Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Arakhor]

Well, given current trends here in Germany I'd assume that if Britain leaves and doesn't end up as the industrial desert full of fascists that some people preach about that topic will once again gain a lot of traction very quickly.

We live in a green and pleasant land, where those feet did tread in ancient times, don't you know? Even if we-enact V for Vendetta, it still won't be in a desert.

 

[Borachio]

I don't disagree that it could be good southern European countries, in those terms. (Although I do doubt it, since they are generally net beneficiaries of EU spending. But I think that's hardly germane to the matter at hand, Mr Hand.)

What it wouldn't be good for, though, is the EU itself. Which would begin to unravel. I suggest.

Precisely my point.

 

[HAND]

I don't disagree that it could be good southern European countries, in those terms. (Although I do doubt it, since they are generally net beneficiaries of EU spending. But I think that's hardly germane to the matter at hand, Mr Hand.)

What it wouldn't be good for, though, is the EU itself. Which would begin to unravel. I suggest.

Precisely my point.

Well, the only way the Eurozone is going to work, is to merge all Eurozone countries debt into a collective Eurozone debt/Eurobonds.. but this simply won't happen with Merkel in power.

I'm not convinced that the UK leaving the EU will have a cascading effect leading to the downfall of the EU.. if anything it could give the EU a real incentive to solve it's massive problems.. perhaps going with the collective Eurozone debt idea as well as others.

 

[innonimatu]

And that is why I consider it a moral obligation to vote to remain in the EU, whatever its problems.

You know, the case has been made that the EU had little to do with workers' rights in the UK.

Our main democratic, employment, trade union and welfare rights in Britain have been won by the sacrifices and struggles of the people — not gifted to us by our rulers here or in the EU.
Most of our employment, trade union, health and safety, equal pay, minimum wage and anti-discrimination rights have been enacted by British legislation. This includes the 1998 UK Working Time Regulations, which improved upon the EU Working Time Directive (28 days paid leave instead of 20 — although statutory bank holidays were not excluded); better rights for farm workers; and longer daily rest for young workers.
The original EU Working Time Directive allows member states to permit workers to opt out of a maximum 48-hour week, as the Blair government did.
In many areas of labour law, Britain is ahead of the EU, including in trade union recognition, collective bargaining rights and maternity leave, where we have the second longest entitlement of any country in Europe — 52 weeks with up to 39 of them paid, compared with 14 in the EU Directive (a rise to 18 has been under discussion since 2010!).
At the same time, EU directives have not closed the gender pay gap in Britain, limited the average working week to 48 hours or raised paid holidays to the average European level — only trade union action and national legislation can be relied upon to do that.
Furthermore, neither EU nor British legislation has prevented the average full-time worker in Britain having the third longest working week in the EU, behind only Greece and Austria. Workers in 21 other EU states have more statutory days off with pay (total leave and public holidays) than in Britain.
The EU has never sought to enact or enforce a statutory minimum wage, the right to strike or the right to join a trade union; nor does it protect workers against lock-outs. Article 153 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU) explicitly forbids EU action in these areas.
The EU done nothing to protect workers in Britain from at least eleven Tory anti-trade union laws since 1979 and it will not defend us against the current Trade Union Bill. Only the strength of our own unions and the election of a different government at Westminster can do that.

I don't pretend to know the specifics of UK's history on this field, but I do believe that what signaled in bold is generally true of any country. And that the moment people start relying on outside powers to "give" them that they're setting themselves up to be screwed.

And on human rights...

Tory hostility has been aimed at the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) enshrined in Britain’s Human Rights Act and its European Court — both of which arise from our membership of the Council of Europe, set up in 1950 and wholly separate from the EU.

While EU membership obliges all member states to adopt the ECHR, this does not prevent governments from flouting both the convention and the UN Declaration of Human Rights. In December 2014, the ECJ blocked a draft treaty affiliating the EU to the convention and its court, not wishing to expose EU institutions and treaties to a different authority — the ECHR European Court — in matters of human and democratic rights.

I'm not at all surprised that the EU bureaucracy itself wants to be exempted from the ECHR. Imagine if people from countries where austerity was demanded by the EU to a degree that national health systems were degraded started suing EU bureaucrats based on Article 2 of the the ECHR? Can't have that!

