How long do you think the DPRK is going to exist for?

[BasketCase]

North Korea can't possibly collapse soon enough, but there's no way to know when it will actually happen--that nation is closed up so tight it's almost impossible to obtain intel with anything better than satellite imaging, so there's no way to know if, por ejemplo, the citizens are on the edge of all-out civil war.

 

[Takhisis]

Which they very likely aren't.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

Traitorfish is right, are we tralking about Korea or the US? Anyway, about the PDRK: They've been enduring brainwashing since the 50's. So, now, what are they gonna do? They have practically no one who can remember a country before the Kimdom, unless their future officers are kept out of the propaganda stream I'm not sure how they can be much more sensible than the rest of them.

You haven't been paying attention. It is only the people, not those in power, who are subject to propaganda. They are the ones extolling their own virtues, so they would know what those virtues were and weren't. The leadership knows perfectly well what it's doing, or they would not have lasted this long. Even if there was one crazy mofo who decided to do something entirely unpredictable, the elite would quickly try to look for a replacement, knowing their privileges were in jeopardy.

So it seems you are as fooled as others by this "crazy like a fox" bluff.

 

[Tani Coyote]

North Korea will eventually liberalise slowly, as all the other Communist nations have done. In North Korea's case, it's just necessary - they are crumbling due to their closed doors. There's no Matthew Perry to force open their borders either; they must do it themselves.

While the Arabs have shown decades-old regimes can be overthrown(or at least replaced by moderately more agreeable ones), it would seem North Korea doesn't have anywhere near as much information or wealth going for it.

Of course, the entire country is dependent on foreign aid. As soon as that dries up, they'll likely have a lot of riots on their hands, if not civil war.

Those that do not adapt are killing themselves. It's not just a law of biology, it's a law of geopolitics.

 

[Takhisis]

You haven't been paying attention. It is only the people, not those in power, who are subject to propaganda. They are the ones extolling their own virtues, so they would know what those virtues were and weren't. The leadership knows perfectly well what it's doing, or they would not have lasted this long. Even if there was one crazy mofo who decided to do something entirely unpredictable, the elite would quickly try to look for a replacement, knowing their privileges were in jeopardy.

So it seems you are as fooled as others by this "crazy like a fox" bluff.

No, no, no. I might have miswritten my last post. I meant that, unless the officers and leaders of the country are selected from a special class not subjected to propaganda since childhood, then how can we be really sure they've not swallowed their own propaganda by now?

I don't believe they're actually stupid enough or crazy enough to start nuking stuff. Shelling an island or a ship and killing a couple dozen people is fine, it'll bring them no terrible reprisals, but they know that if they actually do use a nuclear bomb they'll never get any foreign aid ever again and might actually start a war which they can't win. They just have to hint that they have nuclear weapons and hope no one calls their bluff.

 

[Traitorfish]

Why is the debate about exactly how many North Koreans have been hopelessly brainwashed by state propaganda, rather than about to the extent that state propaganda is actually an effective tool for brainwashing people? The fact that thousands of North Koreans flee the country ever year suggests that it's a bit more complex than that.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

No, no, no. I might have miswritten my last post. I meant that, unless the officers and leaders of the country are selected from a special class not subjected to propaganda since childhood, then how can we be really sure they've not swallowed their own propaganda by now?

They don't get to make the decisions. They are just handed decisions from above. I'm sure NK is counting on them to be brainwashed. All the better that they follow orders without question. The real leadership, centered around Kim Jong Un and a small entourage, are the ones calling the shots. Believe me, they know the scam they're running.

 

[Traitorfish]

They don't get to make the decisions. They are just handed decisions from above. I'm sure NK is counting on them to be brainwashed. All the better that they follow orders without question. The real leadership, centered around Kim Jong Un and a small entourage, are the ones calling the shots. Believe me, they know the scam they're running.

What basis do you have for believing all this, exactly? It feels like you're working on the basis of what you would do if you were part of a military dictatorship, rather than, as Takhisis is doing, what the actual dictators are likely to be doing given the environment in which they have developed.

 

[ParkCungHee]

I do love that "brainwashing" is still being thrown around with the DPRK.

 

[Takhisis]

You've probably been brainwashed into thinking there's no brainwashing.

 

[ParkCungHee]

Probably. If an impoverished Northern Asian nation has access to mind control technology, I'm sure a modern nation has it as well.

 

[Takhisis]

Not a nation, merely X-COM…

 

[BasketCase]

You haven't been paying attention. It is only the people, not those in power, who are subject to propaganda.

On the contrary. George Orwell nailed this one square on the head. With a 20-lb sledge.

North Korea is not going to be conquered from without (the rest of the world is too tired of war, and too scared of more wars, to try); the only threats to the Kim Il regime are from within. The greatest threat to the Inner Party is the Inner Party itself, and so the ruling class must police itself. That's why you don't see any dissenting factions within the North Korean military; North Korean propaganda is mostly for the rulers, to keep the rulers in line.

 

[Traitorfish]

On the contrary. George Orwell nailed this one square on the head. With a 20-lb sledge.

