Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Kyriakos]

Great !
Everything stays the way it is, UK politicians keep crapping on "Brussels", the EU gets the blame for undermining democracy, and in five to ten years the next crop of Bullingdon hog knobbers uses a brexit referendum to play their power games.

Most of the responsibility for all this should (but isn't -- what a surprise) fall on Cameron, who nicely backed down from his own pledge. That said, i really doubt the actual referendum will be cancelled. At worst they will either

-have another referendum (a bit farcical)
-try to shoe-horn this into the general election to come (even more farcical)

Either way, it is not like the voters for Leave will just vanish into thin air. And you can't really be having a new vote just cause you don't like the result of the existent vote. That is the "you can vote, and if you don't vote our way you can keep voting until you get it right".

That said, it nicely shows just how fragile the political life is in other countries as well. And if such a thing was to happen in Germany, they would have been split into their roughly 200 tied states by now (and/or elect a person with a square mustache ). Compare with how stable things are in countries hit massively by austerity, to form a view on not just hypocrisy, but utter lack of contact with what ruining nations means.

Still, i do wonder how this will end for Britain. We will find out sooner or later.

 

[really]

I can see it being the issue for several elections to come. Did you vote for Brexit but don't trust the Tories or Labour to implement it? Vote UKIP.

Did you vote remain but don't trust the Tories or Labour to vote it down? Vote Lib Dem.

Other than article 50 being triggered I don't see it ever going away.

 

[really]

Even if the Prime Minister can use privilege powers to activate Article 50 without Parliamentary approval (which is debateable), Parliament still needs to repeal the European Communities Act to start "reclaiming our sovereignty". That's not even touching all the other various rules and regulations which will need to be either kept or tossed.



Heh. That about describes it, yes.

Surely membership is defined by the EU not by Westminster?

If a valid notification is received and the two years pass it wouldn't really matter what acts are passed in Westminster - the EU would continue without the UK as a member.

Kind of like how Irish independence started out - by ignoring Westminster and behaving as an independent state.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Recession objectively hurts low-wage-earners much more than it does the rich.

Possibly, but when your finances/life quality aren't that great in a non-recession anyway, it's hard to notice or care. The 2008 recession made no noticeable difference to my life or that of my friends, I rarely remember it coming up in conversation at all. I was still at school in ther early nineties, but both my parents were low wage earners at the time and it was pretty much business as usual at home then too.

The kind of people who care are the kind who find they've just had £4,000 knocked off the value of their shares

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Problem is, as I've pointed SEVERAL times in this thread, and despite the very purposeful blindness of the anti-EU, it happens that the EU is the one which attempted to protect worker's rights, and the UK is the one which always tried to block or to opt-out of them.
As such, voting "Leave" is absurdly counter-productive even on this point of view.

I'm just talking about the effects of a recession, I'm not talking about workers rights at all. Not really sure why you're even linking the two things.

 

[Snerk]

I see they resurrected Lord Heseltine. When that happens, you know things are utterly messed up ...

Btw, do the rebel (majority) Labour MPs have actual public support? Cause Corbyn won like 60% of the public vote (actual Labour voters), so it looks a bit way too revanchist to stab him like that. Shameful. :\ Moreover is it even logical to expect anyone replacing Corbyn (imo he will just win again) to do better in the general election to come? He/she won't be voted upon by his fellow blairites there, but the general public.

Corbyn/Stannis owns this position by right.

Also wondering a little about this. Labour members, young ones especially, seems to have been very underwhelmed by Labour establishment for a long time now. So how much sway do the uproar of the MPs carry among the electorate? If I were a Corbynite I'd probably view it as somewhat healthy to stir up a little noise so that more of the old party establishment are leaving. Though I don't really know what kind of interest those Labour MP whom are currently rebelling represents.

 

[Arakhor]

If a valid notification is received and the two years pass it wouldn't really matter what acts are passed in Westminster - the EU would continue without the UK as a member.

Well, yes, but other than the issue of what constitutes a valid notification, we are still required by law to follow EU rules and regulations, whether or not the EU recognises us as a member. Given that Gove is now saying that he wouldn't trigger Article 50 until at least next year, it doesn't seem like the situation is going to be resolved any time soon.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

I'm not necessarily condemning everyone who voted Leave, apart from the racist twits. But there are no doubt plenty of those who didn't vote, or voted to Remain, so it's not like I'm simply tarring one side with a racist brush in order to demonize them.

However, I will definitely condemn people who voted without any idea of the arguments that both sides were making. It seems far more irresponsible to me to simply ignore what prominent politicians are saying, than it is to listen and believe the side that turned out to be making everything up. You don't have to follow either, but an understanding of the ideological ground that each side was staking out would give one a good understanding of the social ramifications of what one was voting for.

Ignoring all of that doesn't give one a pass when the side they voted for wins, and people take it as license to be openly racist. All those who voted Leave need to own those consequences, and ignorance is not an excuse.

