Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[HAND]

In the demented dreams of both? I'm sure that neither the "UK rabid nationalists" and the "EU rabid federalists" actually represent enough people to actually matter.

Well, all it takes is another terrorist attack in Europe and more refugees/migrants to paddle across the Med/Aegean to give the Leave campaign the edge it needs, considering it's 50/50 who wins at the moment.

 

[AdrienIer]

This makes no sense to me. Subsidies are not supposed to exist indefinitely. That's a sign of failed economic policy. And basically sums up what's wrong with Europe. Protectionism doesn't work. And we would be perfectly able to feed ourselves with a shrunken market in agriculture. Not being able to import food from Eastern Europe and Africa, instead being forced to pay for higher priced goods from domestic markets, makes food more expensive for everyone. You are basically saying it's fine for EU tax payers to subsidise one of your industries. Would you say the same if it was British industry? Our steel industry is suffering at the moment. How's about some eu cash to help them out?

French industry is also struggling. The question is : do we really need a striving industry ? European leaders don't seem to think we do. But they decided a few decades ago that growing our own food was less risky than importing everything. If the climate deteriorates and there's less food available we'll be glad we still have some food produced at home because the rest of the world won't be selling it as much as they do now.
Actually protectionism is what we're not doing right now. Our tariffs with the rest of the world are much lower than theirs. The EU's ideology (and IMO its ruin) is complete, 100% free market. It's almost pathological.
What we are doing is making sure that we produce enough food to feed ourselves. We're not doing it efficiently, I'll give you that. But as a general rule making sure your people have food is a sign of a not-so-terrible leadership.

And once again, it's not "our" industry, it's an important industry in Spain and Italy as well, a not-minor industry in Germany and also in the UK. The CAP is also vital for the development of rural Poland and Romania. If it was only France's thing it would have disappeared a long time ago.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Ok so from what I can find in 30mn on the internet, the CAP budget made up 71% of the EU budget in 1984. The 40% it is today means it has shrunk compared to the rest of the EU budget. So the EU is evolving from a Franco-German deal to favor both of them to a real union that doesn't favor anyone particularly.
The second thing I could find is that while France is indeed the first receiver of the CAP, it's not just because the game is rigged in our favor. It's because we've got the most farm land in the EU. The percentage of the CAP we get is pretty much equal to the percentage of farm land we have in Europe.
So in less than a half hour of research I've found that not only are English people whining over nothing but they're also basing their reasoning on completely false premises.

Neither of the things you've found really counter the claim that it's rigged in your favour.

The first one just proves that it's less in your favour than it once was.

The second one shows that, relative the amount fo farmland you have, the distribution is "fair", but given that the system will have been first set up with this fact in mind, it hardly rules out the possibility of it being rigged. Kind of like a "personal allowance per centimetre of height" fund might be seen as being rigged in the favour of the Dutch, if they had a big hand in setting it up in the first place.

 

[AdrienIer]

So you're saying that agricultural subsidies should not be given to the countries with the most agricultural subsidies ? How would you want it to be distributed then ? More agricultural subsidies to the countries who have less agriculture ?

 

[HAND]

Subjectively maybe. It is yet to see if brexit would benefit somebody in practice.

If Brexit does happen, the UK would be free in future to make it's own trade deals and not be a part of the future evolving EU superstate. Minor details really

 

[Lillefix]

If Brexit does happen, the UK would be free in future to make it's own trade deals and not be a part of the future evolving EU superstate. Small details really

As mentioned earlier in this thread. The terms of the trade deals will probably be worse if Britain stands alone. So not a reason to laugh.

 

[Flying Pig]

French industry is also struggling. The question is : do we really need a striving industry ? European leaders don't seem to think we do. But they decided a few decades ago that growing our own food was less risky than importing everything. If the climate deteriorates and there's less food available we'll be glad we still have some food produced at home because the rest of the world won't be selling it as much as they do now.
Actually protectionism is what we're not doing right now. Our tariffs with the rest of the world are much lower than theirs. The EU's ideology (and IMO its ruin) is complete, 100% free market. It's almost pathological.
What we are doing is making sure that we produce enough food to feed ourselves. We're not doing it efficiently, I'll give you that. But as a general rule making sure your people have food is a sign of a not-so-terrible leadership.

And once again, it's not "our" industry, it's an important industry in Spain and Italy as well, a not-minor industry in Germany and also in the UK. The CAP is also vital for the development of rural Poland and Romania. If it was only France's thing it would have disappeared a long time ago.

I'm always a bit suspicious of the 'we need to feed ourselves' argument - the UK hasn't been self-sufficient in food since before the Great War, and still wasn't during the last war despite massive mobilisation of land and labour. There are now nearly twice as many of us: the idea that we're ever going to be able to avoid having to rely on shipping food in from abroad is ridiculous. I don't know what the numbers are like for the rest of Europe, but suspect they're similar, and probably for the EU as a whole. With that said, farming subsidies make some sense from an environmental point of view. Given the choice to buy beef from Ireland or slightly cheaper beef from Argentina, British customers will rationally choose the Argentine beef, which isn't good for the planet.

 

[HAND]

As mentioned earlier in this thread. The terms of the trade deals will probably be worse if Britain stands alone. So not a reason to laugh.

That's a matter of opinion to be frank. I'm not saying there won't be a turbulent period after Brexit, but things can and do go well.
One example is Iceland who withdrew it's application from the EU, since they concluded they would better off outside with their own currency and making free trade deals with China etc. It's delusional to suggest that the UK cannot get favourable trade deals outside the EU.

