Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[HAND]

A good discussion here between The Guardian's Owen Jones and Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1fNkj5i0LM

 

[really]

One month to go - still nothing happening in the debate.

I haven't thought of a positive remain argument - when arguing for the status quo it really is about things they will loose.

 

[luiz]

Bookies are giving 75% x 25% odds that Britain will remain in the EU, so I guess it will.

 

[Arakhor]

Farage has started making noise about a second referendum, which was just what the SNP did when opinion turned against separation in Scotland, so I assume that even he thinks that he's likely to lose.

 

[Takhisis]

One month to go - still nothing happening in the debate.

I haven't thought of a positive remain argument - when arguing for the status quo it really is about things they will loose.

Nicola Sturgeon agrees with you. And so do I.

 

[Borachio]

Farage has started making noise about a second referendum, which was just what the SNP did when opinion turned against separation in Scotland, so I assume that even he thinks that he's likely to lose.

On the other hand, another referendum would be just as likely to follow an exit vote. Remember what happened with Ireland?

But seriously, despite my firm intention to vote Leave (based solely on the fact that Farage would lose a job as an MEP and Cameron a job as PM), my research on the issue so far (such as it is) seems to indicate that an exit really wouldn't have the effect that most people seem to think it would. In effect, it seems to me, the UK would still be to all intents and purposes within the EU, it just wouldn't have a formal place within it as a member.

Which may, or may not, be a good thing. Who knows?

 

[Agent327]

I've seen many an absurd reasoning concerning the Brexit over the past weeks, but voting No and thinking the UK will still be in the EU kind of takes the cake. No, you will not be in the EU, you will be outside the EU and will still have to deal with the EU: economically, politically, and without having a vote in the EU. A lot of treaties will have to be negotiated, and this without any leverage inside the EU. Personally I don't give hoot about whether the UK is in or out, but thinking there will be no negative consequences is beyond naive.

 

[Samson]

A nicely nuanced visual argument...

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Is that pro or anti EU ?
If I had to guess I'd say it's pro-Brexit because of the socialist association, but I can't imagine the UK becoming less beholden to the USA if they leave the EU.

 

[Kyriakos]

Is that pro or anti EU ?
If I had to guess I'd say it's pro-Brexit because of the socialist association, but I can't imagine the UK becoming less beholden to the USA if they leave the EU.

Ehm, it is very obviously PRO-EU. Boris is anti-EU anyway (at least in his rhetoric). Trump, well, does it even matter?

Basically poster says: vote in the referendum (pro-eu membership) or else you get TrumpBoris.

I think they will vote to exit. Lose-lose either way, though. At least if they vote to exit this will make developments faster in the eu, due to precedent of one country leaving it.

 

[Borachio]

I've seen many an absurd reasoning concerning the Brexit over the past weeks, but voting No and thinking the UK will still be in the EU kind of takes the cake. No, you will not be in the EU, you will be outside the EU and will still have to deal with the EU: economically, politically, and without having a vote in the EU. A lot of treaties will have to be negotiated, and this without any leverage inside the EU. Personally I don't give hoot about whether the UK is in or out, but thinking there will be no negative consequences is beyond naive.

Well, exactly my point.

How much influence do you think having a vote in the EU actually has, btw?

It isn't zero, that's for sure, but it's a lot less than the In crowd would have you think. And isn't a great deal more than being outside the EU but with the same amount of economic clout, which in the end is all that counts.

(I disagree that it "takes the cake", though. To my mind, it takes the biscuit.)

As for absurd reasoning, what is most absurd, imo, is thinking that any rational decision on Brexit is possible either way.

It may even turn out to be utterly impossible for Britain to leave at all. Given any conceivable referendum result.

And if it was deemed appropriate for the UK to leave, a referendum is superfluous in any case.

 

[really]

Is that pro or anti EU ?
If I had to guess I'd say it's pro-Brexit because of the socialist association, but I can't imagine the UK becoming less beholden to the USA if they leave the EU.

