Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Manfred Belheim]

Yes but they need to hire students from other countries, they must apply for grants, and they must travel a lot to conferences with their peers. Such things are poised to become more expensive and time consuming with Brexit

Well so what? This all happened before the EU existed. It still happens now with countries outside the EU (the US being a pretty major player in most research fields). It's not going to stop because it's in no-one's interest for it to stop, either for the individuals or the nations in question. You don't need to be part of an overarching political union in order to conduct joint research and exchange knowledge. That would be... overkill to say the least. So a few students might have to fill in a few extra visa applications and pay a little more money (which comes from the government anyway). Boo hoo frankly.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

At least Theresa May had enough sense to go herself, when visiting selected EU Capitals do discuss Brexit issues with the respective PMs and Presidents, instead of sending Boris Johnson. The very sight of him, might motivate the rest of the EU to invade Britain instead.

Invade ? No.
Maybe collapse the channel tunnel...

So, it looks like there's bad news for those who hoped German businesses would push for a generous deal to get access to the UK market.

The head of Germany’s largest business group has said German firms will not push for a free trade deal between the EU and Britain after Brexit, despite the number of cars and quantities of other goods they sell in the UK.

In remarks likely to be seen as increasing the chance of a “hard Brexit” excluding Britain from the EU single market, Markus Kerber, head of the BDI, dismissed claims that German companies would not tolerate trade tariffs after Britain leaves, and said Germany’s relations with the rest of the bloc were more important.

“I have read a lot of articles in the British press saying Germany would be a relatively soft negotiator because 7.5% of German exports go to Britain,” Kerber told BBC Radio 4’s today programme. “Well, 7.5% is a big number – but 92.5% goes somewhere else.”

[...]

A survey of the EU-27 by the Bloomberg news agency also revealed unanimous opposition to the UK remaining a member of the single market if it refused to accept freedom of movement.
Positions in Brussels and the other EU capitals were hardening, the survey found, with even traditional allies such as Ireland now insisting Britain should not be allowed to “cherry pick” in upcoming exit negotiations.

Several countries are demanding Britain end up with “inferior” terms to those it currently has, while others want it to keep paying into the EU budget in exchange for whatever benefits it does get. Some countries, particularly in central Europe, have threatened to veto any Brexit deal that does not guarantee the rights of their citizens to live and work in the UK.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

^^^^

Hugh... that is at first surprising. And on second look worrying for a Germany. It strongly implies that German companies are fine with Brexit for the sake of a more closer European Union.

And it is my impression that if you have a slight idea of what "closer" means, you should be worried as well.

The European Union has a record of being the Union of large business.
Think about that: The EU commission is more neo-liberal than most European countries, evidenced by CETA. The new Canadian government actually was less neo-liberal than the EU (as stated by tagesschau - which is like the German evening news, just way bigger and supposedly independent). And this is Canada. The EU means essentially a democratic unsupported massive drift to the economic right, like we did not have already a lot of that without it since the 80s. It severely lacks proper media attention to monitor what is even going in (and that is already a big issue on the national level where you have at least an established landscapes of people who communicate) and even more importantly lacks a culture of responsibility. They want a European identity? They have none themselves! As evidenced by the Euro crisis. They only got the identity which is sponsored by cooperation.

We have a European Court which tends to judge most of all by the principle of the free flow of capital, goods and labor. No joke, this freaking court is concerned with the question weather it is legal that German employees are guaranteed a share in the heading of a company because say Spain does not. Because this may discriminate non-German EU workers for having not that privilege. And that gives you all the idea you need.

The fundamental issue is that there is, actually, no European common theme other than catering to business. Literally none. And that is not in sight of changing in any substantial manner. And issue is that the EU is very clearly moving forward to put this theme above all else, since it is the only one it can effectively work and the one it is so well guided to work (by lobbying).

Money triumphing over democracy is a universal vast problem. And the EU is like Europes biggest companies came together to discuss how to further this triumph in Europe. Which, actually, is exactly how the Euro came about. It was an idea by an official European lobbying group to maximize profits. And the politicians picked it up as some grand vision, freaking ignoring all the dame solid counter-arguments of Economic scientists. Plenty of them in Germany who argued against it. Very good never refuted arguments, but actually consistently substantiated arguments. And actual most primitive basic monetary theory every arsehole learns in his second semester.

