How is everything not collapsing in the US?

[AdamCrock]

Cash$ is like girls - everyone wants it (males at least), but only few know hot to truly get it

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

EU was hit harder than US: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-EN.pdf/cbe7522c-ebfa-ef08-be60-b1c9d1bd385b

US gdp dropped by about 9% and given that a year have 4 quarters that is how you get the 33% drop. Spain on other hand lost a staggering 18% of its gdp, twice as much as US. Also unlike for example wars, the panademic don't destroy the infrastructure so quick recovery may be possible since the GDP drop is largely due to people consuming and investing less than normally.

And if you think this is still that bad, consider that europe after second world war had a lower gdp per capita than it had in 1913 before first world war 32 years earlier which is extremely bad, the pandemic may lose a year or few years of growth, two world wars lost like 3 decades of growth, so if a such major recovery is possible, a recovery from the pandemic should also be possible.

Here is a video about it:

 

[Valka D'Ur]

I don't think there's any doubt that the US is going to undergo or is already undergoing a.."readjustment" (to put it in clinical, impersonal terms), but collapse? Warrantless hyperbole, imo.

There are more kinds of "collapse" than just financial. There's social, and isn't Trump trying to find some way to postpone or cancel the election this year?

The sooner the Americans get rid of Trump, the sooner his ways and attitudes will slow down in my province. It's an infestation right now, and there's a view from outside Alberta that our province is collapsing.

In various ways, of course. Interesting that one of the first things Jason Kenney decided to open up was a golf course. Politicians and their corporate buddies/masters gotta have a playground.

Our own Minister of Education is a cross between that awful woman in the Harry Potter movies and Trump's education secretary. Zero experience with public schools, gung-ho for private schools, and zip-all in the understanding of special needs kids and even the necessity for kids to do social distancing in schools. Her advice? The kids are supposed to wash their hands, avoid their grandparents, and the teacher should "tidy up" at the end of the day (that last bit of 'advice' is from the premier).

Of course neither of them has answered when asked what kids should do if their grandparents ARE their caregivers...

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Average incomes have actually risen throughout the crisis as the $600/week boost to unemployment was more than most of the recipients were making to begin with. This, coupled with a federal moratorium on evictions from buildings with a federally-backed mortgage has been a saving grace for the situation.

Unfortunately, both of those programs have now ended and the GOP seems intent on dying on the hill of wage suppression and working class misery so it's unclear if they will be replaced. The Republicans are fixated on the notion that poor people are getting more than they deserve vis a vis the unemployment boost and are using the argument that it prevents people from going back to work to justify ending or massively scaling back the boost.

Of course, this is nonsense on the face of it as you lose all your unemployment in most cases if you refuse to go back to work. Additionally, all the research done thus far has shown that the overwhelming majority of Americans prefer work to unemployment and do go back to work, even when they make less by doing so, when called. The GOP don't seem to realize how much of their propaganda the American people have internalized - even if people had a choice to stay collecting unemployment or go back to a minimum wage job with a pandemic hazard looming over their head, they would still choose to go back. But again, I have to emphasize that this is not actually a choice the unemployed can make as this is simply not how American unemployment works. If you refuse work, you lose your benefits.

The real issue which the GOP talking heads only tangentially mention on occasion is that they are afraid that the unemployment boost may end up causing incomes to rise due to the friction and dissonance which arises when people realize they are risking their lives to stock shelves at $19,000 a year while others make far more being unemployed, all while the owner class (as embodied by Jeff Bezos) continue getting richer even as the economy collapses. Despite mountains of empty rhetoric that the GOP is the 'jobs and economy party', they don't actually want people earning good wages - or at least we can say that they want what their corporate sponsors want, which is eternal wage suppression. This should be obvious to anyone who has seen the billboards from Rick Scott's time as Florida governor where he boasted of the rock-bottom minimum wage and lack of worker protections in his state in an effort to lure businesses there: the message being that what is good for business is good, period, and the people who actually have to scrape by on pittance wages be damned and voiceless.