It is promoting remain - Boris and Trump are anti eu - vote leave and this is what you will get.

 

[Kyriakos]

^Although some elderly tory voters likely will think this is just a poster about gay love in the continent

/englishelderraisingcane.png

 

[GoodSarmatian]

I assumed it was a EUSSR allusion.

 

[Takhisis]

Hey, putting the French-named Farage is actually an interesting argument.

What if Remain wins in Scotland but loses in England and Wales? Perhaps E&W could exit and Scotland remain… after all, it's what happened with Greenland.

 

[Kyriakos]

Scotland is still chained to the UK

 

[Tahuti]

Scotland is still chained to the UK

Quite ironic how an opponent of the EU laments Scotland being part of the EU, given that a large part of Scottish secessionism stems from Scotland's Pro-EU viewpoints as compared to the rest of Britain.

 

[Kyriakos]

Quite ironic how an opponent of the EU laments Scotland being part of the EU, given that a large part of Scottish secessionism stems from Scotland's Pro-EU viewpoints as compared to the rest of Britain.

Yeah, not so ironic given almost 90% people here were pro-EU before some crazy freaks in the eu ruined us, amirite. It is a freakshow now. If there was a vote tomorrow i would vote leave with zero hesitation, and if i could i'd also include a 'to hell with them' if it did not cancel the vote.

Anyway, i like Scotland, and not seeing how you read that in my post. And given they haven't suffered from the eu, it seems logical for them to have nothing against it, exactly like we had nothing against it in the past. I do doubt, though, that the people in Scotland like the uber-racism in most eu countries

 

[Agent327]

Your basic assumption seems to be that there are now a lot of Greeks who do not want to stay in the EU. Oddly, no voices to that effect have been raised by anyone in Greece during the entire debt crisis - and still aren't. But I guess that's one of those obvious facts you habitually miss.

Well, exactly my point.

How much influence do you think having a vote in the EU actually has, btw?

As you yourself mention, more than zero - as in zero votes. I don't quite see how my undermining your reasoning is 'exactly your point' though. But then, I'm not British, so I may be genetically predisposed to not being able to follow any British pro- or anti-logic.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Yeah, not so ironic given almost 90% people here were pro-EU before some crazy freaks in the eu ruined us, amirite. It is a freakshow now. If there was a vote tomorrow i would vote leave with zero hesitation, and if i could i'd also include a 'to hell with them' if it did not cancel the vote.

EU ruined Greece ?
Greece was already well on its way to its 8th Default, you think Greece would have learnt after the first 7 times.

What If Greece Never Joined The Euro?

This could only lead to an inescapable conclusion as noted by the CFR,

“Even if Greece had remained outside the euro zone, its dependence on euro borrowing would only have increased. A falling drachma would merely have brought the current crisis to a head earlier by accelerating the rise in Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio (think Iceland)….problem is excessive foreign borrowing, a problem with which Greece has struggled since the early 19th century.”

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/what-if-greece-never-joined-the-euro-2010-4?r=US&IR=T

Greece Has Been In Default For 50% Of Its Time As An Independent Country

first developed nation to have defaulted on a payment to the IMF since the founding of the organisation back in 1944.

On the other hand default in and of itself of a sovereign is not all that terrible an outcome. And Greece has in fact been in default on its external financing for fully 50% of its time as an independent country. In fact, it even managed to default before it became an independent country

it has defaulted 5 times since 1800. Which means that this would be the 7th or 8th default overall

1893, they’d simply borrowed too much money again and couldn’t pay it back. 1932 is Great Depression times and again, not unusual and so not, perhaps, specific to Greece. 1860 was really a replay of the 1843 episode, where the British and French occupied Piraeus (the port outside Athens) to ensure payment on the old loan and then that went into default again.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...-time-as-an-independent-country/#28dfa07160e4