Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).

[Thorgalaeg]

100 times... LoL. Let guess where that number was pulled out from...

Now lets see... how many Su-35s are flying over Ukraine? After 3 years and 300+ losses Russia air force hasnt be able to disable Ukraine air defense and/or achieve any kind of air superiority and probably will never do. In fact Russian aircraft can't even get close to Ukrainian border or fly over the Black Sea without being downed. Otoh Israel aircraft only needed 48 hours to disable Iranian SAMs without losing a single aircraft (manned at least) and get complete control over Iranian air space, something Russia only can dream of against an opponent relatively much smaller. Let's not forget either that, unlike Ukraine, Iran is pretty far away from Israel, like two countries away, which complicates operations greatly. The Iranian air defenses are (or were) supposed to be quantitatively way bigger and more powerful than Ukrainian ones, with many more batteries and system, be it Russian, Chinese or Russian or Chinese inspired homebrew systems. In fact many (clueless) analysts considered it one of the strongest of the world. (See next video from two months ago for the laughs)

So the possibilities are three: Russian air force is very inferior to Israel's (that is a given I would say), Iranian air defenses are very inferior to Ukrainia's, or a combination of both. I will go with the third option.

 

[r16]

israel's airforce operates from the airspace of a NATO country ?

100 times is a phrase ı don't understand . Like are you suggesting a round hundred of New Turkey's finest were downed in combat or what ? Really fast answer , too !

 

[innonimatu]

About twice as many as the number of older S-300 supplied to Iran.

The crass ignorance of "western" populations in general about history and international politics may be the thing that keeps this from escalating, if all relevant governments agree on that. They have to posture as non-compromising winners to their own populations but that is easy in the "west", as you can see.

Counter that, but safely as I know it will have no effect whatsoever (@r16 doesn't need to be obscure, things can be written plainly and still fly over the heads of those reading), I'm pointing out here that the USSR actually supplied Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war (SCUDS, who manufactured those?) and never moved close to Iran due to past ideological differences and continued mutual distrust until just a few years ago. Iran has been building an AD network mostly of its own systems, and they are effective enough that I still doubt the narrative about any "bunker busters" having been used. But the narratives that get told depend on diplomatic agreements, if those are in place. For everyone's sake I home some kind of agreement is in place and this becomes no more than fodder for *-measuring contests among the plebs.

 

[Samson]

Iranian parliament approves closing Hormuz Strait

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament reportedly approved the measure.

The decision to close the strait, through which around 20 percent of global oil and gas demand flows, is not yet final. But lawmaker and Revolutionary Guards Commander Esmail Kosari told the Young Journalist Club on Sunday that doing so is on the agenda and “will be done whenever necessary.”

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

in light of the US involvement now, I wanted to go back to this:

It should be noted that Khamenei issued a fatwa against Iran building a bomb which has not been changed, so it is not even correct to say that Iran wants a nuke!

well then, all the more reason for Iran to give up its program in violation of its supreme leader's intentions!

in WW2 the Japanese emperor ordered his government to surrender, too, despite their willingness to fight on after a-bombs and incendiaries were dropped on them. That could be the exact precedent we're looking for

 

[innonimatu]

On the other hand Russia has been shown to be a completely useless ally again , not a peep came from Moscow as Iranian nuclear capability was reduced to rubble.

North Korea, Belarus take note.

North Korea can nuke Washingon already. They have nothing to fear. And Belarus has russian nukes there.
This is an incentive for Iran to now pursue its own nuclear weapons. But it wasn't about nuclear weapons. It was about Israel's government dragging on wars so as to save the skin of oits members. And about Trump releasing some of the domestic pressure on him. Iran continues to build nuclear reactors, which very pointedly were not struck. If and when an iranian government wants nuclear weapons, it will have them built.

The issue is that the two relevant sides to this conflict now need to show the appearance of "winning" before backing off, which I think they know in their best interest if they somehow can manage it. That has been true since the israelis started it. The obvious way out is though having Israel visibly lose it - with the added benefit that it gets the Middle East rid of its major truble-maker, the israeli PM and its hangers-on - but I don't think Trump even now can hang them to dry. And I doubt Iran's governent can rist not responding. We'll see.
It can instead escalate, be extremely bloody, and have second-order consequences around the world and so on. No one sane sould be wishing that. Even while indulging in those stupid internet contests.

I don't think this is quite true; the US could probably mount a much wider campaign of destruction of Iran's vital infrastructure, de-developing the country much more thoroughly than Israel alone is capable of.