Unless the GOP caves - and soon - this next quarter is going to be an absolute bloodbath as the unemployed go back to making a pittance from unemployment, if they can get it in the first place. The other notable tell from the Republican leaders of states like Florida is how aggressively they have moved to dismantle unemployment insurance programs in the last decade by making them dysfunctional and miserly. The federal boost to unemployment insurance was an absolute mess to implement to due to this intentional dysfunction and the alternatives floated now by the GOP to base a lesser payment boost on a wonky formula will be completely unworkable in the coming weeks - which is the timescale that counts for people now struggling to put food on the table and pay rent.

Even with the unemployment boost and eviction moratorium, we've already seen breadlines of the kind not seen since the Great Depression though we've managed to stave off complete collapse. Unfortunately it appears we are in for that total collapse as the GOP is showing us all that in spite of their talk of rising tides lifting all boats, they really see the economy as a fixed-sum game wherein the growth of workers wages can only come at the expense of the owner class and therefore must be stopped at all costs.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

It's interesting how some businesses have switched from their original products to pandemic-related ones. There are breweries here that realized they have the ingredients (or can easily get them) to make hand sanitizer, so they switched to that. Some manufacturers switched to making shields and other PPE.

There was a small clothing manufacturing company that had just laid off their workers... and then along came the daily briefings from Alberta's chief medical officer, Dr. Deena Hinshaw.

Seems Dr. Hinshaw is a bit of a geek... she wore a dress with a pattern of the periodic table of elements, and was suddenly inundated with requests to know where she bought it. She referred them to this clothing manufacturer, and they ended up resuming business... with each worker doing their step of the process at home. So that's also a pandemic-related change, though of course they make other styles.

 

[thecrazyscot]

So close, and yet, so far.

It might be my current lack of sleep or the fact that we will still be in the hospital for another night, but I have little patience for these sorts of snide comments right now. There is no inconsistency between those two things I said.

There are more kinds of "collapse" than just financial. There's social, and isn't Trump trying to find some way to postpone or cancel the election this year?

You are absolutely correct, there are multiple types of collapse, and it would be really helpful if it was specified which type of collapse we were meant to discuss here. Collapse is also a very strong word, bringing to mind the Bronze Age collapse, the fall of Rome, and other catastrophic events like that.

I am speaking specifically about an economic or financial "collapse" seemed to be the intent of the OP (and I may have read too narrowly), as well as most of the initial responses.

I think we are more likely to have long term social upheaval (I still hesitate to term it a collapse) than a complete implosion of our economy. We may have a collapse of the American system of government in this century, but that would likely be a gradual decline into more extreme forms of what Trump is attempting to do now (the rise of Strongmen) rather than a nationwide bloody insurrection.

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

The economy have not collapsed, it have gone in dormancy but it will will away and stuff will be about the same as they was before. It is not comparable to something like the world wars in terms of damage which was far far worse and as I said before it was possible to recover from the world wars so it will be very much possible to recover from the pandemic and USA seems to in a better shape than many other countries in terms of maintaining its economy.

 

[Crezth]

It might be my current lack of sleep or the fact that we will still be in the hospital for another night, but I have little patience for these sorts of snide comments right now. There is no inconsistency between those two things I said.

If large parts of the country are going to be laid waste, after already being laid waste for 40 years, and unemployment rises to 25% as the entire market crashes because it's built on speculation that's only got worse since 2008, you're going to look quite the fool for acknowledging that "large parts of the country" would be destroyed but a "collapse" is somehow off the table.

 

[thecrazyscot]

If large parts of the country are going to be laid waste, after already being laid waste for 40 years, and unemployment rises to 25% as the entire market crashes because it's built on speculation that's only got worse since 2008, you're going to look quite the fool for acknowledging that "large parts of the country" would be destroyed but a "collapse" is somehow off the table.

Parts of the country != the whole.

I feel like I shouldn't have to say that.

 

[Birdjaguar]

... as the entire market crashes because it's built on speculation that's only got worse since 2008, ....

Any time table for this? 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?

