How long do you think the DPRK is going to exist for?

[ParkCungHee]

Incoming famine and widespread starvation, probably.

What makes you say that?

 

[RedRalph]

Incoming famine and widespread starvation, probably.

What, like the one that didn't come vaguely close to toppling the government in the 1990s?

 

[Traitorfish]

I think as soon as China starts transforming into a democracy...

Why would this happen?

...parts of the DPRK army will overthrow the regime...

How does that follow?

...and organize instant reunification.

Why would they do that?

 

[ParkCungHee]

Why would they do that?

And how?

 

[luiz]

Apparently NK's New Year's declaration lacked the traditional criticism of the US and foreign imperialism. This might be the signal for less confrontation. Maybe like Raúl Castro in Cuba the powers that be in NK realize their only chance of holding to power on the long term is going the Chinese way, that is, controlled capitalism without democracy.

OTOH, the statement did contain that bizarre, death-worshipping crap about the privilege that would be dying for Kim Jong-Un. Which indicates business as usual.

 

[Gigaz]

Why would this happen?

Why would anyone want to overthrow a despotic government? The Chinese people are very much aware of the events in Arabia and Russia.

How does that follow?

If China changes, it can only be bad for North Korea.

Why would they do that?

They would seek quick reunification because it's the best way to get economic progress and protection from China.

 

[Winner]

and what makes you say that?

Wishful thinking. I am daring the Universe.

 

[Traitorfish]

Why would anyone want to overthrow a despotic government? The Chinese people are very much aware of the events in Arabia and Russia.

"Why" as in "what concrete social forces would lead to that outcome?" not as in "why would that be desirable for those involved?", if you follow me.

Also, however objectionable the Chinese regime is, it's not "despotic". That's just rhetoric.

If China changes, it can only be bad for North Korea.

That doesn't explain anything.

They would seek quick reunification because it's the best way to get economic progress and protection from China.

It's also the best way to lose power. And, as Park says, how would they go about it, given the previously discussed obstacles?

 

[ParkCungHee]

Seriously, what are they going to do? Just add 11 provinces to the Republic?
The ROK has set terms and membership for the assembly, so that's at least not going to be an issue for four years.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

That's the complication, isn't it? The nukes mean that the DPRK can't be left as it is indefinitely, but they also mean that no immediate solution presents itself. Catch twenty-two and all that.

I would argue that the solution is evident. Call NK's bluff and watch them lose their only leverage. Nukes are only a leverage if they are a threat. Once they actually dare to use them, they are no longer leverage. I would venture to guess they would never use them.

Perhaps you could spell out this 'simple matter' of accounting in more detail. Exactly how do you see the North Korean state collapsing? Do you think that resource shortages (and ensuing starvation) will lead to mass public mobilization in support of reform? Do you think resource shortages will lead to elite-lead democratization? Neither option seems particularly credible.

Any regime that steals the wealth of its people and distributes it to a select few at the expense of the people will eventually find that there is less coming in over time. Without reinvesting in infrastructure and other vital public services, there will simply be less productivity over time and the elite, who are the beneficiaries of the nation's toil, will see their incomes dwindle. This eventually reaches a critical mass where the state (which is the elite, and not the people) simply cannot function. The power base then seek someone or something new so that their privileges can continue, having lost confidence in the previous regime. The only way around this dilemma is to have an alternative source of revenue. A lot of authoritarian regimes have managed this by having some natural resource available that doesn't require taxing its people to death. It's called the "resource curse." They can maintain their power for as long as the resource is available. NK has done it with foreign aid, leveraged against their nuclear arms. NK reached critical mass years ago, when it started having starvations. Notice that, despite starvation, they still managed to have enough money to buy a nuclear weapons development program. That should tell you where all the money really goes. The military, as in so many authoritarian regimes, is part of the elite that benefit, as well as the enforcement of the regime that keeps the people down.