Actually, Orwell's model of "totalitarian" society was more like Nanocyberorganisms. That's actually one of its major flaws, its fails to take into account the role of the institutionalisation of demanding that people, at the top and bottom, act as if 2 + 2 was 5, while simultaneously allowing them to holding private reservations about the claim. The tension between official truths and open secrets in these societies is often quite tangible.

 

[Tahuti]

Nanocyborgasm and BasketCase visions aren't necessarily mutually exclusive: Nanocyborgasm is right in that propaganda is mostly directed at the people, but BasketCase is right in that the pervasive indoctrination of the North Korean people is also what keeps the North Korean military from dethroning Kim Jung-Un.

 

[amadeus]

A little speculation on propaganda: what if the purpose of North Korean propaganda isn't to convince individuals that the regime is good and the country is prosperous, but to convince those individuals that everyone else around them believes the propaganda?

 

[Traitorfish]

Nanocyborgasm and BasketCase visions aren't necessarily mutually exclusive: Nanocyborgasm is right in that propaganda is mostly directed at the people, but BasketCase is right in that the pervasive indoctrination of the North Korean people is also what keeps the North Korean military from dethroning Kim Jung-Un.

That's making a number of assumptions about the internal politics of North Korea that are, quite frankly, impossible to substantiate, simply because we don't and at this point can't know enough to say.

A little speculation on propaganda: what if the purpose of North Korean propaganda isn't to convince individuals that the regime is good and the country is prosperous, but to convince those individuals that everyone else around them believes the propaganda?

An interesting line of thought.

 

[bombshoo]

A little speculation on propaganda: what if the purpose of North Korean propaganda isn't to convince individuals that the regime is good and the country is prosperous, but to convince those individuals that everyone else around them believes the propaganda?

I think you are really onto something there as this works not only on the national level, but the international level as well. Internationally, if outsiders think all North Koreans are diehard supporters of the regime, it makes any sort of attack on the country seem more risky. Domestically, if North Koreans believe all other North Koreans are diehard supporters of the regime, they are reluctant to express dissatisfaction. Good thought.

Nanocyborgasm and BasketCase visions aren't necessarily mutually exclusive: Nanocyborgasm is right in that propaganda is mostly directed at the people, but BasketCase is right in that the pervasive indoctrination of the North Korean people is also what keeps the North Korean military from dethroning Kim Jung-Un.

I'm not sure if I've seen it mentioned, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kim Jong Il had purposefully reduced himself to figurehead status as health waned, or even earlier when he decided he would rather ride jet skies and make movies than directly rule the country.

 

[BasketCase]

Actually, Orwell's model of "totalitarian" society was more like Nanocyberorganisms. That's actually one of its major flaws, its fails to take into account the role of the institutionalisation of demanding that people, at the top and bottom, act as if 2 + 2 was 5, while simultaneously allowing them to holding private reservations about the claim.

That's not what Orwell's model was. A member of the Inner Party, in order to be secure in his control, must genuinely believe that 2 + 2 = 5. He cannot "act" as if Party doctrine is true while privately believing the opposite--that is precisely what lands a person in a cozy room at the Ministry of Truth.

Much of Orwell's dystopian toturial on "How To Run a Dictatorship" is based on the premise that most dictatorships collapse when the leaders screw something up. In order to stay in power, Orwell says, the dictator must properly discipline himself. He must be able to genuinely believe his own bullcrap.

A little speculation on propaganda: what if the purpose of North Korean propaganda isn't to convince individuals that the regime is good and the country is prosperous, but to convince those individuals that everyone else around them believes the propaganda?

Take it a step further: what if North Korean propaganda is aimed at the citizens of ALL THE OTHER NATIONS of the Earth.....? If you and I are convinced they're completely whacko and prepared to cause a nuclear holocaust if we invade them, we're probably not going to invade them, are we?

The North Korean propaganda machine just might, in reality, be aimed at you.

 

[Neonanocyborgasm]

What basis do you have for believing all this, exactly? It feels like you're working on the basis of what you would do if you were part of a military dictatorship, rather than, as Takhisis is doing, what the actual dictators are likely to be doing given the environment in which they have developed.

That's how all these centralized authorities operate. It's the same scam whether you're running a country, a corporation, or a crime syndicate. The boss has a small entourage of enforcers, who enforce his will in exchange for great wealth and privilege, of which the boss has the most. The propaganda is part of that enforcement. No one can be everywhere at once, so propaganda serves as the internal check to the rubes to do what they're told "or else." The notion that the leadership is subject to the same propaganda is rather ludicrous, because they are the ones calling the shots. How can they run things if they didn't know what was going on? That would amount to anarchy.

On the contrary. George Orwell nailed this one square on the head. With a 20-lb sledge.

As much as I respect George Orwell, you are quoting a fictional novel.

North Korea is not going to be conquered from without (the rest of the world is too tired of war, and too scared of more wars, to try); the only threats to the Kim Il regime are from within. The greatest threat to the Inner Party is the Inner Party itself, and so the ruling class must police itself. That's why you don't see any dissenting factions within the North Korean military; North Korean propaganda is mostly for the rulers, to keep the rulers in line.

That is why you must always shave with Ockham's Razor, or else you will get overly complicated conclusions like this. If everyone in the state is taking orders, then no one is making orders, and therefore, there is anarchy. And anarchy certainly doesn't produce totalitarianism.