Whether the US will actually do this though is anyone's guess.

It can't. It can mount a much larger campaign but it'll necessarily be a short-lived one. The US doesn't have the stocks for another long war and even if it did the logicts are too frail to sustain one in the ME against an well-armed adversary. Iran is phisically larger that the remaining stock of ammunition the US possesses. Plus the US can't risk its most expensive platforms, they are extremely expensive and take too long to replace.There is a reason this attack was limited and Treump is attempting to claim victory and move on - it isn't out of the goodness in his hearth.

This is what makes the situation unusually dangerous compared to other ceisis. People who matter know all this. If not being able to claim a victory endangers the internal stability of Iran, then the iranian government must reply to this attack. Then Trump in turn also responds because he's under the very same constraint. And things escalate further.
For Iran the strategic calculus probably favous a response. Iran can outlast the US in a fight, despite the damage they will to do each other. But think both sides would much rather skip the damage (the fight), just claim victory and move on. Problem: how that be engineered?

 

[r16]

why , Israel decided not to kill him ? Like two sites reportedly destroyed by Israel have been destroyed again by US bombers and cruise missiles . Fordow is out , too , despite Iran moving stuff out a few days ago . Like the Western propaganda has never told us the actual facility is 800 meters down , too . Possibly they might have blocked entrances well enough , even if they are already looking for exits 10 or 20 kilometers anyhow .

 

[red_elk]

Counter that, but safely as I know it will have no effect whatsoever (@r16 doesn't need to be obscure, things can be written plainly and still fly over the heads of those reading), I'm pointing out here that the USSR actually supplied Iraq during the Iran-Iraq war (SCUDS, who manufactured those?) and never moved close to Iran due to past ideological differences and continued mutual distrust until just a few years ago. Iran has been building an AD network mostly of its own systems, and they are effective enough that I still doubt the narrative about any "bunker busters" having been used.

Most vocal Ukraine/Israeli fanboys unaware about complex relations between Russia and Iran, it's not required to even go as far back as Iran-Iraq war. Russia joined sanctions against Iran in 2010-s, as there is nothing good in having another member of nuclear club in such a "stable" region as Middle East. "Russian-made Iranian air defense" was a joke of the month indeed.

 

[red_elk]

Like the Western propaganda has never told us the actual facility is 800 meters down , too .

It would be difficult to claim it was successfully destroyed, then.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Wow, I am enjoying the frustation of the coalition of the pro-russians-iranian fanboys. Always wrong, always clueless, no matter the topic.

 

[r16]

on your behalf , it has been entered that the Spanish air defence will never let any 150 km/h drone hit Madrid . Don't worry , it will be remembered for you .

 

[ConquestsMaster]

@ConquestsMaster so you have managed to show (look at the dates) that I didn't expect a war there before Ukraine stepped up its preparations to attack and subdue the two breakaway republics. Again: look at the dates. The situation escalated after those discussions. After continued escalation. Check when the war actually started. It's what happens when two parties simply can't negotiate a compromise. It should hold a lesson for current evends. But do people ever learn?

I just looked back at the dates, and I suggest you do the same. It confirms what I said and shows that you're lying to yourself. Even hours before the invasion, you clearly said that you thought the invasion was canceled, that Putin was not stupid enough to take the bait and that the fear of war was a product of Western propaganda.

You know you can just admit that you were wrong? What's fascinating is that you did exactly that three years ago. You showed some humility and admitted that you were wrong. But it seems like your insight and self-awareness has degraded since then. Now you're even denying the content of your very own posts when they're presented to you. Or you resort to over-rationalization to appear less wrong.

It's understandable, as the next step, after recognizing that you are wrong, is recognizing that you got fooled by cheap propaganda. You need defense mechanisms (denial, rationalization) to avoid getting there, because it would upend your entire worldview. And by worldview, I don't mean "the US is bad". I'm talking about what transpires from most of your posts: the idea that you're smarter than other people who fall for cheap propaganda, which is consistent with your self-identification as a Cassandra.

And it's a self-perpetuating loop. You get into disagreements with people who ignore your "prophecies", which reinforces your feeling of being a Cassandra. It's unavoidable, because when people present evidence contrary to your worldview, you simply ignore their arguments because they threaten your vision of yourself (except maybe for the very weak arguments, which are easy to disprove and make you feel better).

This is similar to members of cults (whether religious or political, like MAGA). They will deny reality, because what truly matters to them is not external facts, but instead what they feel deep inside, and their current beliefs are comforting even if unfounded. Convincing them to leave the cult is almost impossible, because they will perceive any efforts to do so as a personal attack (the same way you seem to get irritated when people disagree with you, "put up or shut up!").