No one who can get it to happen is clamoring for democracy there. The people do not have the will to do it, as they are so oppressed that they cannot even eat properly. That, as you can imagine, is partly by design. NK doesn't give a damn that people starve as long as the organs of state survive and prosper. So what foreign aid comes in doesn't get to those starving many. The elite are not interested in democracy either. They have proven recently, in approving of the new boss, that they want to keep things the same. But once they lose faith that the regime can be maintained, they will seek regime change from within, and this is usually some new leader who will promise them better. It would take a bold leader, a Gorbachev, that proposes free market and democracy reforms, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Traitorfish]

I would argue that the solution is evident. Call NK's bluff and watch them lose their only leverage. Nukes are only a leverage if they are a threat. Once they actually dare to use them, they are no longer leverage. I would venture to guess they would never use them.

But you're back to the problem of a collapsing DPRK regime with nothing to replace it. So that's not really a solution at all, from the perspective of the RoK and USA.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

But you're back to the problem of a collapsing DPRK regime with nothing to replace it. So that's not really a solution at all, from the perspective of the RoK and USA.

The regime is not at all interested in collapsing. The nature of all states is the will to survive at any cost. If their bluff is called, they will simply try something different. They will never risk war because they are quite certain they will lose. Proof of this is in the fact that they have never risked open war since the end of the Korean War. They are content to have small skirmishes. If they knew they could win, and were so eager and hateful of their enemies, they wouldn't bother threatening. They would just attack. They will keep trying different tactics to keep the money rolling in. They may try selling arms, or trafficking drugs, or other nefarious deeds. Whatever the means, all that matters to the elite is that they and their privileges survive.

But a setback like this would increase the pressure, and eventually, someone will realize the current arrangement isn't working and there will be infighting within the elite to make things better (for themselves). For example, there may be a purge, leaving fewer guys at the top and more for the rest. This whole process will just keep continuing until it becomes entirely unmanageable and either international forces intervene or civil war erupts.

 

[Takhisis]

Are you sure they 'know' they'll lose? After so many years of brainwashing and self-delusion no one knows for certain what goes on inside their heads.

 

[Tee Kay]

parts of the DPRK army will overthrow the regime.

This probably already happened, we just don't know about it. Real power in the DPRK rests with the small cadre of top-ranking generals, with Kim III as a figurehead.

China. Democracy. Does. Not. Compute.

 

[Traitorfish]

Are you sure they 'know' they'll lose? After so many years of brainwashing and self-delusion no one knows for certain what goes on inside their heads.

Come now, let's keep the Yanks out of this.

 

[Takhisis]

You mean the rebellious province of Taiwan?

Come now, let's keep the Yanks out of this.

Today is 04-01, not 01-04. Use proper British calendar settings.

 

[Quackers]

hear, hear!

 

[Tee Kay]

You mean the rebellious province of Taiwan?

I see you've been converted to the point of view of the rebellious provinces of Hopei, Shantung, Liaotung, Honan, Szechuan, Kwangtung, Chekiang, etc,

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

Are you sure they 'know' they'll lose? After so many years of brainwashing and self-delusion no one knows for certain what goes on inside their heads.

It is only the people who are brainwashed. Those at the top are, after all, the ones spewing the propaganda, so they know what is true and what isn't. Part of their propaganda is already working on you, in that they have convinced you that they're "so crazy" as to be unpredictable. That's exactly the kind of bluffing that so many in the West are falling for.

 

[Takhisis]

hear, hear!

Use proper capitalisation as befitting a subject of Her Majesty's Glorious Empire!

I see you've been converted to the point of view of the rebellious provinces of Hopei, Shantung, Liaotung, Honan, Szechuan, Kwangtung, Chekiang, etc,

You traitorous revisionist capitalist!

It is only the people who are brainwashed. Those at the top are, after all, the ones spewing the propaganda, so they know what is true and what isn't. Part of their propaganda is already working on you, in that they have convinced you that they're "so crazy" as to be unpredictable. That's exactly the kind of bluffing that so many in the West are falling for.

Traitorfish is right, are we tralking about Korea or the US? Anyway, about the PDRK: They've been enduring brainwashing since the 50's. So, now, what are they gonna do? They have practically no one who can remember a country before the Kimdom, unless their future officers are kept out of the propaganda stream I'm not sure how they can be much more sensible than the rest of them.