Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[luiz]

Guys at the end of the day this is the fault of a majority of British voters, not of Cameron. There was a long debate, everybody is aware of the potential consequences, and yet they made this choice. If they hate the EU so much to shoot themselves in the foot like this, then Cameron did nothing that would not happen in the long run.

Edit: and he paid the extremely high political cost of tearing his party in ugly public infighting, and even put his future as PM on the line. All in all I don't think he behaved poorly.

 

[luiz]

And something tells me that prime commercial real estate in Frankfurt and La Défense are going to enter boom times...

 

[HAND]

Time for a snap election?

Maybe.. it's literally all happening.

I actually felt sorry for Cameron during that speech.. I think he was just inherently out of touch with the majority and possibly relying on advisers who were also relying on flawed tactics and data.

 

[Akka]

It's certainly a democratic choice, but Cameron made such a circus of his "battles" against the EU to constantly shore up special benefits and exemptions for the UK, and always showing himself as the bulwark against Brussel, that he certainly ended up hurting a lot the perception of the EU in Britain.

 

[Arwon]

Guys at the end of the day this is the fault of a majority of British voters, not of Cameron. There was a long debate, everybody is aware of the potential consequences, and yet they made this choice. If they hate the EU so much to shoot themselves in the foot like this, then Cameron did nothing that would not happen in the long run.

Edit: and he paid the extremely high political cost of tearing his party in ugly public infighting, and even put his future as PM on the line. All in all I don't think he behaved poorly.

I'd put a lot of it on people who were too precious to keep voting Lib Dem as the lesser evil in Tory/LD races because "durr no difference". He clearly thought he could drop the referendum in a new coalition agreement but then, oops, split opposition votes lead to a majority.

Nothing good comes of not behaving tactically in "lesser evil" situations that demand it.

 

[luiz]

It's certainly a democratic choice, but Cameron made such a circus of his "battles" against the EU to constantly shore up special benefits and exemptions for the UK, and always showing himself as the bulwark against Brussel, that he certainly ended up hurting a lot the perception of the EU in Britain.

That's true. But I think the main issue is that he miscalculated the feelings of the British people. If they were not persuaded by arguments from the Bank of England, IMF, OECD and pretty much every respectable organization on the catastrophic cost of leaving the EU, I don't think it was Cameron that pushed them the other way. There is something deeply rooted there.

 

[Uncle Sparky]

He did something stupid and risky, and when it blew up in his dumb face he took the coward's way out.
Who's just like Hitler now ?

Cameron just annexed Austria!

p)

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Of course the irony of all this is that it was the heartland LABOUR regions wot won it for Leave. Some will blame it on Corbyn's lukewarm campaigning for remain, but the fact remains that the white working class is still quite conservative in many ways, even if they'd vote for a donkey in a red rosette.

I think Cameron does need to resign at some point, but I think being gone by October is too soon. Conservative leadership campaign + new PM at same time as trying to figure out how to actually get divorced feels like a lot.

 

[really]

Now the only thing left to the EU is to invade Britain and split it among pro-EU states like Great Scotland, New Celtic republic and Londonistan.

Edit: Seriously while I am greatful to Britain for giving up a finger to the present EU leadership there may be a time for united Ireland and Gibraltar rejoining Spain as well as free Scotland.

Therewas still a significant leave vote in Northern Ireland - unionists and loyalists might have considered the merits and practicalities of leaving the EU but it isn't going to sway them away from identifying with Britain.

A return of customs and border controls in places like south Armagh could stir up republicans though.

Those are scary thoughts.

 

[Verbose]

Of course the irony of all this is that it was the heartland LABOUR regions wot won it for Leave. Some will blame it on Corbyn's lukewarm campaigning for remain, but the fact remains that the white working class is still quite conservative in many ways, even if they'd vote for a donkey in a red rosette.

I think Cameron does need to resign at some point, but I think being gone by October is too soon. Conservative leadership campaign + new PM at same time as trying to figure out how to actually get divorced feels like a lot.

The only really good argument about democracy in this Brexit referendum I can think of, is that if the British public, like it turns out (OK not the Scots), do not support contiued EU membership, then the UK cannot remain in the EU without doing its own democracy a nuisance in the end.

Same thing with the PM. He bet on putting the EU matter to rest with a referendum (bad choice, of a very divisive mechanism) so he could move on as PM of a conservative British government that wouldn't have to deal with EU-scepticism every step. He lost. Clearly he has to go. The outcome of this referendum is pretty damn clear about at least that.

In other countires instant parliamentary elections should be in order.

 

[Arwon]

The fact that the vote in NI split largely on sectarian lines which is extremely ominous.

(And the unionist leave vote kind of bizarre?)

 

[Akka]

That's true. But I think the main issue is that he miscalculated the feelings of the British people. If they were not persuaded by arguments from the Bank of England, IMF, OECD and pretty much every respectable organization on the catastrophic cost of leaving the EU, I don't think it was Cameron that pushed them the other way. There is something deeply rooted there.