Farage is a nobody with zero political power within the UK (well, UKIP has 1 MP, so a finite fraction above zero) so what he had to say about anything WAS irrelevant. Cameron was a different proposition, being the PM and all, but still his opinion is largely irrelevant. If we leave the EU, then we're out forever (or a very long time at least), so what might happen in the short term, and what the current batch of politicians want to waffle about, is a lot less relevant in this scenario than it is in a General Election when you are voting for specific people on policies on a short-to-medium term basis.

So for the EU referendum I was much more interested in the views of economists, businessmen, military experts... well... essentially anyone other than politicians actually.

Anyway, given that I'm pretty sure that neither Cameron nor Farage nor any politician was standing on a platform of "let's be openly racist and firebomb mosques", your point still doesn't make a whole lot of sense anyway.

 

[really]

I should have said in that scenario.

I doubt the EU would be keen on receiving a dodgy dossier from Dave.

 

[Akka]

I'm just talking about the effects of a recession, I'm not talking about workers rights at all. Not really sure why you're even linking the two things.

Because the people most affected in recession are the ones at the bottom of the ladder, and the more outside competition there is, the more they will suffer on top of that.
So saying that people scrapping by have a good reason to vote Leave is wrong, as on the opposite they are the ones who will be hit the hardest and who benefitted the most from the EU.

 

[Mise]

Thanks! Do you have a link or three for all this, by any chance? I love "Spinners and Losers" stories.

Here's a couple:
How Boris was done in by a “****oo in the nest” plot
Gove and Johnson: What happened?

Lots of reporters are trying to piece it all together right now, so expect more "revelations" in the coming days. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if someone reported that Gove was actually Syrio Forel. That's how mad this whole business is right now.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Because the people most affected in recession are the ones at the bottom of the ladder, and the more outside competition there is, the more they will suffer on top of that.
So saying that people scrapping by have a good reason to vote Leave is wrong, as on the opposite they are the ones who will be hit the hardest and who benefitted the most from the EU.

I didn't say they had a good reason to vote leave (although I can see why you thought I was implying that), I was kind of just directly replying to the doom mongering about a recession by pointing out that most people aren't really going to care that much because it doesn't make much difference to them either way.

 

[Akka]

Well, I'd disagree about that anyway. Recessions tend to cause lots of unemployment, and people down on the ladder are hit HARD by it.

 

[Verbose]

Surely membership is defined by the EU not by Westminster?

If a valid notification is received and the two years pass it wouldn't really matter what acts are passed in Westminster - the EU would continue without the UK as a member.

Kind of like how Irish independence started out - by ignoring Westminster and behaving as an independent state.

I'd say the British parliament defines the UK's EU membership. It's in the lawmaking. Since the EU has now powers not handed down to it from national parliaments.

It's just that regardless what the UK CAN do here, it doesn't help with the fundamental problem of sheer bleedin' uncertanity about the UK's status and future — what it WILL do. That's the big problem in the situation. And it is what has add-on effects in the form of uncertanities for the rest of the EU as well.

 

[Verbose]

Well, yes, but other than the issue of what constitutes a valid notification, we are still required by law to follow EU rules and regulations, whether or not the EU recognises us as a member.

That's because right now they ARE simply British law. It needs to be changed for the UK not to follow it.

 

[really]

An opinion poll here taken this week suggests 80% would vote to remain.

 

[Arakhor]

That's because right now they ARE simply British law. It needs to be changed for the UK not to follow it.

Precisely. What's more, it's very doubtful that any free vote to repeal such legislation would work.

 

[Verbose]

Precisely. What's more, it's very doubtful that any free vote to repeal such legislation would work.

Beautifully highlightning the conundrum of the whole situation.

 

[Arakhor]

Of course, we were never supposed to be in this situation at all. Certain demagogues were going to rile up the public and use the public's (ultimately fruitless) ire to coast to a plum job in Downing Street. Unfortunately, they failed to heed Girolamo Savanarola's example and are now suddenly stuck with a situation that they didn't really want, a modern-day poisoned chalice that so far they have only talked about drinking.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Great ! Everything stays the way it is, UK politicians keep crapping on "Brussels", the EU gets the blame for undermining democracy, and in five to ten years the next crop of Bullingdon hog knobbers uses a brexit referendum to play their power games.

Your sig sums up the situation nicely.

The kind of people who care are the kind who find they've just had £4,000 knocked off the value of their shares

The people who lose millions in the stock market crashes are the people who still have millions even after the crash. The effect the recession/crash has on them is kind of like the effect that losing a game of Civ has on you... you're mad, annoyed, your time is wasted, your efforts dashed... so you sigh, frown a bit, then you reload the game and start over, building it all up again, and have a great time doing so.

The folks at the bottom of the economic ladder are more like the digital citizens in your ransacked cities, feeling the pain.