 

[HAND]

Please, just leave. Please.

I am voting to leave, it's the best outcome for the UK and EU in the medium and longer terms in my opinion.

I hope the EU/Eurozone do solve their deeply entrenched problems in the event of the Brexit.

 

[Kyriakos]

It is highly unlikely that the EU will continue much longer in the case of a Brexit. Not that it will even if no Brexit happens now.

Besides, try to guess what the result of this referendum would be if it was taken in other EU countries now. Eg France (let alone the south ones).

 

[Arakhor]

You know, the case has been made that the EU had little to do with workers' rights in the UK.

"The case has been made". Then again, I'm not really surprised, given how many opt-outs and suchlike the government keeps insisting on using. Besides, that just shows how complicated the arguments are, if one side is complaining that the EU has way too much control over the UK and another side is complaining that the EU doesn't have nearly enough power.

 

[AdrienIer]

Besides, try to guess what the result of this referendum would be if it was taken in other EU countries now. Eg France (let alone the south ones).

Here ? 60/40 for remain I'd say

Edit : actually more like 65/35

 

[Agent327]

I don't pretend to know the specifics of UK's history on this field, but I do believe that what signaled in bold is generally true of any country. And that the moment people start relying on outside powers to "give" them that they're setting themselves up to be screwed.

That's not really the case though, as also follows from your own quote below.

And on human rights...

I'm not at all surprised that the EU bureaucracy itself wants to be exempted from the ECHR. Imagine if people from countries where austerity was demanded by the EU to a degree that national health systems were degraded started suing EU bureaucrats based on Article 2 of the the ECHR? Can't have that!

Your quote mentions governments wanting to opt out obligations, not EU officials. (Which shouldn't surprise anyone, as EU officials only have such rights as are given to them.)

It is highly unlikely that the EU will continue much longer in the case of a Brexit. Not that it will even if no Brexit happens now.

Seriously? As already mentioned, there are no campaigns to exit the EU outside of Britain. But thanks for your umptieth prediction on what will happen to the EU.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yes, Edward, please notice that we aren't accusing you in the singular of beiugn anything, but -as I posted some pages ago- a significant number of the Leave campaign aren't focusing on economic arguments (perhaps because neither Farage nor Johnson has much of a grasp on even the basics) but on ‘keep dem immigrints out’.

Have I Got News For You showed the clip where Boris Johnson was confronted on camera about the £350m a week claim and was told to adm<script id=

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yes, Edward, please notice that we aren't accusing you in the singular of beiugn anything, but -as I posted some pages ago- a significant number of the Leave campaign aren't focusing on economic arguments (perhaps because neither Farage nor Johnson has much of a grasp on even the basics) but on ‘keep dem immigrints out’.

Have I Got News For You showed the clip where Boris Johnson was confronted on camera about the £350m a week claim and was told to admit that it simply wasn't true. Unfortunately, all Boris could do was disagree in that meandering way of his and refused to engage with the question.

Whilst you might not be racist etc., Edward, why are Vote Leave focussing heavily on immigration now? Is it because they think it will be a vote-winner or is it a less wholesome reason? How will they handle illegal immigration? People risking their lives to walk 26 miles down the Channel Tunnel all night are not going to be put off by Eurosceptics piously claiming that border security is obtainable if only we leave the EU.

I am not in charge of the Leave campaign, and asking me to explain why they are making
the case that they are; is a deflection from making the case to Remain.

Nevertheless I shall give you my best guess.


I think many of them lack the intellectual ability to make the core
Leave argument which is ultimately for democratic self determination.

Mahatma Gandhi (and the US founding fathers. Mau Mau and Irish etc)
did not have that problem.

And nobody accused Gandhi or his supporters of being racist/xenophobic.


But then what we would one expect from people educated at places like Eton?
It tells them they're privileged, advocates being pushy for their entitlements.


The argument about the UK's net contribution is in my opinion very much secondary.
There are several different ways of calculating it that result in different results.

The problem is that the UK is running an enormous trade deficit and an enormous
public expenditure deficit which means we are really borrowing money from China etc
to fund the net contribution to the EU, and 0.7% of GNP going on foreign aid.