 

[AdrienIer]

I think continental Europe feeds itself. Almost everything I buy has a label "produced in France or in the EU", and we're exporting some of it too. My guess is that the EU in general feeds itself even if the UK has to rely on imports from the continent.

 

[AdrienIer]

One example is Iceland who withdraw it's application from the EU, since they concluded they would better off outside with their own currency and making free trade deals with China etc. It's delusional to suggest that the UK cannot get favourable trade deals outside the EU.

Wut ? Iceland was never in the EU (the application hardly does anything) so withdrawing the application was merely coming back to the previous situation. Which is very different from being in the EU and wanting to get out of it.

 

[Flying Pig]

I think continental Europe feeds itself. Almost everything I buy has a label "produced in France or in the EU", and we're exporting some of it too. My guess is that the EU in general feeds itself even if the UK has to rely on imports from the continent.

That's not quite the same - I'm willing to bet the supply patterns are different for the meat you see on sale in the supermarket versus that which goes into a hamburger from a fast food restaurant, for example, to say nothing of the various components of things like ready meals or in the vein of mayonnaise ('made in the UK' doesn't preclude getting the eggs from France and the oil from Greece).

 

[AdrienIer]

Actually the label is "produced with meat from France or the EU", my mistake. It may be true that fast food restaurants don't always do so.
From a small research I found that European countries are among the biggest food exporters in the world, and nowhere near the biggest food importers. I could only find this map : I think we're doing ok in the EU, apart from the UK and Finland. And even if we were struggling to feed ourselves it wouldn't be a very good argument to reduce our agricultural spending.

 

[HAND]

Wut ? Iceland was never in the EU (the application hardly does anything) so withdrawing the application was merely coming back to the previous situation. Which is very different from being in the EU and wanting to get out of it.

My point was, Iceland foresaw that they were better off outside and acted accordingly. The UK could act accordingly also given it's own situation. Of course, they are two different scenarios.. but I have no doubt the UK can thrive outside the EU.

 

[Arakhor]

I don't doubt that we will survive outside the EU, but it certainly won't be the strawberries and cream I've heard bandied around, where we'll be able to trade with Europe on our terms and so on.

 

[AdrienIer]

Yes but the treaties were negotiated with Iceland before it considered joining the EU, not after it left theatrically claiming they'd be much better without the rest of Europe. There was no reason to renegotiate with Iceland, and every reason to ask for more from the UK once it leaves.

 

[uppi]

I'm always a bit suspicious of the 'we need to feed ourselves' argument - the UK hasn't been self-sufficient in food since before the Great War, and still wasn't during the last war despite massive mobilisation of land and labour. There are now nearly twice as many of us: the idea that we're ever going to be able to avoid having to rely on shipping food in from abroad is ridiculous. I don't know what the numbers are like for the rest of Europe, but suspect they're similar, and probably for the EU as a whole. With that said, farming subsidies make some sense from an environmental point of view. Given the choice to buy beef from Ireland or slightly cheaper beef from Argentina, British customers will rationally choose the Argentine beef, which isn't good for the planet.

You would probably think differently if you had experienced a famine in your country while the ports were blockaded. Continental Europe has a much fresher memory of not having enough food.

 

[HAND]

By the term "better off" say with regards to Iceland, I mean better off in the terms of control over the national currency and politically, not just economically.

There is no land of milk and honey whether the UK decides stay or leave the EU.. but if the UK does leave, it would be better off politically at the very least, since the EU is inevitably evolving into a superstate and nation state democracy within the EU will be slowly suffocated over time. Every crisis that hits the EU is used to grab more power in the name of "stability" and "integration". I find it pretty terrifying to watch to be honest.

I've seen other EU citizens saying things like "they feel sorry for ordinary British people since they are being dragged out of the EU" but I feel the same way about them, since the vice-like grip of the EU strengthens inexorably, but they seem fine with it?

We can debate the details about whether the UK would get a fair trade deal or not leaving the EU and other relativist points, but that doesn't change the fact that the EU is heading in one direction only and that is towards a European federal state and talk of "reform" is merely used to placate sceptical difficult countries like the UK.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

So you're saying that agricultural subsidies should not be given to the countries with the most agricultural subsidies ? How would you want it to be distributed then ? More agricultural subsidies to the countries who have less agriculture ?

I'm just saying that this evidence is not what it's claimed to be. It doesn't refute the claim at all and is in fact completely compatible with it.

 

[Borachio]

The question immediately before that is national identity. I hadn't realised there was a "British" option there. That might actually mean 37m could be an underestimate of actual English people, assuming there's some people who are clearly English saying they're British instead.

Well.

I remember filling in that 2011 census and refusing to answer the ethnicity question (as per my normal policy).

But strangely I have no recollection of the nationality question at all.

(Where's the box for people who can't remember things to tick?)

Although, come to think of it, the nationality of all British passport holders - strictly speaking - is British. And there isn't any other answer to give. (Except you can have dual-citizenship, I guess. But there certainly isn't any English passport to apply for.)

Or so I was told > 45 years ago: "When asked for your nationality on any forms you have to fill in, always reply "British"". Maybe it's all changed, I dunno.

Even so....

In the end I find it baffling that anyone can know, or can think that they know, that they really are English. Or any other ethnicity, come to that. If English even qualifies as an ethnicity.

Equally, I don't see why black people seem to think they can't be English - whether they like it or not.

 

[Flying Pig]

You would probably think differently if you had experienced a famine in your country while the ports were blockaded. Continental Europe has a much fresher memory of not having enough food.

I'm not questioning that famines are bad, I'm questioning that providing all of our own food is possible. In the UK, it wouldn't be possible to feed all 70 million of us without imports, even with the best will in the world. I was suggesting that the same may be true of at least some countries in continental Europe.