaped one investors are hoping for or the shallow one economists fear, some sort of recovery will have begun to take hold.
For now, though, the immediate problem is that the recovery has yet to begin and the hole the economy will need to dig itself out of is only getting deeper.
—Justin Lahart
Lexicus
Deity
Yeah, people are really letting social distancing go here in DC as well...I find the whole thing bizarre. I'm in my twenties and still absolutely terrified of the virus.
The OECD just published its June report with forecasts on GDP, unemployment for 2020 and 2021.
http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/june-2020/
There are three interactive graphs in the link. Good simple overview. And not that "always" overly too optimistic IMF view. Though also these numbers are imo less differing between countries than I think we will end up.
Graph below showing single wave hit and hit in case a second Covid wave takes place.
http://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/june-2020/
There are three interactive graphs in the link. Good simple overview. And not that "always" overly too optimistic IMF view. Though also these numbers are imo less differing between countries than I think we will end up.
Graph below showing single wave hit and hit in case a second Covid wave takes place.
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
I dont see the US bouncing back given the world economic slow down
Trump was treading water with its 1 Trillion dollar yearly deficits.
Trump was treading water with its 1 Trillion dollar yearly deficits.
I think that for the first 12-18 months it will not matter that much for the "richer" countries whether the national debt will grow strongly.
The most important factor I think is how well the hybrid of state plan-economy and free market will function in gearing up. If you spend that money and all your potential working hours of the people wisely, I expect no real issues.
And how well an intelligent and well supported social distancing can keep the population functioning without high death rates.
What also matters is how big the private debt is in countries. Some countries have hardly private household debt compared to other countries.
The recipe for such countries can be the same as after WW2 where progressive income tax transferred wealth from the high income groups to the state. This can just as after WW2 be done in a slow fashion.
The Netherlands had after WW2 a national debt of 230% of GDP. Nobody panicked about that with austerity or so to get it down fast. Progressive income tax on the rich and GDP growth brought that back to 80% in 1958. No sweat. Just making sure that everybody had a job and many public infra was build like housing, roads, etc and still room for much investments in the people with strongly growing education.
NL not the only country who followed that path.
Creating "debt" to get money... that money is as valuable as that you use it to direct the allocation of your true resources... your working hours, your machines. your knowledge build up.
Lexicus
Deity
No Russia in the list.
More on the Fed and its bond buying programs
Stocks Rebound as Fed Broadens Stimulus
BY MICHAEL WURSTHORN AND ANNA ISAAC
Stocks staged a reversal after the Federal Reserve signaled its latest efforts to support financial markets through the coronavirus pandemic.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung more than 1,000 points from its low to its high before closing up 157.62 points, or 0.6%, to 25763.16. Stocks within the blue-chip index and other major benchmarks got a boost after the Fed said it would expand its bond-buying program to include debt from individual companies.
Stocks had opened sharply lower on reports of an uptick in coronavirus cases in the U.S. and China, curbing optimism over the pace of the global economic recovery and extending the market’s pullback from last week. But opportunistic stock pickers helped narrow those losses as the session wore on, pushing up shares of companies closely tied to the reopening of the economy.
The gains accelerated in afternoon trading when the Fed said it would broaden a previously announced program to purchase bonds of U.S. companies to include a portfolio of corporate bonds based on a broad, diversified index.
“This is yet another sign the Fed is going to do everything under their power to help liquidity,” said Ryan Detrick, a senior market strategist for LPL Financial. “Worries over a second wave? No worries, the Fed is here.” Mr. Detrick and other analysts and investors
have pointed to the central bank as a stabilizing force for stocks over the past several months, noting that the bounce from the market’s lows in March was driven by a Fed willing to use monetary policy more aggressively to stimulate the economy.
That was apparent Monday even though the Fed’s announcement reflected commitments the central bank had previously made in March and April. The S& P 500 also flipped higher, advancing 25.28 points, or 0.8%, to 3066.59, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 137.21 points, or 1.4%, to 9726.02. The rally continued in Asia. At midday Tuesday in Tokyo, the Nikkei was up 3.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 3.2% and Australia’s S& P/ASX 200 was up 3.9%. S& P 500 futures were up 1.6%.
