Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[EnglishEdward]

Well, if there is up to 40% less fish being taken (by EU fisherman) in UK waters and a gradual increase in UK fishing then it might work better than before. There are lots of deprived areas along the east coast with the North Sea especially, that would certainly gain from an increased stake in fishing. There will probably a UK quota system of sorts after Brexit.

There's a petition here for UK residents seeking the return of British fishing waters to the UK after Brexit by the way:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/185827

Here's a breakdown of the petitions signatories:

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=185827

Understandably fishing centres across the UK are eager to sign.

Thank you for pointing this out to me. I have just signed that petition.
But I think that there may be a problem with poachers though.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Since we're posting graphics anyway, here;s something of interest:http://geoawesomeness.com/top-30-maps-charts-explain-european-union/

Notice especially graph no 4; it shows the parliamentary overrepresentation of the UK and the underrepresentation of Germany vs the other big countries. (And who is leaving again?)

Do try looking at the right map:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/map.html

According to which the UK has 73 MEPs while Germany has 96 MEPs.

According to:

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

UK Population is: 65,404,768

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/germany-population/

Germany Population is: 80,648,383

 

[Arakhor]

According to this article, the "Great Repeal Bill" (which has a totally farcical name, as if it's akin to the great social acts of the Victorian era) is proposing to allow ministers to change legislation without the support of Parliament!! Is the Government running scared of literally everyone now??

 

[EnglishEdward]

According to this article, the "Great Repeal Bill" (which has a totally farcical name, as if it's akin to the great social acts of the Victorian era) is proposing to allow ministers to change legislation without the support of Parliament!! Is the Government running scared of literally everyone now??

The article is internally inconsistent. I will pick on one example only.

On Thursday, the government will publish its Great Repeal Bill, which will ensure EU law no longer applies in the UK after Brexit.

It includes proposals for the government to be given a "new time-limited correcting power" which would allow
changes to be made through so-called Henry VIII clauses - without needing the approval of Parliament.

The government says it needs the power to make "technical" changes quickly as a lot of EU law
will not work properly without changes being made.

(A) If the EU law no longer applies to the UK, then why is there a need for the UK (Parliament or not) to change it.

(B) The UK Parliament cannot change EU laws anyway.


There are rumours that the plan is to incorporate much of the 27,000 EU law and regulations into UK law and then have some
legal clerks draft line by line changes. Well if that stupidity is the approach, then the title "Great Repeal Bill" is indeed irrelevant.

And by the way, at the moment the EU can change its laws and therefore the laws in the UK without the UK Parlament's approval.

Sir Keith Starmer seems to be doing his best to do the EU negotiator's job for him, by demanding the UK agrees financial liability.

And if so, if Henry VIII was about today, he would no doubt look to off Sir Keith Starmer's head at the Tower of London.

Not sure one can make much more in advance of Sir Keir Starmer's speech on Monday or the publication of the bill on Thursday.

 

[EnglishEdward]

There has been much talk of the benefits of the single market to the UK, but without any supporting analysis other
than vague satements that one in nine jobs are linked to the EU with the inference being Brexit means those jobs might go.

However some analysis has been undertaken regarding the benefits of firstly trading with the
EU (and its predecessors) over 43 years and trading within the single market for the last 23 years.

http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/itsquiteoktowalkaway.pdf

I quote:

Over the 43 years of EU membership, UK exports of goods to 11 long-standing members of the EU have grown just two per cent more, and at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) just 0.02 percentage points higher, than 14 countries trading under WTO rules.
EU12 exports to each other have grown just 1 per cent more than the exports of these 14 countries. In other words, the growth of goods exports of the UK to 11 long-standing members of the EU over these 43 years are barely distinguishable from those of 14 countries exporting under WTO rules, and they of course have not incurred any of the costs of EU membership.

Over the 23 years of the Single Market, however, exports from these same 14 countries have grown 27 per cent more than exports from the UK, at a CAGR that is 0.93 points higher.
Norway and Iceland, members of the EEA, and Switzerland and Turkey, which have had bilateral agreements with EU over most of these years, have performed similarly and very much better than the EU members and the UK.

 

[Takhisis]

(A) If the EU law no longer applies to the UK, then why is there a need for the UK (Parliament or not) to change it.

(B) The UK Parliament cannot change EU laws anyway.