 

[Kouvb593kdnuewnd]

Any time table for this? 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=US
US gdp per capita was higher 2012 than it was in 2008, so the recession + recovery lasted like 3 years and every year since then the gdp per capita have been growing.

 

[cardgame]

Parts of the country != the whole.

I feel like I shouldn't have to say that.

Yeah, but the economy is interconnected enough that a collapse in part also means a collapse in whole is not out of the question, you see?

 

[Crezth]

Parts of the country != the whole.

I feel like I shouldn't have to say that.

You're right, parts of the country are a part, just like struts are part of a structure.

Any time table for this? 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years? 10 years?

Good question. Short term I think the coronavirus crash is worse than anyone expects and the rebound is not coming. First of all because coronavirus is going to stick around for 6-12 months and secondly because I think the jobs that have already been shed won't be reabsorbed before the downturn gets worse. The stimulus was meant to correct this but I don't think it's targeted correctly and we've got a bubble. Medium-short term this means a long downturn.

This isn't about predicting an exact moment of total state failure or revolution, either. As you said collapses are best understood in the scale of decades or centuries. In this case I think the collapse started a little while ago and the crater has been slowly expanding since then. Coronavirus is simply the latest in a long line of shakes to the dysfunctional frankenstein we call an economy.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Good question. Short term I think the coronavirus crash is worse than anyone expects and the rebound is not coming. First of all because coronavirus is going to stick around for 6-12 months and secondly because I think the jobs that have already been shed won't be reabsorbed before the downturn gets worse. The stimulus was meant to correct this but I don't think it's targeted correctly and we've got a bubble. Medium-short term this means a long downturn.

This isn't about predicting an exact moment of total state failure or revolution, either. As you said collapses are best understood in the scale of decades or centuries. In this case I think the collapse started a little while ago and the crater has been slowly expanding since then. Coronavirus is simply the latest in a long line of shakes to the dysfunctional frankenstein we call an economy.

A market collapse that trashes the rich and the bankers such that there is no recovery for them is not the same as an economic collapse that makes everyone else poor and out of work.

In your post i quoted, you said market collapse. Above you seem to be talking about more than that. Can world markets collapse such that the damage is mostly done to the wealthy? Or must they take everyone else down too? In any widespread collapse, it is likely that the top 20% will not be affected substantially unless the stock markets also go fully to zero.

 

[Crezth]

A market collapse that trashes the rich and the bankers such that there is no recovery for them is not the same as an economic collapse that makes everyone else poor and out of work.

In your post i quoted, you said market collapse. Above you seem to be talking about more than that. Can world markets collapse such that the damage is mostly done to the wealthy? Or must they take everyone else down too? In any widespread collapse, it is likely that the top 20% will not be affected substantially unless the stock markets also go fully to zero.

I mean, it sort of depends on what you mean by "mostly." "Most" of the financial damage does indeed go to the rich, but debtors have creditors. There is no way for the financial system to collapse in a way that doesn't ripple out to the economy: the economy is dependent on the capital flow that the financial system's vast supply of credit provides. Without that credit - that is to say, if all those debts come due - businesses must liquidate in order to make ends meet, or else become bankrupt. This is what kills businesses that can't adapt and forces mass layoffs and downsizing. The markets mediate the shock throughout the entire financial marketplace.

Simply put I don't see how the damage won't force mass unemployment and deprivation. The natural consequence of a deflated economy is no jobs - no money going out to people who are working. Unemployment insurance isn't grabbing everyone, and if they go through with ending the moratorium on evictions and rescind the additional unemployment benefits, we're going to end up with an awful lot of unemployed people freshly pushed out onto the streets. Plenty of rich will see their fortunes wiped out, but plenty still will survive the collapse in one way or another if they don't outright profit from it.

 

[thecrazyscot]

Yeah, but the economy is interconnected enough that a collapse in part also means a collapse in whole is not out of the question, you see?

You're right, parts of the country are a part, just like struts are part of a structure.

