Indian Pakistan Clashes

[Silurian]

Hopefully this will not escalate.

 

[Hehehe]

It's difficult to tell with all the different versions going around, but it seems like India did a pretend revenge air strike and called it a day. Then this military jet debacle happened. I doubt this will escalate into a nuclear war, given how much both sides have to lose. I'm guessing that India will do a cosmetic retaliation strike and let it go

 

[luiz]

Ironically it's exactly that fact that both are nuclear powers that prevents much escalation. If the same thing happened in the 60's, at least a minor conflict was to be expected.

 

[innonimatu]

What this shows is how dangerous the situation within Pakistan is. The recently elected prime-minister wants better relations with India. This must have been done by the military to sabotage his efforts.

 

[Lexicus]

What this shows is how dangerous the situation within Pakistan is. The recently elected president wants better relations with India. This must have been done by the military to sabotage his efforts.

Any evidence of this or just a hunch? Are you suggesting the situation in Pakistan is dangerous because the military is [may be] defying the president so brazenly?

I was under the impression that Pakistan is already more or less under military rule with the civilian side of things being basically a formality, am I wrong about that?

 

[Estebonrober]

Any evidence of this or just a hunch? Are you suggesting the situation in Pakistan is dangerous because the military is [may be] defying the president so brazenly?

I was under the impression that Pakistan is already more or less under military rule with the civilian side of things being basically a formality, am I wrong about that?

Also does Pakistani intelligence actually have full control over its little terror cells it uses form time to time? I get that India thinks so in this case, but frankly it seems that when you develop these types of assets they tend to burn your hands pretty often.

 

[peter grimes]

The existence of the nuclear shield is one of the reasons I'm ambivalent about proliferation - it really serves well to defuse escalation. However, the comorbid risks of proliferation are real, and wicked scary. Non-proliferation is complicated.

I think the ISI got freaked out by the Mumbai attack. I haven't followed that stuff nearly as closely as I used to, tho, so I could be very wrong.

 

[Arwon]

It's so weird that Imran Khan is Prime Minister of Pakistan now

 

[Berzerker]

the Iranians are mad at Pakistan too for an attack on their military

 

[innonimatu]

Any evidence of this or just a hunch? Are you suggesting the situation in Pakistan is dangerous because the military is [may be] defying the president so brazenly?

I was under the impression that Pakistan is already more or less under military rule with the civilian side of things being basically a formality, am I wrong about that?

A hunch, based on his campaign and past declarations. Present declarations by now also. It's not an area I follow with much attention (and I meant prime-minister, not president).

The military have a lot of influence and carried out a number of coups, but they are not openly running a military dictatorship now.

 

[Ajidica]

Ironically it's exactly that fact that both are nuclear powers that prevents much escalation. If the same thing happened in the 60's, at least a minor conflict was to be expected.

So what you are saying is that when two hostile sides have nuclear weapons, the chance of escalation decreases?

 

[Arwon]

Any evidence of this or just a hunch? Are you suggesting the situation in Pakistan is dangerous because the military is [may be] defying the president so brazenly?

I was under the impression that Pakistan is already more or less under military rule with the civilian side of things being basically a formality, am I wrong about that?

It frequently is, but not right now. Elections over the last decade have been by all accounts genuine though a bit flawed, but the army did want him to win for for ideological affinity reasons (pan-Pakistan identity, moderate*ish* political Islam) and the military remains a large political and economic player in Pakistan, capable of running campaigns against political figures they don't like, and I think it's also a fairly popular and persuasive institution. By some definitions they are the largest business entity in the country, similar to say Indonesia. The military / intelligence / security state also pretty opaque and likely factionalised and riven with disunity, so it's pretty likely there's elements working against Khan's government.

On the other side of things, while India is a thriving democracy and has a thoroughly ring-fenced military that isn't any sort of coup danger, Kashmir isn't a normal part of the country and the Army has a lot of power there. This is a place where security forces carried out mass blinding on protesters and there have long been specific "special powers" laws giving the army nearly blanket immunity to investigation and permitting deadly force to be used pretty easily on even small gatherings. I am not certain, but I tend to assume that this autonomy and impunity doesn't mean the army in India is out of control of the civilian government when it comes to the Line of Control and relations with Pakistan. But maybe it does leave some scope for escalatory actions to happen without close oversight from Delhi? I'm not really sure.