The whole point is to actually replicate those parts of EU legislation which Parliament considers it would be useful to keep enforcing in the UK…

There are rumours that the plan is to incorporate much of the 27,000 EU law and regulations into UK law and then have some
legal clerks draft line by line changes. Well if that stupidity is the approach, then the title "Great Repeal Bill" is indeed irrelevant.

but yes, of course, when the Prime Minister starts a referendum expecting to win it and then his successor is just as clueless, you need a general election, preferably with none of the incumbents being allowed to stand.

 

[Gigaz]

There has been much talk of the benefits of the single market to the UK, but without any supporting analysis other
than vague satements that one in nine jobs are linked to the EU with the inference being Brexit means those jobs might go.

However some analysis has been undertaken regarding the benefits of firstly trading with the
EU (and its predecessors) over 43 years and trading within the single market for the last 23 years.

http://www.civitas.org.uk/content/files/itsquiteoktowalkaway.pdf

I quote:

I know people are putting a lot of work into this, thinking about economic repercussions of the Brexit. But this is not at all about prediction making. This is more like, the EU wants some fallout in the UK so that afterwards noone follows up on Brexit. And this is crucial to the point where the existence of the EU depends on it.

 

[Arakhor]

(A) If the EU law no longer applies to the UK, then why is there a need for the UK (Parliament or not) to change it.

Are you aware that most EU legislation has to be added to each country's lawbooks by the countries in question? As such, there's a whole tonne of "EU" laws that will not magically be repealed by leaving the union.

 

[Takhisis]

‘2-legs EU bad, 4-legs non-EU good’

 

[EnglishEdward]

The whole point is to actually replicate those parts of EU legislation which Parliament considers it would be useful to keep enforcing in the UK

Yes, but that is not best undertaken by replicating nearly all, and then weeding without a parliamentary overview as implied by references to Henry VIII clause etc in the article and elsewhere.

I know people are putting a lot of work into this, thinking about economic repercussions of the Brexit. But this is not at all about prediction making. This is more like, the EU wants some fallout in the UK so that afterwards noone follows up on Brexit. And this is crucial to the point where the existence of the EU depends on it.

Then it is a waste of time negotiating and the UK would be better off leaving without agreement.

Are you aware that most EU legislation has to be added to each country's lawbooks by the countries in question?
As such, there's a whole tonne of "EU" laws that will not magically be repealed by leaving the union.

The position varies from country to country. For the UK, some EU legislation is gold plated by member state legislation, some is not and applies directly.

And such goldplating laws are strictly speaking member state laws, not EU laws, and can be repealed by each departing member state at leisure.

Thing is trying to mix introducing (replication), repealing, and amending a large number of laws in a single bill is not an efficient way to proceed.

They do not seem to have grasped that when it comes down to particular laws and regulations, they will be saying to themselves.
Do we replicate, amend or repeal this? We do not know that yet because that depends upon the outcome of negotiations.
And if the negotiations drag on, there will not be time to properly scrutinise the details of the do everything repeal bill legislation.

I rather think it best to pass the repeal, to be effective from the left date, of all directly applicable or cascaded EU laws and regulations quickly.

And then separately add back legislation of whatever is actually required as an outcome of negotiations etc.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

The position is the same for all EU countries. EU rules mostly through directives which must be transposed to each member own legislation in a given term. Once transposed these are laws already in UK own legal system and brexit will not change anything per se.

It also rules through regulations which directly apply overruling over member laws, but usually regulations only are used in common market matters, so if UK leaves common market most regulations will automatically not make sense anymore.

 

[Yeekim]

The position is the same for all EU countries. EU rules mostly through directives which must be transposed to each member own legislation in a given term. Once transposed these are laws already in UK own legal system and brexit will not change anything per se.

It also rules through regulations which directly apply overruling over member laws, but usually regulations only are used in common market matters, so if UK leaves common market most regulations will automatically not make sense anymore.

This.
"Gold-plating" refers to practice of transposing directives in a manner that goes further than what is strictly required.
Sometimes, directives themselves forbid it.

According to this article, the "Great Repeal Bill" (which has a totally farcical name, as if it's akin to the great social acts of the Victorian era) is proposing to allow ministers to change legislation without the support of Parliament!! Is the Government running scared of literally everyone now??

I think this is probably the only even remotely realistic way to go about that unfathomable task.
Don't blame your government (not present one, at least), blame voters.
If I was a public servant in UK responsible for any part of Brexit, I'd be a suicidal alcoholic already.