When the economy turns down again, we will have two problems:
(a) the beneficiaries of over generous aid will take umbrage when it is cut; and
(b) paying the Chinese etc.

But Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, and Michael Gove all lack the intellectual rigour
to understand and make this point. They (and most of the Remain supporters)
seem to assume that because the UK has largely by luck, got away with running
these deficits for so long, it can continue to do so avoiding a reckoning, indefinitely.


Seriously the trick of living on the "never never" does not work for long and
supporting it by hundreds of billions in quantitative easing will stop working
when your creditors demand to be paid in foreign currency.

 

[Takhisis]

Well, the UK has gotten away with running these large deficits by financial man&#339;uvres, including being the single largest financial haven in the world (if including Crown colonies and dependencies dotted here and there around the globe) and having Saudi Arabia buy colossal amounts of Western foreign debt with their own petrodollars (finally disclosed earlier this week!). Now China's in on buying the West's bonds. At some point, the merry-go-round of eternal expansion stops, when there is nowhere left to expand to. What would these bloody idiots do then?

 

[Arakhor]

I am not in charge of the Leave campaign, and asking me to explain why they are making the case that they are; is a deflection from making the case to Remain.

Well, thank you for answering, but just as you are not in charge of Vote Leave, I'm not in charge in Vote Remain. I've given you my reasons and that should be enough.

 

[Tani Coyote]

I'm just pondering what result this will have in Scotland.

It sounded like economic uncertainty was a major factor in keeping Scotland inside the United Kingdom. If Britain exits the European Union, it basically defeats the whole purpose of Scotland remaining within the Union.

Most peculiarly, though, what I found on the subject is it sounds like Brexit would only marginally increase support for Scottish independence. I guess the Scottish public prefer dealing with Britain's issues rather than what might come from seceding from the UK to rejoin the EU?

 

[EnglishEdward]

I'm just pondering what result this will have in Scotland.

It sounded like economic uncertainty was a major factor in keeping Scotland inside the United Kingdom.
If Britain exits the European Union, it basically defeats the whole purpose of Scotland remaining within the Union.

I understand the logic, and it is true to a point, but not the whole purpose.

Most peculiarly, though, what I found on the subject is it sounds like Brexit would only marginally increase support for Scottish independence. I guess the Scottish public prefer dealing with Britain's issues rather than what might come from seceding from the UK to rejoin the EU?

Your guess may well be correct. The Scots have long experience in successfully dealing
with us English, we live on the same Island and speak nearly the same language.



There are quite a number of routes as below.

(1) If England votes to leave, but the rest of the UK, that is
Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales vote to remain in the EU,
then this could be achieved by England voting to leave the UK in
which case the rest of the UK would by default remain in the EU.

(2) The Scots might leave the EU as part of the UK and then have another
independence vote. If this was successful, they might apply to join the
EU or become a sort of EU associate such as Norway, Turkey and Switzerland.


There are also a number of sub-arguments and it is difficult to determine
the significance of them, and their overall result on Scottish voters.


(A) North Sea Oil and Gas.

This is currently legally British. The Scots in general want it to be Scottish oil,
although the Orkney and Shetlander islanders (to which it is nearest) being of largely
Viking (Norwegian) descent see themselves as Islanders first, British second and
Scottish third. However the EU federalists covet the reserves as EU oil.

The EU federalists would likely ask the Scots to make concessions on oil on applying to
re-join the EU that would defeat a key point of Scottish Independence from England.
In this respect, it is worth remembering that the key reason that Norway did not join
the European Community was because it wished to retain ownership of its oil.


(B) Currency.

The Scottish nationalists originally said they would use the Euro but backtracked
when they saw what was happening with the, largely German led, bankers and Greece.

They proposed to use the pound, but it is unclear how they could, as an independent
country, expect to benefit from quantitative easing. That would probably have resulted
in all the Scottish banks opting to register as UK banks. Frankly I think they should
have gone for their own currency, the Scottish 'groat' or similar but the SNP bottled.


(C) Delegated Government, Autonomy and Self Determination.