I'd say that what's deeply rooted is the increasing anger at the inequality in the world and the domination of big money - hence the rise of populism. As such, it's hardly surprising they wouldn't really be keen to be convinced by the very things they hate. The problem is, the EU is perceived by sceptic as the tool of such globalized oppression, while it's in fact mostly the exact opposite - it's actually the single best tool to prop up regular people's rights against a corporate world, by channeling enough power to enforce regulations and protections.

And I blame such discrepancy with the habit politicians have made to blame the EU for their mistakes, while taking for themselves the credit when the EU force positive regulations.

 

[luiz]

Labor leaders also need to share some of the blame as Labor strongholds voted en masse for Leave. In fact the reason this upset happened was exactly nobody predicting the droves of Labor voters coming out to vote Leave.

 

[Arakhor]

Well, now we can look forward to halcyon days of sovereignty, controlled immigration, £350m a week for the NHS and a glorious future as a major independent trading power...

... by starting with the worst fall in the pound for 30 years, worse even than the Global Financial Crisis and the stockmarket crash in the late '80s. I wouldn't want to be a Leaver when I realise what's just happened.

 

[Flying Pig]

The fact that the vote in NI split largely on sectarian lines which is extremely ominous.

(And the unionist leave vote kind of bizarre?)

It's also what always happens. The DUP (the main Unionist party) are extremely right wing, while the Republicans are keen to keep the border with the Republic open - as they always have been, but I'm sure they like to say that they have different motives these days. Broadly speaking, the left-wing/right-wing vote is always Catholic/Protestant, Republican/Unionist, whenever they go about it.

 

[luiz]

I'd say that what's deeply rooted is the increasing anger at the inequality in the world and the domination of big money - hence the rise of populism. As such, it's hardly surprising they wouldn't really be keen to be convinced by the very things they hate. The problem is, the EU is perceived by sceptic as the tool of such globalized oppression, while it's in fact mostly the exact opposite - it's actually the single best tool to prop up regular people's rights against a corporate world, by channeling enough power to enforce regulations and protections.

And I blame such discrepancy with the habit politicians have made to blame the EU for their mistakes, while taking for themselves the credit when the EU force positive regulations.

Well yes, there was something for everyone in voting Leave. There were definitely the populists who wrongly saw the EU as a tool for "capitalist oppression". There were also liberals who wrongly saw the EU as nothing more than heavy regulations and useless subsidies. There were the ignorants blaming EU for immigration even if the majority of immigrants are not and haven't been for many decades from Europe.

In short, the EU was turned into a scarecrow. But it also needs to do some soul searching. I think over the last 15 to 20 years the EU hasn't worked very well, and it definitely hasn't communicated well at all.

 

[Akka]

Labor leaders also need to share some of the blame as Labor strongholds voted en masse for Leave. In fact the reason this upset happened was exactly nobody predicting the droves of Labor voters coming out to vote Leave.

I take this high "leave" vote from worker's strongholds as another evidence of the argument I made above.
It's ironic that so many people voted in the end against their own interests due to political discourse basically reversing responsabilities (it's the UK which constantly protected the City from regulations, and it's the EU which is blamed for protecting the big money ; now we'll see if the UK public will ever realize that what they thought they disliked about the EU was actually from their own government to begin with, or if they will pull a Russia and continue to blame everyone but themselves for their own errors).

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Of course the irony of all this is that it was the heartland LABOUR regions wot won it for Leave. Some will blame it on Corbyn's lukewarm campaigning for remain, but the fact remains that the white working class is still quite conservative in many ways, even if they'd vote for a donkey in a red rosette.

That fills me with pity, sadness, and a little bit of Schadenfreude.
Even when they begin to feel the effects of Britain's restored sovereignty and absence of overbearing EU regulation on worker's rights they'll probably misdiagnose the problem and still blame immigrants.

 

[really]

The fact that the vote in NI split largely on sectarian lines which is extremely ominous.

(And the unionist leave vote kind of bizarre?)

It isn't an exact split - some unionists had to have voted remain to produce an overall result like that.

Generally the further from the border you were the more likely you were to vote leave. That ties in broadly with the sectarian split and the nationalist parts of Belfast voted remain.

The DUP were big on sovereignty etc. - it helped that Sinn Féin were for remain.

 

[Tahuti]

It's also what always happens. The Unionists are extremely right wing, while the Republicans are keen to keep the border with the Republic open - as they always have been, but I'm sure they like to say that they have different motives these days. Broadly speaking, the left-wing/right-wing vote is always Catholic/Protestant, Republican/Unionist, whenever they go about it.

Any chance Britain could see very severe civil unrest Arab spring style? The results do not seem to be bode well in regards to NI and Scotland, given the stakes of EU membership involved there.