Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Silurian]

The trouble is the Conservatives will now have to justify giving money to Range Rover driving farmers when it was promised to the NHS in the referendum.

Assuming that Brexit will take place late in 2018 that leaves about 18 months until the proposed May 2020 general election. The Government will have deleted many irrelevant regulations etc but much time, effort and publicity will have been devoted to abolishing or changing the others and it will still be in progress in 2020.

A large part of the Brexit vote was a protest about the lack of accountability of London and Brussels to the English regions. The electorate will see that Brexit has not changed anything and will make another protest vote.

The Conservatives have to appeal to people who do not always vote for them to stay in power

 

[Manfred Belheim]

My plan for Brexit:

Scrap winter fuel allowance
Freeze pensions
Scrap free bus passes

Collective punishment is the only way forward. Old people were shielded from austerity and it was the young who paid. And old people also benefited from the likes of university grants, cheap housing, the welfare state and free health care. They were the ones who voted for this, so they can pay for it. They have had things their own way for far too long because young people dont vote. And its not good enough to say that its their own fault.

Okay you really must be trolling now.

 

[Tahuti]

I doubt the UK will end its farm subsidies, protecting food security would probably be more important then ever now with climate change. Without subsidies the UK would be flooded with EU subsidized produce instead.

Given that the Rual population traditional conservative voters voted for Brexit, I dont see subsidies ending.

We are a shortsighted species.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Isn't it? If the UK is no longer part of the EU, then European legislation stops applying, automatically.

That doesn't mean any and all UK laws shaped by EU policy in the last 40 years need to be repealed instantly.

 

[Arakhor]

That doesn't mean any and all UK laws shaped by EU policy in the last 40 years need to be repealed instantly.

I agree. It would be a colossal procedure to attempt such a thing anyway and rather ignores how you define "shaped by EU policy". Is that only EU regulations and directives or is it something much more broad-ranging?

 

[Manfred Belheim]

The trouble is the Conservatives will now have to justify giving money to Range Rover driving farmers when it was promised to the NHS in the referendum.

No such promise was made and anyone voting on such a basis was deluded, especially seeing as the government currently in power is always doing its best to kill off the NHS anyway.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

I agree. It would be a colossal procedure to attempt such a thing anyway and rather ignores how you define "shaped by EU policy". Is that only EU regulations and directives or is it something much more broad-ranging?

You'd have to ask the people who are scaremongering about the chaos it would cause, and yet are also inexplicably insisting that it must be done. Kind of like they just want to watch things burn.

 

[Arakhor]

No such promise was made and anyone voting on such a basis was deluded, especially seeing as the government currently in power is always doing its best to kill off the NHS anyway.

I've already pointed out that people don't vote in their own rational self interest, but given the whole business with the Vote Leave bus, there must be many thousands of deluded Leave voters out there.

You'd have to ask the people who are scaremongering about the chaos it would cause, and yet are also inexplicably insisting that it must be done. Kind of like they just want to watch things burn.

It certainly would cause chaos attempting to pull a stunt like Edward suggests with his 'simple' act signed by the Queen, but the Guardian had a story just recently about someone who voted Leave simply to spite the Government and share his pain around. I can't imagine he's the only one unfortunately.

 

[Mise]

No such promise was made

The problem is, the "leave" campaign is a HUGE tent. Some people will have voted on the basis that the UK will replace EU subsidies, whether that's the CAP or development subsidies for Wales and Cornwall. Leave campaigners have, in fact, made promises for all of these things. They're just made by different people, in different parts of the tent. And they're promises that can't possibly all be kept.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

I've already pointed out that people don't vote in their own rational self interest, but given the whole business with the Vote Leave bus, there must be many thousands of deluded Leave voters out there.

Many thouasands out of 17 million isn't too much to worry about really.

It certainly would cause chaos attempting to pull a stunt like Edward suggests with his 'simple' act signed by the Queen, but the Guardian had a story just recently about someone who voted Leave simply to spite the Government and share his pain around. I can't imagine he's the only one unfortunately.

Well I was actually talking about the pro-remain people who seem to be acting out of spite. But I guess there's spiteful people in all camps.

 

[Arakhor]

Many thouasands out of 17 million isn't too much to worry about really.

I suspect that literally millions of people voted on the basis of economic issues, many of which are likely to have been influenced by that infamous promise. Obviously, we can't know why and in what numbers people voted specifically, but 'sovereignty', immigration and money back from the EU were amongst the biggest reasons to vote Leave.

We've had most of the grieving process from Remain by now, so it remains to be seen if and when Leavers start getting 'buyer's remorse' in large quantities. As Silurian said, the Tories are going to have an uphill struggle getting reelected unless Brexit really does lead to the mythical land of milk, honey and EU-free goodness.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

I suspect that literally millions of people voted on the basis of economic issues, many of which are likely to have been influenced by that infamous promise.

Again... it wasn't a promise. At least I've not seen any instance where it was promised. If you know of one I'd be happy to see it. The most I ever saw was statements like:

"We pay £350 million per week to the EU. That money could go to the NHS instead."

Yeah... it COULD go to the NHS, but we have a Tory government so it's not going to is it.

 

[Mise]

 

[Mise]

In case you can't see that on your phone or something, it's literally a picture of Boris standing in front of a poster that says "Let's give our NHS the £350m the EU takes every week".

I'm sure that was just a mistake. Oopsy daisy!

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Hmm, okay, but still not a promise. Plus I presume that would be Boris "not in charge of the government" Johnson who couldn't make such a promise anyway?

 

[Traitorfish]

"Not a promise" in the sense that is not strictly phrased as a promise, or "not a promise" in the sense that the typical voter would not interpret it as a promise?

That's an important distinction.

 

[Silurian]

Borris Johnson's poster may not be legal promise but it is what the government will now be judged against. This will be especially true if Andrea Leadsom, Brexiteer, wins the election to be prime minister by the conservative party membership, most of whom support Brexit.

 

[Akka]

Hmm, okay, but still not a promise. Plus I presume that would be Boris "not in charge of the government" Johnson who couldn't make such a promise anyway?

Seriously, you're grasping at straws so much it's embarassing...

 

[Manfred Belheim]

"Not a promise" in the sense that is not strictly phrased as a promise, or "not a promise" in the sense that the typical voter would not interpret it as a promise?

That's an important distinction.

The former. I'm not going to speculate on the insight of the "typical voter".

 

[Thorgalaeg]

The very definition of (mindless) populism.