Some parts of the country, as unfair and unfortunate as it is, are not as important to the overall health of the country as others. There are multiple areas, both urban and rural, that have suffered widespread poverty (Appalachia, Detroit, etc) and a lack of services which might be what you are referring to by "collapse", and they have had little impact on the economy of the country as a whole over many decades.

It is another unfortunate truth that current and future economic hardship will probably disproportionately hit those areas which historically already suffer those hardships.

Is a widespread country-wide collapse possible? Of course it is. Is it likely? No, I don't think so, and I think saying that widespread collapse is the most likely path we are on is in fact, hyperbole.

 

[Estebonrober]

Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but from the outside, the US already looks to be collapsing. Not yet falling, but like the surge of a glacier that's moving quicker and quicker every year.

I definitely see it this way from the inside. There is a lot of denial about what all this means long term for the world's largest banana republic

 

[Crezth]

Some parts of the country, as unfair and unfortunate as it is, are not as important to the overall health of the country as others. There are multiple areas, both urban and rural, that have suffered widespread poverty (Appalachia, Detroit, etc) and a lack of services which might be what you are referring to by "collapse", and they have had little impact on the economy of the country as a whole over many decades.

It is another unfortunate truth that current and future economic hardship will probably disproportionately hit those areas which historically already suffer those hardships.

Is a widespread country-wide collapse possible? Of course it is. Is it likely? No, I don't think so, and I think saying that widespread collapse is the most likely path we are on is in fact, hyperbole.

This is the mindset that's probably going to be the most responsible for the collapse to be honest. The willingness to brush off some of the most depressed regions ever to exist on the Earth as "tragically, no longer important" is exactly the kind of tunnel vision that's going to allow the house of cards called financialization to come crashing down on everyone's heads.

 

[innonimatu]

iirc gdp dropped by like 33%, grand depression #s. How come people are still getting lattes and pizzas and watching Netflix and not dying?

Even before this crisis, basically my whole life since I understood what global warming was I've had this uncomfortable feeling that everything is fake and fragile and held together by collective belief and sacrifice of the future.

But maybe I'm wrong like libertarians think and everything will keep improving and somehow we'll solve our problems in the nick of time like every action movie.

Probably because the unemployment payments and the delaying on payments of rents and mortgages allowed for other spending to go on. Effectively the consequences of huge unemployment have not yet kicked in. The GDP number is an unreliable construction to draw any conclusions from.

 

[innonimatu]

Even with the unemployment boost and eviction moratorium, we've already seen breadlines of the kind not seen since the Great Depression though we've managed to stave off complete collapse. Unfortunately it appears we are in for that total collapse as the GOP is showing us all that in spite of their talk of rising tides lifting all boats, they really see the economy as a fixed-sum game wherein the growth of workers wages can only come at the expense of the owner class and therefore must be stopped at all costs.

But they are right in seeing it as a fixed-sum game. It's not about GDP and wealth as an accounting reality in numbers, it's about social power. That is a zero-sum game: if workers start making demands instead of meekly submitting to the "discipline of the market", the extremely wealthy upper class lose some of their power over the rest of the population: to be served unquestioningly by them as an "economic necessity". They'd rather lose half their wealth (or more...) in a crisis where everyone loses, but keep their power of command over the rest of society.

I would say: look at the bright side, the GOP is going to be crushed in the elections after unleashing disaster. But the problem is that the beneficiary is another pupped of the extremely wealthy upper class running things there. He (or rather, his administration handlers) will be happy to let the then-ripe crisis go on, having someone else (the previous administration) to blame it on. And if necessary start some big war around mid 2021 to distract people from the ongoing disaster.
Unfortunately the timing is terrible. Election one year from now would be perfect to get good changes going, things as they are having been thoroughly discredited and having time for a proper debate, picking real alternatives to back, and finding trustworthy candidates candidates.
But elections 3 months from now will lock in disaster: a new administration that won't be new but more of the same, and will be able to keep beating on the working class for at least two years without any (scheduled) challenge to its power. And hopelessness among the public because the official opposition will only be demanding an even greater beating and new elections are far away.