Still, analysts said the market continues to be stuck in a tug of war between investors who are concerned about a possible resurgence in corona-virus cases and the long-lasting impact economic shutdowns will have versus those who see stocks trading at depressed prices.
“A lot of investors are really bullish,” said Brad Lamensdorf, portfolio manager for Advisor-Shares Ranger Equity Bear ETF, calling the trend “disturbing.” Relative-strength indexes and other metrics suggest stocks have been overbought, Mr. Lamensdorf said. From his perspective, some stock prices might seem attractive on their own but uncertainty hangs over nearly every aspect of the market, from how some industries, like travel, will be altered by the pandemic to what industrial demand will look like later this year.
Gauges of investor sentiment indicate investors are less fearful than they were a month ago. Airlines, for example, were deep in the red early. But American Airlines and Delta Air Lines ended the day little changed. Shares of cruise lines, another industry that has struggled during the pandemic, also bounced off their lows. Carnival closed down 54 cents, or 2.7%, to $19.44 and Royal Caribbean Cruises dropped 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $60.83. Technology stocks, including shares of Facebook and Netflix, notched modest gains to help pull the broader stock market higher. Tech stocks, which have grown to become a substantial part of the stock market, have been important in helping major indexes recover from their March lows.
—Joanne Chiu contributed to this article
MONDAY’S MARKETS
Details Spelled Out Of Bond Buying
The Federal Reserve on Monday spelled out in greater detail how it will execute a previously announced program to purchase bonds of U.S. companies that were highly rated as of mid-March. The central bank has deployed a $250 billion lending program to buy outstanding corporate bonds. The central bank said it plans to begin making those purchases on Tuesday by creating
a portfolio based on a broad, diversified market index of corporate bonds. The index will be made up of all the bonds in the $9.6 trillion corporate-debt market from companies that satisfy the program’s criteria, including that companies were investment-grade rated as of March 22 and that securities can be no more than five years in duration.
The Fed began purchasing debt through the program on May 12 by buying exchange-traded funds that invest in corporate debt. It has been buying those assets at a pace of around $300 million a day.
The Fed first announced its intentions to buy corporate bonds on March 23 and on April 9 expanded the program to include firms that had investment- grade ratings. But in the weeks since then, the central bank had announced a series of requirements for participating companies that analysts believed would limit those purchases to only the most desperate issuers of debt. “Those requirements made me think it would be more of a backstop,” said Nathan Sheets, a former Fed economist who is now at investment-advisory firm PGIM Fixed Income. “This makes it seem like it’s going to be more of a proactive market-purchase facility.”
The debt-purchase program for previously issued corporate bonds is being backed by $25 billion from the Treasury to backstop potential losses. The Fed is introducing a separate $500 billion program for newly issued corporate debt, which is backed by $50 billion from the Treasury.
—Nick Timiraos and Sam Goldfarb
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Zardnaar
Deity
Economic contraction numbers?
Lufthansa has just got a 9 billion euro bailout. It has 139,000 employees total, they said there are 100,000 in Germany. That is 90k per employee,and I think the employees are being paid by the government ATM. This is an airline that cannot do anything at the moment. It has to be that all this money is going to service debt, most secured on the planes. So this is effectively enormous amounts of taxpayer money going to prevent ownership of the Lufthansa fleet being transferred from the airline to the banks, and then presumably hired right back to the airline if the state so wanted.
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
Traitorfish
The Tighnahulish Kid
Trump spent a lot of time claiming that the Democrats were receiving votes from dead people; perhaps he hopes he can sway these voters with some generous pay-outs?
EnglishEdward
Deity
Well here in the UK, one of our zombie landlord corporates, INTU, has gone into liquidation.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...owner-intu-expected-to-go-into-administration
This corporate was on the rocks before Covid 19, I am surprised it lasted this long.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...owner-intu-expected-to-go-into-administration
This corporate was on the rocks before Covid 19, I am surprised it lasted this long.
Lexicus
Deity
Just to reiterate how utterly goddamn stupid this is:
https://time.com/5858539/us-covid19-cases-surge-two-month-high/
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