Verbose
Deity
Only if the EU no longer exists.
The blind faith in Germany's either will or ability to save the UK from itself is touching.
Is Britain about to leave the EU?
- Thread starter Mega Tsunami
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The blind faith in Germany's either will or ability to save the UK from itself is touching.
Oerdin
Deity
Germany's companies will pressure Germany's government to keep trade open. Look up how much the export to the UK and see how much they have to lose.
When in doubt follow the money and Germany's businesses are there to make money not play politics.
When in doubt follow the money and Germany's businesses are there to make money not play politics.
Oerdin
Deity
Germany's companies will pressure Germany's government to keep trade open. Look up how much the export to the UK and see how much they have to lose.
When in doubt follow the money and Germany's businesses are there to make money not play politics.
When in doubt follow the money and Germany's businesses are there to make money not play politics.
Verbose
Deity
And?
The way you're going about this if this is what people actually think, Germany might try "preassuring" (btw I am curious what it is you think Germany actually can and will do here, in concrete terms, not this kind of high abstraction you're currently going for) and any member of the V4 will just go: "No", and that will be it. Except you, and maybe the UK Brexiters, will blame Germany for the outcome anyway, since none of you seem to have bothered to check the internal workins of the EU which makes Nay-sayers a lot likelier to get their way every time.
Especially if Germany will get the blame anyway, due to outsiders thinking that's how it works when Germany fails to deliver. Hardly disincentivices them either.
EnglishEdward
Deity
No, what I want is the right of the UK to make its own laws and us to live under them.
If a UK national had, while in the USA committed a serious crime, the question
should indeed be about extradition to the USA, but that is not the case here.
Hacking is illegal under UK law. If the USA has evidence that a UK national living in the
UK has, operating from the UK, hacked into US systems, it should send such evidence
to the UK's Crown Prosecution Service who could charge that UK citizen under UK law.
The USA is effectively saying that its laws apply to UK citizens living in the UK.
This is nothing less than legal imperialism, that should be very promptly rebutted.
But our government and judiciary appear to be surrender monkeys and wimps.
Little is gained in the people voting Leave to regain and retain sovereignty,
if the government surrenders it again.
The quote about the use of evidence being similar has been obsoleted by the
USA practice of water boarding foreign nationals to obtain false confessions.
EnglishEdward
Deity
I tend to agree. The EU is hardening its stance on the UK to discourage others.
It is a bit like watching a divorce. What may be sensible is not always followed.
Even if the German government wants free trade, the rest of the EU have to agree,
and I cannot see that other EU member states, without such lucrative net export
balances to the UK, agreeing that unless the German government agrees to increase
its contribution to the EU budget to fully make up for the loss of the UK contribution.
Actually, extraterritorial jurisdiction is something that virtually all countries, not least the UK, routinely exercises. Territorial jurisdiction is one of a number of proper bases for jurisdiction recognised under both international and common law (particularly when you look beyond criminal law).
It's perfectly in keeping with a country's sovereignty to accede to a request for extradition - the key point is that it's not mandatory, and to the extent that it is mandatory, that's only in a contractual sense.
Verbose
Deity
Something like that. The risk lies in 27 individual governments having to agree, and Germany being just one of them.
IF the EU was the kind of hard-ball set up where jack-booted Germans stomped around and put the hurt on everyone, after 40 years of marriage, even the UK would have been subjected to some form of that kind of behaviour.
It never has been, and the idea that German will decide and the rest don't matter is part of the kind of myth-making about the EU's inner workings that was also on display in the Brexit campaign. The reports of the undemocratic character of the EU was grossly exagerated before Britain decided to take plunge, and won't work in Britain's favour somehow not that is has — because it's not actually a correct representation of the EU.
Even if Germany is arguable the hegemon inside the EU — and that's at best partial, due to Germany not being particularly dominant, and being even less willing, the position being rather thrust on it than picked up or even wanted — there are good reasons nations might want to forego such honours, beginning with precisely having to expend treasure, and even blood, so that everyone doesn't have to, and usually in everyones' but it own interest.
The hegemon gets to be the hegemon by doing what it takes to be a hegemon, while the powers it's hegemonic over look after their own interests. Accepting German industry's trade interests takes a hit would rather be what a hegemon might have to consider to do. So maybe the label will fit Germany in the end after all? There seems a fair bit of apparent misunderstanding about what hegemon can and have to do.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Pardon me, but I am not diverting down the separate rabbit hole of civil law now.
Extraterritorial jurisdiction has for criminal law traditionally been about extending
jurisdiction into the high seas or where no reasonable jurisdiction exists (e.g. Somalia).
Extradition has traditionally been about returning fugitives
to the country where they committed the crime.