There is so much more I could say, and all I already said is based upon valuable sources, not some nutty website or yt video or some BS like that. That is reality unfolding, but you surely may miss it by following the news.

Yeah thanks for having me rant.

 

[Arwon]

https://twitter.com/DavidTCDavies/status/786492752959799296

UK MP upset about rising price of Marmite due to Brexit trashing their currency, has this to say:

"So Unilever using Marmite prices to punish us for Brexit. toast-spread fight back starts here. From now on It's Aussie made Vegemite for me."

I assume nobody has told him how exchange rates work.

Wales and England and maybe Northern Ireland are screwed.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Dooooooooooooooom

 

[Terxpahseyton]

Exchange rates are an instrument for financial institutions to make money. It is a betting game as any other. The ideal is that exchange rates are a direct response of how competitive an economy is and this ideal is not without real reflection. This ideal is, after all, the reason why the Euro sucks for some European countries (while being great for countries who gave up on a trade balance as a goal of economic prosperity). But Brexit exactly shows how it is not and how it is just another betting game. There is no clear idea what Brexit actually means for the competitiveness of the British economy. There is merely a clear idea that it is bad and as any mindless betting game, the financial markets at large follow the trend like a mindless swarm fish.

So yeah, this guy is right, the UK is actually punished for the Brexit simply because of superficial perception, because superficial perception is what rules the financial market. You as well may call it hearsay.

So what exactly, Arwon, did this guy not understand?

Dooooooooooooooom]

Well if that is directed me - there is no doom. But it is a natural reaction to reject a large and deeply reaching change if you weren't mouth-fed it already and it isn't ingrained popular inception. That is just how people tick. They do not want to associate with the outsider. They want to be insiders, man. And there are so many crazy weird people that it becomes all the more fun to retreat to that comfort zone of a position.
It still makes you a dumb wannabe, and myself angry. But in a few hours I forgot all about it and live on my life and you life on your life, and none of us gives a crap or does a crap. But at least I was a sovereign democratic citizen. Yeah I take some a bit of pride in that. Just because I like it. You are welcome not to, after I have said my words.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

If German business leaders want a closer EU it means they have ulterior motives, but (German) business leaders always have ulterior motives.
Yeah, a lot of what the EU does is neoliberal nonsense, but it's also keeping national governments in check that would like to be even worse.
I would say that Merkel's complete mismanagement of the Euro- and Greek crisis are evidence that Germany is more a negative influence on the EU than the EU is on Germany. You think a CDU government wouldn't have already signed CETA ?
You think a CDU government wouldn't have signed an agreement like TTIP with the USA ? The opposition from other countries, particularly France, is the reason we don't have a criminal and democracy dissolving "free trade" agreement with the USA right now.
Merkel tried to abolish net neutrality in the EU and she failed. Thanks to the EU she can't even get rid of it in Germany.

The EU is a very mixed bag, but I still believe it does more good than harm. The drift to the right started with Raegan and Thatcher (and Kohl and Schröder). It is not caused by the EU, it is the cause of everything that is wrong in the EU.

 

[Arwon]

So what exactly, Arwon, did this guy not understand?

That due to the collapse of the Pound, Vegemite, which is manufactured in Australia and exported to the UK, will *also* get more expensive.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

You make good points, GoodSarmation, but yes, I actually think the examples you listed wouldn not have passed under a mere national leadership. Not because this leadership would not want that, but because they would be held far more accountable and would have far less accursed to want it.

Merkel heading the end of net neutrality on her own, nationally?
HAHAHAHAHA
This spine-less women would rather eat her own jacket (please don't transfer this into her having proven spine regarding refugees - that is an entire universe of its own). But the EU provides cover. That is the main issue. Traditional national mechanisms of checking on politics are broken or worn down. And there are no European mechanism to remotely properly replace them.

@Arwon
I fail so see where you got that from, at all. Especially after I just went through the effort to explain how that is not true (as in, not true that he contradicted this fact).

 

[Arakhor]

Don't worry though, the pound needed to drop because it was highly over-valued.

No news on what happens if it reaches parity with the dollar.

 

[Arwon]

@Arwon
I fail so see where you got that from, at all. Especially after I just went through the effort to explain how that is not true.