This is spoken as someone who is actually responsible for transposing certain pieces of EU legislation in Estonia. The depression/panic one can see in the eyes of my British colleagues is downright painful to glimpse at times. I really, really, really don't envy them right now.

 

[EnglishEdward]

It now appears that the changing of the details of the law will be more akin to the process of statutory instruments laid
before Parliament that take effect after a set perioid in the absence of a vote for discussion rather than Henry VIII style.

I am not going to argue now about directly applicable EU law and that applied by secondary member state legislation.
particularly as the practice has changed over forty years. The current position is I believe reasonably summarised at:

http://www.europedia.moussis.eu/books/Book_2/2/3/3/index.tkl

Yes, well as an ex civil servant I know that it is always a little depressing to be told that what you have been diligently
doing for many years is all wrong because the government policy on it has changed and that work has to be reversed.

In a democracy it is proper for the voters to instruct the polticians and then for the politicians to instruct the civil servants,
but it is amazing how often, at least in the UK, the latter parties think that it should be the other way around.

 

[FriendlyFire]

This.
This is spoken as someone who is actually responsible for transposing certain pieces of EU legislation in Estonia. The depression/panic one can see in the eyes of my British colleagues is downright painful to glimpse at times. I really, really, really don't envy them right now.

Delicious Remainers pain are like mana from heaven to the Leavers.
I;ve come to the conclusion that many are like Trump supporters, nothing will move them from their beliefs that leaving the EU will make Britian great again. That UK will be signing free trade agreements with everyone, Immigration control will result in huge numbers of jobs appearing, all the money given to the EU will be spent on NHS and domesticly. Rule Britanina.

Facts and experts dont matter to them, Saddly this makes a Hard brexit more likely which is going to be chaotic.
Maybe the EU can rush through an emergancy Immigration break for the UK, the UK can use this, the EU can then agree to a delay of 7 years that would be best for all involved.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Delicious Remainers pain are like mana from heaven to the Leavers.
I;ve come to the conclusion that many are like Trump supporters, nothing will move them from their beliefs that leaving the EU will make Britian great again. That UK will be signing free trade agreements with everyone, Immigration control will result in huge numbers of jobs appearing, all the money given to the EU will be spent on NHS and domesticly. Rule Britanina.

Facts and experts dont matter to them, Saddly this makes a Hard brexit more likely which is going to be chaotic.
Maybe the EU can rush through an emergancy Immigration break for the UK, the UK can use this, the EU can then agree to a delay of 7 years that would be best for all involved.

If the EU is so great when will Australia be applying to join?

 

[Arakhor]

Could you perhaps come up with a less sensible retort?

 

[HAND]

Maybe the EU can rush through an emergancy Immigration break for the UK, the UK can use this, the EU can then agree to a delay of 7 years that would be best for all involved.

I think the question now is whether there will be a UK-EU trade deal or not, the UK is leaving the EU hard Brexit style regardless.

 

[Takhisis]

Yes, but that is not best undertaken by replicating nearly all, and then weeding without a parliamentary overview as implied by references to Henry VIII clause etc in the article and elsewhere.

Given that Henry VIII actually broke with the Pope because he wanted a renegotiation of the Treaty of Tordesillas and then had sycophants come up with the divorce shenanigans being the only reason -and thus the King of England was never to blame for anything- the nickname is rather apt. Oh, and he caused a lot of damage in Ireland, but to this very day that is standard operating procedure for English governments.

If the EU is so great when will Australia be applying to join?

…

 

[Broken_Erika]

If the EU is so great when will Australia be applying to join?

What about Fiji, Cambodia and Madagascar?

 

[FriendlyFire]

If the EU is so great when will Australia be applying to join?

More to the question is that Leavers reasons for voting Brexit are all real, including anger at the economic and political system failing a large segment of the population. Saddly like the US with Trump both the reasons and solutions being peddled are dubious to stupid outright lies.

Again how are the Leavers going to fullfill the promise of access to the common market, Border control over EU citizen and NOT pay any contributions money ?
And now UK is guaranteeing automotive makers either same access to the EU or UK will be subsidizing the Auto industry

Just look at CETA, it had visa free traval requirements for EU citizens, and mostly is limited free trade since Canada main exports are mostly minerals. limits on argiculture and dosent include services (probably due to distance)
The UK trade with the EU is x10 so there is some more leverage but it also makes trade agreement x10 more complicated