For the UK government to contract away citizens's rights, dating back
to Magna Carta, to a foreign government is a very slippery slope indeed.
And if it feels that it it is obliged to, then sovereignty has been lost.
I know the lawyers won't concede that, but they live in a world of
legal rules that are not necessarily consistent with geopolitical reality.
They also have the habit of extending such rules to maximise
their remit and earnings in a number of quite dangerous ways.
Hence my use of the word traditional.
For instance there are practical issues. A UK citizen is expected to
comply with UK laws. How can a UK citizen be expected to comply with
all jurisdictions' laws? What happens if Iran or Saudi Arabia wants to
extradite you or me for the crime of drinking beer in Australia or the UK.
My point is that it is not reasonable for a person at home in London to
be expected to know of and comply with USA laws federal and/or 51 states.
And I admit that the UK is a culprit too, trying to extend its laws on libel.
I like your down under use of the term "kangaroo court".
In such cases the odds are completely against the defendant, to a US jury he is
a foreigner and the US government will hire a team of the best lawyers they
can find, while the defendant only gets a bargain basement public defender.
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
@Verbose
But the figures below show how much Germany would have to give up. Just how many job losses would they be prepared to put up with? Not as many as you think, I bet.
You sound like Tusk & Juncker when you say let German trade take a hit.
Those two have no electorate to answer to but Mrs Merkel does have one (and soon) and I am pretty sure she is going to put that electorate first before wanting to punish Britain (out of petty spitefulness) for the temerity of exercising her democratic right.
Mrs Merkel will have a big, big influence on the final agreement without doubt. And, IMO, some sort of freeish movement of both goods and people will be worked out.
Oerdin is right, these are astonishing figures:
From the Telegraph this week:
Why Germany and the UK must become close allies
Britain and Germany have developed a symbiotic economic relationship: without the City, Frankfurts own financial centre and German industry would be weaker; without our import-hungry consumers, German manufacturers would be plunged in crisis.
The scale of Germany GmbHs dependence on UK consumers is laid bare in a fascinating report from Barclays; Olga Tschekassin and Tomasz Wieladek, two analysts at the bank, have dived deep into the numbers. Their key revelation is that Germanys current account surplus with the UK is now worth a massive 1.7pc of German GDP and 20.4pc of its total surplus.
We matter immensely to German exporters, something which will matter hugely in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The vast bulk of this current account surplus is made up of a trade surplus; this has been in a 0.5pc-2pc of GDP range for the past 20 years but has been trending up recently. It is clear that Britain has become a permanently more important market for German companies in recent years.
The UK is now Germanys third largest export partner, the Barclays analysts report, with 90bn (£76bn) worth of sales last year. The countrys nominal exports to the UK increased by 50pc between 2010 and 2015. No less than 7.5pc of all German goods exports were sold to Britain in 2015, a large number given that we dont purchase many machine tools or other heavy products of the sort Germany also specialises in, unlike emerging economies. Tschekassin and Wieladek point out that cars and other vehicles sales were worth 25bn, or half of Germanys trade in goods surplus with the UK.
In the past, recessions in Britain have therefore unsurprisingly been bad for Germany: they led to a prompt reduction in demand for German goods. Any punitive post-Brexit attack on Britain that was sufficiently vindictive and destructive to hurt our economy would therefore also hurt German companies, causing immediate job losses and a political fallout in Berlin.
It is vital, therefore, that Germany and Britain work closely together to help maintain UK-EU trade relations that are as free as possible after Brexit. The two countries are natural allies: they share broadly the same values when it comes to trade and economic integration.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/08/why-germany-and-the-uk-must-become-close-allies/
But the figures below show how much Germany would have to give up. Just how many job losses would they be prepared to put up with? Not as many as you think, I bet.
You sound like Tusk & Juncker when you say let German trade take a hit.
Those two have no electorate to answer to but Mrs Merkel does have one (and soon) and I am pretty sure she is going to put that electorate first before wanting to punish Britain (out of petty spitefulness) for the temerity of exercising her democratic right.
Mrs Merkel will have a big, big influence on the final agreement without doubt. And, IMO, some sort of freeish movement of both goods and people will be worked out.
Oerdin is right, these are astonishing figures:
From the Telegraph this week:
Why Germany and the UK must become close allies
Britain and Germany have developed a symbiotic economic relationship: without the City, Frankfurts own financial centre and German industry would be weaker; without our import-hungry consumers, German manufacturers would be plunged in crisis.
The scale of Germany GmbHs dependence on UK consumers is laid bare in a fascinating report from Barclays; Olga Tschekassin and Tomasz Wieladek, two analysts at the bank, have dived deep into the numbers. Their key revelation is that Germanys current account surplus with the UK is now worth a massive 1.7pc of German GDP and 20.4pc of its total surplus.