 

[luiz]

So what you are saying is that when two hostile sides have nuclear weapons, the chance of escalation decreases?

I mean I don't think this is an iron law of international relations or anything, nor that we should start handing out nukes to everyone (also one must consider that many states cannot be trusted to not sell nukes to private parties such as terrorists or separatists). But it seems to be the case between India and Pakistan, yes.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

I wonder why countries like India, having much more modern fighters, continue using its Mig-21s for everything. It is a testament to the usability of the old Mig, even if they are typically shot down.

 

[Silurian]

Pakistan is to release the captured Indian pilot tomorrow as a peace gesture.

 

[red_elk]

I wonder why countries like India, having much more modern fighters, continue using its Mig-21s for everything. It is a testament to the usability of the old Mig, even if they are typically shot down.

India claims there were 4 Su-30, 2 Mirage-2000 and 2 MiG-21 on their side, vs 8 F-16, 4 Mirage-3 and 4 JF-17 on Pakistani.
India lost one MiG-21 and one Pakistani F-16 was shot down.
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/24-...-over-stopped-by-8-air-force-fighters-2000703

Su-30 is fairly modern, though it's strange that their wing commander was flying MiG-21

 

[Thorgalaeg]

No evidence yet of the downed F16, AFAIK.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Su-30 is fairly modern, though it's strange that their wing commander was flying MiG-21

Russian engineering strong
The Pakistanis are still operating the even older Mig 17s and 19s

One thing I will say Ivan knows how to build them to last

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Or rather rebuild them. They sell refit packages that significantly upgrade the vehicle's avionics. Apparently (this was my TIL for today), the Israelis sell even better MIG-21 upgrade kits than the Russians according to Reddit.

Pillot skills, rules of engagement and ground support differences may have also played a large role in this air battle. If the number of jets involved are even half accurate then this was too large an engagement to count as a skirmish.

Worrying stuff really because while each side losing a jet can be shrugged off, each side losing 8 to 16 would be a massive propaganda and tactical victory - large enough to impact the strategic calculus of the respective leaders of India and Pakistan. In the grand scheme of things this isn't a large number of jets but for a peacetime clash it's crazy high.

 

[r16]

welcome to the wonderful world of Indo-Pakistani aerial fighting debate , which is indeed a niche part of the web , carried over from print in full glory . They will be debating this day 20 years on , with the same vigour . There is not much surprise in the MiG-21 if this was pre-planned as a clash between jets . Presumably one of those modernized ones , to fly low and ambush trusting on lower RCS and controllability close to ground as back in the 1970s them Russians had a specific nuclear bomber when they were already fielding the MiG-27 . It might have been modified early on , but the Indian claim was about the crash taking over the Himalayas , which is an odd thing to say , even if the area is Himalayas . Not only prevents the discovery of the wreckage , which might take 6 months if it indeed took place , but kinda off . ı fervently hope this last is "tangentially" involved with the helicopter crash that killed Nepal's Tourism Minister and others , even if the "action" took maybe a full 1000 miles away .

as for who did it , the Indians are agressive , the Chinese are aggressive and it might as well be a claim against them Yellow Hordes on a second front as well , but it's him the idiot who will become the next Saudi King . You can always keep the Pakistanis down , in case of extreme need , with citing the Indian threat , so it's only promise of participation and the like to get Pakistan involved in a war against Iran . So , there you people go . But Americans are more aggressive , despite the delightful attack on smarties that have guided this country to hell in the last decades and also singularly failed to make New Turkey anything but a joke . Delivered by some guy who seems relieved that the ruling Party might get troubled in the Local Elections , so visibly talking . Of which ı wouldn't accuse him at all .

and of course anyone needs to tell ı told you so , and like there you people again go .

one of those mighty blogs where "civvies" teach the less fortunate , about how the mighty US dominates the world and stuff . Even if such a status also forces him and his ilk to speculate the vaunted North American Airspace is violated at will and it's always an undeclared USAF test plane . Plus , making Esad fall would make it far harder to create a case for gods of war aka the Kurds who are bestest and finestest warriors on earth and the only option to fight ISIL and for that to happen there also had to be ISIL , now that Nusra -before and after- uses any pretext to avoid a good old bad response from people you wouldn't rightly know . Indeed F-22s are expected with much exciment , to see how it can go to Moon , too .