I blame the continued tenure of the Conservatives in Downing Street as people failing to vote for their own interests, but unless we're going to stoop to Farage levels, we at least get a general election at least once every five years.
Is Britain about to leave the EU?
- Thread starter Mega Tsunami
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Never going to happen. Scotland will demand a new referendum, and if they get it will probably vote leave. Northern Ireland will have to negotiate some treaty with Ireland for free movement of people and goods, if they don't have one that predated the EU already. It will be a mess, the UK may well go into recession, but civil unrest is just bogus.
Probably retired idiots who don't think they'll live long enough for this to bite them in the butt. Gibraltar is so screwed.
NI can't negotiate on it's own - it will be a UK Ireland agreement.
The problem was highlighted before - there is a common travel (and work, live, vote etc.) area between the UK and Ireland, and all Europeans have the right to live and work in Ireland - they aren't easily reconciled.
Well but that's not insurmountable. It will be a hassle, probably demanding ID card checks and whatnot, and there will be economic losses for sure, but it doesn't mean the end for either Ireland.
But yeah the examples of NI, Gibraltar and many others highlight the gigantic mess this will be. All of Europe is going to pay the price, even if it will definitely be much worse for the UK.
On the bright side, maybe France will get some of the high quality immigrants that nowadays almost invariably head up to the UK, and will stop losing so much of its native talent to that country.
Mount Suribachi
Prince
Nobody in the leadership or media perhaps? UKIP came second to Labour in 70 seats at the last election. The problem is there are two Labour parties. The leadership and the chattering classes, students, and twitterati with their high minded progressive politics. And then ordinary working class Labour voters. The first group loves to talk about the second group and how they're being oppressed, and struggling under Tory austerity, yadda yadda yadda - without ever actually having much contact with them. They should come and spend some time on the factory floor at my workplace talking to ordinary working class Labour voters - they'd be horrified at the disconnect in their ideals and how little these ordinary people appreciate the contempt with which they are treated, how little they appreciate being told what's best for them. It was no surprise to me that they came out and voted heavily to leave because I work with them.
Farage and others talk about the "Westminster Bubble". The map showing how each region voted was startling. Scotland, bits of N.Ireland and London were yellow (remain). The entirety of the rest of England and Wales was blue (leave). Which shows that to be fair its not just the northern working class towns that want out. There was a tweet from someone in the middle of the night declaring it was all over when the commuter belt results started coming in, and they were all Leave as well.
Akka
Moody old mage.
It is relative to the 19,000 that voted remain.Well, that's hardly specific to Gibraltar, though :
Well what you mention is the problem faced by all of the European left, not just the British one. For the last couple of decades now they've only been composed of well-off big city types, and their main causes are multi-culturalism, environmentalism, etc... turns out poorer workers aren't so interested in that. In fact while they may appreciate some environmental measures, as long as it doesn't cost them their livelihoods, they're usually quite hostile to multi-culturalism and resent being forgotten by the party(ies) that were supposed to look after them. Hence the rise of the Front National in France and similar parties across the continent.
GoodSarmatian
Jokerfied Western Male
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Fix what ?
The EU already made a deal with Turkey to shoot refugees trying to cross the border from Syria.
What else should be done ?
The number of boat crossings from Libya into Italy has skyrocketed since Turkey stopped allowing human smuggling across its borders.
It's obvious that Europe's border patrol budget needs to be multiplied by something like 20 or 50. It's a small fraction of the US border control budget, event though the EU has a much bigger and and more dangerous border zone. Also, Europe needs to deport people much faster (again, like the US already does). Otherwise backlash against the EU and the rise of the far-right will continue.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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They may push, and they may even get it. But the way Northern Ireland can be "unified" with the Republic is in a free trade and movement treaty outside the EU - between the UK and Ireland. There will be no appetite in Northern Ireland for jumping from the uncertainty of the new status of the UK to the greater uncertainly of a small Ireland in a decaying EU. The irish were themselves bullied by the EU with the Lisbon Treaty and that has not been forgotten.
I put the odds of new a referendum in Scotland at zero. If the SNP talks too much about independence again a new leftist Labour stands a good chance of gaining back most of the Scotland seats in a future general election that is looking likely to happen soon. The SNP's talk of a new referendum at a sensitive time for the UK (renegotiation of treaties) will feel too much like "opportunistic treason" at a critical moment and not sit well except with its most hard-core voters - who are a small fraction of the population.
A lot depends of whether Corbyn can cleanse the Labour party of the blairite europhiles, but the outcome of this vote should encourage him. He's made a good call by embracing the result, against those MPs - Labour will have its internal war but it's clear now where its voters stand - they voted in protest both in Scotland (enabling the SNP) and now.
The thing to watch for now are the results of this weekend's spanish election. That should provide an indication of the mood in continental Europe, and the EUs chances of enduring or changing rather than collapsing. If Podemos wins you can bet on the end of the EU...
I believe they will win. And I wouldn't be surprised if Iglesias focuses on a referendum on Spain's permanence on the EU taking priority over regional independence referenda. It would be a political master stroke: enabling PSOE to join in a coalition government, getting Spain out of an alliance that is contrary to the political agenda of Podemos and never benefited Spain, and channeling spaniard's hopes towards building a "new europe" with the UK and the other countries willing to leave the EU - thus postponing the issues of regional separatism. The separatist's logic was that they could exit Spain immediately but remain with an almost unchanged situation within the EU; that is no longer attractive, a new long-term approach will be needed.
Wow.
Didn't expect this, after the murder and media focus on that.
I hope more countries get a referendum. Surprised that the Eu finally gets news that it sucks, regardless of it happening by largely unscathed by the Eu Britain..
@The british posters: I hope things go smoothly.
Didn't expect this, after the murder and media focus on that.
I hope more countries get a referendum. Surprised that the Eu finally gets news that it sucks, regardless of it happening by largely unscathed by the Eu Britain..
@The british posters: I hope things go smoothly.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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For the benefit of the other people reading this: hogwash, the EU is controlled by ordoliberal politicans and bureaucrats - the "market" is always right and it is the state's job to enforce the "will of the market"... creating it if necessary!
Interesting.
At any rate, the british vote is beyond just obviously a catalyst for new things.
(re Akka, lol, 'the Eu is against globalised oppression'
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