We matter immensely to German exporters, something which will matter hugely in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The vast bulk of this current account surplus is made up of a trade surplus; this has been in a 0.5pc-2pc of GDP range for the past 20 years but has been trending up recently. It is clear that Britain has become a permanently more important market for German companies in recent years.
The UK is now Germanys third largest export partner, the Barclays analysts report, with 90bn (£76bn) worth of sales last year. The countrys nominal exports to the UK increased by 50pc between 2010 and 2015. No less than 7.5pc of all German goods exports were sold to Britain in 2015, a large number given that we dont purchase many machine tools or other heavy products of the sort Germany also specialises in, unlike emerging economies. Tschekassin and Wieladek point out that cars and other vehicles sales were worth 25bn, or half of Germanys trade in goods surplus with the UK.
In the past, recessions in Britain have therefore unsurprisingly been bad for Germany: they led to a prompt reduction in demand for German goods. Any punitive post-Brexit attack on Britain that was sufficiently vindictive and destructive to hurt our economy would therefore also hurt German companies, causing immediate job losses and a political fallout in Berlin.
It is vital, therefore, that Germany and Britain work closely together to help maintain UK-EU trade relations that are as free as possible after Brexit. The two countries are natural allies: they share broadly the same values when it comes to trade and economic integration.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/08/why-germany-and-the-uk-must-become-close-allies/
Verbose
Deity
Well, does the UK want to be able to prosecute foreigners that have committed crimes in the UK?
They way your version seems headed, British criminals commiting crimes abroad should be safe once in Britian, with the add on effect, since the UK won't play ball here, that foreigners committing crimes in Britian should assume to be able to escape prosecution if they can just make it out of the UK.
Clearly you cannot maintain freedom of movement across borders like that.
Lillefix
I'm serious. You can.
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I know how to fix that. Britain joins the European Union,
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
Or even better, there is a breakaway NWEU consisting of Germany, The Netherlands, all the Scandaweigans and us. Now that would work, I am sure.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Please read the particular details about Lauri Love.
This is not about someone committing a crime in another
country and then crossing a border to escape justice.
Lillefix
I'm serious. You can.
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Or even better, there is a breakaway NWEU consisting of Germany, The Netherlands, all the Scandaweigans and us. Now that would work, I am sure.
Working for a small company in a country where almost all the good engineers and workers go to big companies where they pay very well, I foresee a problem. We need a source of good labourers who can accept working at slightly lower wages than average. How can we solve that...
Cheetah
Deity
Why would we want you along?Or even better, there is a breakaway NWEU consisting of Germany, The Netherlands, all the Scandaweigans and us. Now that would work, I am sure.
But seriously, the EU will have to make some kind of unanimous decision on this eventually. Some kind of compromise where a very high limit to workers from each EU country is implemented (cutting the total number of foreign workers with a few percentage points) and with high enough tariffs on UK goods to go along with it (but still make it possible for German industry to slightly profitably trade with the UK) could maybe be considered. But then there are the services which the UK wants to sell to the EU. That's gonna be a very hard sell if you already traded some access for goods with some limits on movement of people...
The entire Brexit is just a bad idea. Of course the UK won't be destroyed, but it will be worse off than if it remained. And yes, the EU will take a hit, but much less than the UK, and the EU too, will manage. In essence, Brexit is just choosing to avoid an illusion that the UK has given away their rights, sovereignty and economic wellbeing inside the EU, for an illusion that you will get more rights, sovereignty and economic wellbeing by trying your luck alone in the world market.
It's a little bit like Braveheart, but in Tunbridge Wells.
Verbose
Deity
What is it you and Oerdin think Germany CAN do about it?
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
Dexit.
No, seriously, Germany in general and Mrs Merkel in particular seem to get their way a lot. I am talking about gentle persuasion here, not the jack boot type.
But it is not just Germany that will have to think about their electorate. There are several other countries that might not need too much persuasion to find a deal and make the V4 accept a compromise:
Verbose
Deity
Considering we are talking, among others, about governments that are consciously and deliberately advancing down the road of populist "illeberal" democracy, do they strike you as particularly reasonable or prone to compromise?
The odds seem rather better that free movement inside the EU in general just ends — making the question of free movement for the British moot in the process — rather than the UK being given special privileges about it as an outsider.
Anyway, if the UK wants anything here, it STILL needs to work on the other 26 as well. Germany alone won't do. That's some kind of weird fantasy about the UK's assumed ability to keep the EU hostage vicariously. It could do it, by being the biggest stick-in-the-mud, when it was a bona fide full member of the EU. If it's not, then it's some weird fantasy of being able to hold the EU hostage by holding Germany hostage. Won't work...
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