Your overall thesis is actually very compelling. US foreign policy is indeed horrible and there is intense propaganda to make us believe the contrary. But the issue is that you confuse your desires with reality. You want the US to fail because it is morally bankrupt. Thus, whether we're talking about Ukraine or Iran or something less relevant, you turn any news story into a proof of the depravity and decline of the US. Conversely, all enemies of the US have to be defended, regardless of how awful they might be. And you also focus excessively on your personal predictions of the fall of the US-led bloc, not because it is a certitude, even if it is one, but mainly because that's what you want to see.

This attitude is not unique to you, we all do the same, we all bend reality to some extent to conform to our personal desires. That being said, it's a bit more flagrant in your posts. This is unfortunate. I've been lurking on this forum since 2005. I remember your old posts as very interesting. You presented viewpoints often absent from mainstream news, and you defended them in way that seemed both articulate and educated. Your posts these days would be more convincing if they looked more like your old ones: more detached, less formulaic and less predictable.

Anyway, in the news, satellite imaging from today of the Fordow nuclear site, some craters and ash, but doesn't seem particularly useful to assess the damage:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sat...n-fordow-nuclear-site-after-us-strikes-2025-6

Satellite images show the damage at Iran's deeply buried Fordow nuclear site after massive US strikes​

By Jake Epstein

New satellite imagery reveals damage at the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran after US military aircraft bombed the site.

In the images, which were captured on Sunday by the US commercial satellite imaging company Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider, several large holes or craters can be seen on a ridge over the underground complex at Fordow, south of Tehran.

The images show what looks like a layer of dust or debris caused by the US airstrikes over the area, and several tunnel entrances that lead to the underground facility appear to be blocked with dirt.

An image of Fordow before the strikes on June 20, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies

An image of Fordow after the strikes on June 22, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies

President Donald Trump announced early Sunday morning local time that the US had attacked Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities in what he later described as a "spectacular military success."

He said that US aircraft dropped a "full payload" of bombs on Fordow, one of Iran's main nuclear enrichment facilities. The site is buried deep in the side of a mountain and is the country's most hardened facility.

A close-up view of tunnel entrances at Fordow on June 19, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies

The tunnel entrances after the airstrikes on June 22, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies

Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropped a total of 14 heavy bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities. He described the operation, known as Midnight Hammer, as highly secretive and complex.

Speaking to reporters early on Sunday, Caine said that the B-2s dropped the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or MOP, which is the US military's largest non-nuclear bomb and believed to be the only weapon that is capable of penetrating Iran's deepest nuclear facilities like Fordow.

It marked the first-ever operational use of the MOP, he added.

A close-up view of the ridge at Fordow on June 19, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies

Craters and ash can be seen on the ridge at Fordow on June 22, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies
During a press conference, Caine said that over 125 US aircraft — a mix of the B-2s, 4th- and 5th-generation fighter jets, and aerial refueling tankers — were involved in the operation, which consisted of a considerable amount of deception.

He said that American forces used 75 precision-guided weapons against Iranian targets, including the 14 MOPs, and more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a submarine somewhere in the Middle East.

Caine said the battle damage assessment will take some time, although he said initial indications are that all three Iranian nuclear sites that were struck sustained damage and destruction.

A close-up view of craters on the ridge at Fordow on June 22, 2025. Satellite image ©2025 Maxar Technologies
The US bombing came after a week of sweeping Israeli airstrikes across Iran that officials said were intended to degrade the country's nuclear program and military capabilities. Trump, who had long pushed Tehran to agree to a new nuclear deal, had spent the past few days weighing whether to join Israel in its campaign.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has preferred a military solution to Iran's nuclear program, praised Trump for attacking the Iranian nuclear sites.

Since June 13, Israeli fighter jets have targeted Iran's nuclear sites, top scientists, senior commanders, missile launchers, air defenses, bases, warplanes, weapons production facilities, and other high-profile military infrastructure.

Iran has retaliated by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, many of which have been intercepted.

The US bombing is a major escalation in the conflict that could see Iran retaliate by targeting American forces, as Tehran has threatened to do. The Pentagon has a large presence in the Middle East, consisting of warships, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and ground troops.

Both Trump and Pentagon leadership have called for peace, warning Iran it could see more strikes if that can't be achieved.