Sorry what? The pound only buys $1.60 or so now. It bought over $2.00 in January. UK importers therefore have to spend like 20% more to purchase Vegemite from Australia now. A 5.60g jar costs about 8 dollars. A year ago that was 4 pounds. Now it's 5 pounds. I don't think importers will just eat that imported inflation.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

By not true I mean not true that the quote you actually responded to was in any sort of conflict with that fact. Rather, it , while overtly crude, actually explained it correctly, whereas you acted like this guy was just nuts and did not understand economics. But this is not economics, as in ideal economic theory. This is financial markets being mad houses as usual. And this is you acting like it was economic theory because it fits your narrative.

 

[Gigaz]

Well so what? This all happened before the EU existed. It still happens now with countries outside the EU (the US being a pretty major player in most research fields). It's not going to stop because it's in no-one's interest for it to stop, either for the individuals or the nations in question. You don't need to be part of an overarching political union in order to conduct joint research and exchange knowledge. That would be... overkill to say the least. So a few students might have to fill in a few extra visa applications and pay a little more money (which comes from the government anyway). Boo hoo frankly.

Boo hoo indeed
I doubt that the interests of Britain are concern of anyone. Many are worried that there may be a move to reduce the number of international students, which at any given time make up a sizeable share of the total non-British population. May will want to present some good numbers at the end of her turn. Who knows what they are going to do.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...n-foreign-students-dodgy-evidence-duff-policy

 

[Arwon]

By not true I mean not true that the quote you actually responded was in any sort of conflict with that fact. Rather, it , while overly crude, actually explained ii correctly, whereas you acted like this guy was just nuts and did not understand economics. But this is not economics, as in ideal economic theory. This is financial markets being mad houses as usual.

He's accusing a private company of raising prices to "punish" Britain when that's complete lunacy. It is clearly due to the impact of import appreciation on the pound-denominated costs of production of Marmite.

And he's done that while extolling an alternative competitor that will also be experiencing imported inflation (likely more due to being entirely foreign). I don't know what other conclusion can be drawn.

Although let's be honest, Vegemite *is* better than Marmite.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

You make good points, GoodSarmation, but yes, I actually think the examples you listed wouldn not have passed under a mere national leadership. Not because this leadership would not want that, but because they would be held far more accountable and would have far less accursed to want it.

Merkel heading the end of net neutrality on her own, nationally?
HAHAHAHAHA
This spine-less women would rather eat her own jacket (please don't transfer this into her having proven spine regarding refugees - that is an entire universe of its own). But the EU provides cover. That is the main issue. Traditional national mechanisms of checking on politics are broken or worn down. And there are no European mechanism to remotely properly replace them.

Not on her own, but through some CSU or FDP peon. Since it's an European matter the job went to Oettinger.
I wouldn't overestimate how much cover the EU actually provides. It has worked in many cases, but the resistance against TTIP and CETA is pretty significant and public. The EU makes it more likely that European right-wing governments try more outrageous crap, but it doesn't mean they're much more likely to succeed since their plans can be stopped by less right-wing states or the European Parliament.

 

[JohannaK]

I am with GoodSarmatian. It is defeatist to dismiss the EU as a neoliberal institution, simply because it cannot be more neoliberal than its members. It is the elected leaders of member states that rule and steer over the Union as a whole, the lack of accountability being due sinply to the fact that with 27 leaders blame is way easier to dilute. This does not mean that the project needs to be abandoned, but simply steered in another direction.

Would you abandon ship because it heads to Florida instead of New York or would you steer it to New York?

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Well if that is directed me - there is no doom.

No it was a reaction to "England and Wales are screwed".

 

[Arakhor]

Apparently, there's a new set of cards out called "British History Timeline". The below is the last card in the set. (I don't think much of the cardstock used.)

Spoiler :

 

[really]

As Irish and British food supply chains are closely integrated Unilever is trying to increase prices in Ireland too.

If I were buying Marmite I would expect the price to be falling here in Euroland, not rising.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I am with GoodSarmatian. It is defeatist to dismiss the EU as a neoliberal institution, simply because it cannot be more neoliberal than its members.

Sure it can
EU is principally neoliberal, jfr four freedoms

Would you abandon ship because it heads to Florida instead of New York or would you steer it to New York?

And I am the one getting criticised for "talking In slogans".

To go with it though, the ship is the problem