The Scots were content to be junior partners to England after James I (of England)
(James VI of Scotland) took over England upon the death of the childless Elizabeth 1.
Some of them were annoyed when the Parliaments were merged but they were
content with being a junior partner in running a global empire and North Britain addresses.

But there is currently a problem in that Britain can not currently delegate authority
or grant autonomy in matters to Scotland that EU treaty and law do not permit.
The UK parliament has in many respects become just a middle body between the
Scots and the EU, and the Scots people see little value in powerless middle people.

I therefore take the view that membership of the EU undermines UK integrity.
An independent UK would, on recovering authority currently ceded to the EU,
be better able to concentrate on the big things, delegating more authority
to Scotland as a whole and to English county and town government.

 

[Arakhor]

But there is currently a problem in that Britain can not currently delegate authority or grant autonomy in matters to Scotland that EU treaty and law do not permit.

Would you care to provide some examples?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Would you care to provide some examples?

1. The ability to limit wealth outsiders from pricing local Scots out of the
housing market where they were born by buying up local homes as their
second or third homes.

2. The ability to deal with both areas of poor housing and employment by forming
local companies that will employ local people to renovate local property.

 

[Kyriakos]

Scotland might be better in a sort of loose trade-other union with Norway, given they have some common history and i heard they used the line where Scotland is something of another norse country in a way.

Anyway, if they leave the UK they should create their own currency.

 

[Arakhor]

How are either of those blocked by EU regulations, Edward?

 

[Mega Tsunami]

The Polls have gone over to the Brexiteers in the last week or so.

This morning a YouGov poll for ITV’s Good Morning Britain will put Leave in front on 45% and Remain on 41%, according to overnight reports.
Sunday’s Observer/Opinium poll also registered a nosing-ahead for the Brexit camp, with Leave on 43% and Remain on 40%:
The poll suggests the remain camp has lost four percentage points in the last two weeks, during which Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have relentlessly campaigned on the theme of immigration.

Here is an interesting report from the BBC. I don’t know if it would be ‘defying the will of the electorate’ but I, for one, would be happy if this was the outcome of a Leave vote. In fact this makes me more determined to vote Leave. (I admit, in the small hours of the morning, sometimes wondering if I was doing the right thing).

Pro-Remain MPs are considering using their Commons majority to keep Britain inside the EU single market if there is a vote for Brexit, the BBC has learned.
The MPs fear a post-Brexit government might negotiate a limited free trade deal with the EU, which they say would damage the UK's economy.
There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147.
A Vote Leave campaign spokesman said MPs will not be able to "defy the will of the electorate" on key issues.
The single market guarantees the free movement of goods, people, services and capital.
The BBC has learned pro-Remain MPs would use their voting power in the House of Commons to protect what they see as the economic benefits of a single market, which gives the UK access to 500 million consumers.
Staying inside the single market would mean Britain would have to keep its borders open to EU workers and continue paying into EU coffers.
<snip>
The advantages of EEA membership for non-EU countries - known by some as the "Norway model" - include access to the single market without having to agree agriculture or fishing quotas, to cooperate on justice or foreign affairs, or be a member of the eurozone or the Schengen border-free arrangement.
The disadvantages include having to make a contribution to the EU budget, accepting the free movement of people, and having little ability to influence EU rules.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457120

I mean, it is not as if the EU listens to us anyway &#8211; witness the Euro and Schengen arrangement.
Also, according to Daniel Hannan (English eurosceptic MEP):

"Since majority voting was introduced in the late Eighties, the UK has voted against an EU legislative proposal 70 times &#8212; and lost 70 times. No other country is so regularly isolated and outvoted.
This gives the lie to the Remain argument that being in the EU gives Britain influence. In fact, despite being the second largest financial contributor, we have very little influence.
As one Council official frankly admitted: ‘Even the best idea can die if it’s presented by the UK.’
This isn’t because of some Eurovision Song Contest style prejudice against us. Britain finds herself isolated in the EU, not because of any conspiracy against her, but because she fundamentally differs from the others politically and economically.
Our economic outlook is different and we do not accept the EU’s objective of political union.
There being no sign that the British people are ready to become patriotic citizens of Europe, that isolation will continue. Britain will carry on being outvoted and ignored."