 

[r16]

ı have never described myself as one who could interpret bomb damage from satellite pictures , though no doubt tried a few times on commercially available photos on the net , but ı doubt you were expecting the mountain split open and 80 or 90 meters penetrated , which is nominally beyond the 60 m capability of the mother of penetrators ?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Predictions are limited by the known facts and are typically based on rational behaviour by
the parties involved in the issue, and even then they can be no more than a probability.

Thing is facts are not always known, and even if known, parties do not always act rationally,
so that political predictions are inherently uncertain, arguably little more than guided guesswork.

And if a less probable outcome actually occurs, that does not invalidate the person who has
made the prediction and provide a genuine justification for invalidating that person's opinion.

For example I predicted the war in Ukraine will be decided by the party that can first properly
implement drone swarms using advanced AI that can intercommunicate with each other.

What I don't know is which side is making the most progress in that field.

 

[innonimatu]

@ConquestsMaster I frequently under-estimate the stupidity of politicians. And I've mostly given up anyway on discussions online, do don't want you time on amateur pricology, I'm not going to engage further with that.
What will happen will happen, it's out of our hands and attemting to guess at it changes nothing. Even if the public were more grounded in reality versus the projectes images.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

ı have never described myself as one who could interpret bomb damage from satellite pictures , though no doubt tried a few times on commercially available photos on the net , but ı doubt you were expecting the mountain split open and 80 or 90 meters penetrated , which is nominally beyond the 60 m capability of the mother of penetrators ?

I didn't expect much, and I didn't get much lol. We'll have to wait to know how much damage was caused. Tho I presume the Iranians won't want to leak any information.

@ConquestsMaster I frequently under-estimate the stupidity of politicians. And I've mostly given up anyway on discussions online, do don't want you time on amateur pricology, I'm not going to engage further with that.
What will happen will happen, it's out of our hands and attemting to guess at it changes nothing. Even if the public were more grounded in reality versus the projectes images.

You haven't given up on online discussion. You have more than 15,000 posts mostly arguing with people and are still doing so. What you might have done is shift your style of posting from dialogue to monologue, in the style of "here is a proof that I'm smarter than all of you brainwashed people".

 

[EnglishEdward]

I cannot help thinking of the 1963 Cuban missile crisis.

The US blockaded Cuba and demanded the Soviet Union cease installing missile sites.

The Russians agreed and also said they would also dismantle the operational systems already there.

This came as a complete surprise to the US intelligence who had not realised that some of the
soviet installations on Cuba had already been completed and were ready for the launch command.

Now regarding Iran, it has not yet been proven that the Iranians have not already enriched
enough uranium to build nuclear bombs or that the US bombing has destroyed their bunkers.

I therefore remain quite pessimistic.

 

[Joij21]

@innonimatu remember it took Rome five hundred years after becoming an empire to slowly degrade till it did not exist in the West and about another one thousand in the East.

Most of that very long time was spent in decay. It takes a long time for a preeminent power to decline, especially if it has no peer rivals. The exceptions being Assyria, but they were destroyed via direct conquest by a peer power (revolting Neo-Babylonia).

So unless someone actually has the technological capability for a knockout punch, it takes many years for the primitives to catch up and the innovativeness of empire to remain stagnant for long enough whereby they can actually get knocked out. America like Rome is in the same situation, technologically superior in a world whereby it's rivals fight naked and paint themselves blue.

 

[r16]

ach zo . Like Iranians do not have internal divisions with even thicker doors and a hit on the hilltop or six create clouds or even floods of dirt and soil to fly from inside to the outside . And every MAGA is a genius in every field and sees with his/her own eyes that Fordow is no more ... But people , most likely Democrats in the media , expect time and trouble in identifying the true damage . Even if websites are already talking of trucks that removed anything important two days before . Prophecies are important by the looks of it , so , when Iran and New Turkey finally get into all out ground war because Kurdish gods of war , the Peshmerga of Barzanis had already gone soft by 2014 and seperatists are decaying in the same style and oh là lààà , the Iranians have the bomb ?

 

[Voidwalkin]

So, what’s the game plan? Iran still has the knowledge. Condemned to bombing them every few years in perpetuity as they rebuild? Seems if I am Iran at this point a nuclear weapon is my only guarantee of existence. Stupidity has a major cost and that cost is apparently war.

There is no game plan, except to perpetually buy time in this manner, AFAICT.

Iran could theoretically abandon its proxies, liberalize, give equal rights to women and the LGBT community, and cease pursuing nuclear weapons and violent regional domination, I guess.