How to Expect War Declarations

[TheJ711]

Hey everyone! New to this forum, not to the series.
I don't know if this falls under a 'newbie question' or not, but I'm going to ask anyway...
Was playing a game on Prince difficulty as Huayna (I like doing one turn with each leader at each level)
and had a rough start and only took out one civ on the continent. Borders shared with Julius and Cyrus the entire game basically, but because I conquered Saladin, the entire continent has only Buddhism in every city. (and we've all been Buddhist since basically the beginning)
Anyway, with that in mind, Julius is well below me in points and tech the entire game, and is between please and friendly the entire game.
Fast forward-I just finished Industrialism, am about to finish the Apollo Program, I've got several military units in every city, especially along the border with Julius, and he (while pleased) declares war on me and pours in about 70 units.

My question basically is, what do I have to do to guarantee that an ai won't attack me? I thought I had every possible thing going for me and at the worst possible time he declares war. I technically can load the most recent auto save and just agree to a defensive pact Cyrus offered and Julius presumably won't declare war then, but is there a set formula to know or understand what's safe and when ai's will/won't declare war?

 

[TheJ711]

Update: he declares war on both Cyrus and I even with the Defensive Pact; he and Cyrus were Friendly before the war declaration...

 

[AcaMetis]

My question basically is, what do I have to do to guarantee that an ai won't attack me?

Look up Civ Illustrated #1 (Know Your Enemy), it'll list which AIs can start plotting war at Pleased (hint: Julius is one of them) and which ones can only start plotting war at Cautious or below. Although be mindful that AIs that can't start plotting war can still declare war given the right (or wrong) circumstances. For example if Julius starts plotting on you while he's pleased it won't help to bring him up to friendly - he'll declare on you when he's ready regardless - and in some cases, like defensive pacts, AIs are forced to declare war no matter what.

 

[TheJ711]

Thanks! Does it make a difference that I'm playing the original Civ 4- and is there a way to see if anyone is plotting on me in the original like there is in BTS?

 

[AcaMetis]

Not sure if any leader is different in vanilla in that regard. As for seeing if they're plotting if the "We Have Enough On Our Hands Right Now" line doesn't work in vanilla than I've no idea if there's any way to tell when an AI is plotting, other than maybe keeping an eye on your neighbour's border. If they're gathering a ton of units in a border city while leaving others relatively empty they're likely preparing for a war.

 

[s.bernbaum]

The size of your military matters. The AIs consider that as a factor when deciding who to plot war against. The more military they have than you, the more likely they are to plot war against you. It is the size, not the technology, of the military that they look at. Although it is not 100%, I have found for the most part that if you have a larger military, giving a ratio of at least 1.6 to 1 in your favor, the AI in question will not attack you. The other thing to do, which it sounds like you are doing, is to use diplomacy to have good relations.

 

[earthy]

IIRC the info screen graphs are always available since there's no espionage slider in vanilla. I used to check the power graphs every few turns to see if anyone was spiking in preparation for war, which could sometimes tip you off. I can't remember if the "we have enough on our hands right now" was a thing or not though.

 

[6K Man]

My question basically is, what do I have to do to guarantee that an ai won't attack me? I thought I had every possible thing going for me and at the worst possible time he declares war. I technically can load the most recent auto save and just agree to a defensive pact Cyrus offered and Julius presumably won't declare war then, but is there a set formula to know or understand what's safe and when ai's will/won't declare war?

I'd say he declared on you at the best time. Good programming of the AI. If Julius doesn't attack now, you finish Apollo ahead of everyone and cruise to a Space victory. Now you can't build SS parts if you're forced to fight a war against a 70-unit stack.

If he's Pleased, you can beg a small amount of money from him, which will buy you a 10 turn peace treaty. IIRC the plotting stops then and you can then butter him up to Friendly, which precludes war plotting by anyone not named Cathy.

 

[Seraiel]

BUFFY shows a Red Fist Icon once an AI goes WHEOOHRN, from then on you have at least 20 Turns of Peace, so explore the AIs territory and follow the SoD so you can respond for double GG-Points.

 

[Pangaea]

BUFFY shows a Red Fist Icon once an AI goes WHEOOHRN, from then on you have at least 20 Turns of Peace

Huh? Is this correct? Would be news to me. Thought they could declare earlier than that, and am fairly convinced that must have happened in some games. Or do you include a beg peace-treaty in there?

Civ Illustrated has already been mentioned (also see my sig), which is an excellent source for an overview of each AI's personality. Hard to be 100% secure from DOWs, especially with Cathy, but good diplomacy is the key.

 

[earthy]

Huh? Is this correct? Would be news to me. Thought they could declare earlier than that, and am fairly convinced that must have happened in some games. Or do you include a beg peace-treaty in there?

Civ Illustrated has already been mentioned (also see my sig), which is an excellent source for an overview of each AI's personality. Hard to be 100% secure from DOWs, especially with Cathy, but good diplomacy is the key.

Can't be correct. I've seen AI's declare after only plotting for a turn or two.

 

[Seraiel]

Then those AIs were bribed, I' m sure I' ve read that normal DoW takes 10-20T .

 

[AcaMetis]

AIs can't be bribed when they're in WHEOOHRN mode, at least they refuse to be bribed by the player so I assume they won't be bribed by other AIs as well.

 

[ArchGhost]

Then those AIs were bribed, I' m sure I' ve read that normal DoW takes 10-20T .

It can take anywhere from 1-2 turns or as many as around 70 for normal DoW from personal experience.

In one of the threads where it got broken down there is a prep phase that has some sort of minimum that acts as a sort of time limit--if the AI doesn't cross border by that time it may cancel war prep. The factor that seems to extend DoW time is driven by the same deal (AI must cross your border to declare for regular DoW) so for instance if an AI can't get to you -- closed borders inbetween, peaks blocking access on same landmass, long naval route (or even requiring Astro) and the AI will be delayed, possibly indefinitely. It was never clear to me was actually causes them to drop preparations vs. continuing on for what seems like forever.

Daggers, DoW over refused demands, all types of bribe in (including defensive pact, etc) are all different from what I understand, the latter two have no border rule.

 

[Seraiel]

No, I' m really sure about at least 11T of garantueed Peace so if you beg after 10T you get 20T of Peace.

It' s normally a case where Players don' t have BUFFY installed and miss the WHEOOHRN Icon.

 

[Fippy]

It's random..as Archghost wrote anywhere between 1t and seemingly endless.
Mostly depends on where their SOD is located, sometimes AI pathfinding will hugely delay attacks while they wait for oooone unit to join (see Sulla's Survivor series).

 

[Seraiel]

No, it' s not. 10T of peace are garantueed and with Begging it' s 20.

 

[Spielban]

No, it' s not. 10T of peace are garantueed and with Begging it' s 20.

I just witnessed, in my current game, Boudica started plotting at AD740, and then DoW on Washington at AD760.

 

[krikav]

It's random.
If you beg though, then you are guaranteed 10 turns of peace.
So if Shaka starts to plot, you can gift him a city or whatever to get him up to pleased, then you can beg him for his clams and be safe for 10 turns.
On turn 11, ten dozen impis can storm your empire.

 

[Seraiel]

I just witnessed, in my current game, Boudica started plotting at AD740, and then DoW on Washington at AD760.

Do you use the BUG Mod or BUFFY Mod? If not, you have to check the diplomacy tab every turn to notice T0 when AI starts plotting. BUG/BUFFY does that work and I' m still sure about a minimum of 10T peace and 20T when being a skillful diplomat.