Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[EnglishEdward]

why the German "Mittelstand" never fears British venture capitalism — can't plan ahead worth a damn.)

British venture capitalism is very much about individuals selfishly
making money for themselves often involving transferring risk to others.

German Mittelstand is about many more things and less short term.

Not sure what this has got to do with Brexit.

 

[bathsheba666]

Peak crisis will more probably occur 6-12 months after article 50 is exercised, at which point exit is inevitable - uk becomes a supplicant in all trade negotiations - and businesses will then start in earnest to cancel or reduce their future investments in the UK.

Unless these decisions are broadcast - and why would they be if businesses want to retain some public goodwill? - the full scope of the loss of gdp could only be guessed at. Given the current efforts to not frighten the horses further.

'Has not fallen' does not mean 'is not falling'.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Peak crisis will more probably occur 6-12 months after article 50 is exercised, at which point exit is inevitable - uk becomes a supplicant in all trade negotiations - and businesses will then start in earnest to cancel or reduce their future investments in the UK.

Unless these decisions are broadcast - and why would they be if businesses want to retain some public goodwill? - the full scope of the loss of gdp could only be guessed at. Given the current efforts to not frighten the horses further.

'Has not fallen' does not mean 'is not falling'.

I think that international businesses will respond much faster than that.

Financial businesses in 1 day to 3 months and manufacturing in 2 to 8 months.

The key question is the nature of the investment drop? Much so called investment
consists of buying existing assets (companies, government debt, land, developed
property, shares); other investment is in (people, plant and research) creating jobs.

Yes, UK GDP will certainly take a hit, the UK government will likely find it can not
borrow for next to nothing. But current UK trading account and UK government
deficits make this inevitable irrespective of Brexit or not. My view is that the
system is inherently unstable and that voting Remain would only have delayed it

 

[Verbose]

British venture capitalism is very much about individuals selfishly
making money for themselves often involving transferring risk to others.

German Mittelstand is about many more things and less short term.

Not sure what this has got to do with Brexit.

Well, there is no Brexit as of yet. It's still to come. To the extent that economies these days operate on the returns of quarterly balance sheets, it's all still "far" in the future.

What seems actually positive is that the British consumers are keeping faith in it all ending well, since they so far haven't cut back in spending in expectation of rough patches down the road. There seems to be a mixed back regarding not-so-short-term investments?

 

[bathsheba666]

I think that international businesses will respond much faster than that.

Financial businesses in 1 day to 3 months and manufacturing in 2 to 8 months.

The key question is the nature of the investment drop? Much so called investment
consists of buying existing assets (companies, government debt, land, developed
property, shares); other investment is in (people, plant and research) creating jobs.

Yes, UK GDP will certainly take a hit, the UK government will likely find it can not
borrow for next to nothing. But current UK trading account and UK government
deficits make this inevitable irrespective of Brexit or not. My view is that the
system is inherently unstable and that voting Remain would only have delayed it

So you agree that Brexit will make us poorer.

Being poorer will accelerate the decision to not lend to us.

Seems an all round sensible strategy.

Go sovereignty, w00t.

 

[JohannaK]

So, EnglishEdward had us all fooled. Turns out he is a revolutionary, then I say you did a damn good job of it.

 

[innonimatu]

Peak crisis will more probably occur 6-12 months after article 50 is exercised

My guess is that the EU won't even exist anymore 12 months after article 50 is invoked. If it has to be invoked at all. Other states will move to leave, and it'll happen suddenly: the "unthinkable" will become "obvious" and "necessary". Take notice, no politicians dares defend the EU by trying to associate it with anything good anymore. Not make promises of prosperity for the future: it'd be too obvious a lie. The EU is now carried only on fear of change. The posts here are evidence of that: leaving the EU will lead to economic doom because... trade! As if countries outside the EU were unable to trade! That fear gets old and tired, as it is shown to be empty.

Many a hypocrite politician will save its career that way. The EU has failed miserably in its promises of a better standard of living for europeans, in its projections of "economic growth", in everything in fact. And people are taking notice, talking about it - against the barrage of pro-EU (in the continent) mass media - and electing parties with screw-the-EU programmes. Which forces an adjustment of the attitudes of all the other opportunist politicians. Politics runs on opportunism. It's be the USSR, 1990 again: the ones who want to save their careers will hold a summit to proclaim the empire dissolved - and their own offices secure! In France that disgusting creature Sarkozy tries to outdo the FN with inflamed rhetoric, and the socialists rally around a supposeda anti-EU "leftist": they smell where things are going. In Italy the local Blair is burning though the last months of his government, victim of his political gamble to hold a referendum before things got even worse (too late). In central europe governments are effectively operating outside the EU already.

The EU is out of carrots and its only sticks (the "common market" and the ECB) are nor really the EU's to wield when the big countries move to leave.

'Has not fallen' does not mean 'is not falling'.

Dire predictions of doom have failed, postpone date. Religious thinking.

And for the record, its not doom I'm prediction when I tell you that the EU is in its terminal phase. It's liberation.

 

[Arakhor]

Dire predictions of doom have failed, postpone date. Religious thinking.

And for the record, its not doom I'm prediction when I tell you that the EU is in its terminal phase. It's liberation.

Well, of course. Your opponents are crazy fanatics but you are a clear-thinking prophet.

 

[Verbose]

My guess is that the EU won't even exist anymore 12 months after article 50 is invoked.

[...]

Dire predictions of doom have failed, postpone date. Religious thinking.

And for the record, its not doom I'm prediction when I tell you that the EU is in its terminal phase. It's liberation.

Doom for whom? Or is this Salvation... to what, pray?

 

[FriendlyFire]

My guess is that the EU won't even exist anymore 12 months after article 50 is invoked. If it has to be invoked at all. Other states will move to leave, and it'll happen suddenly: the "unthinkable" will become "obvious" and "necessary". Take notice, no politicians dares defend the EU by trying to associate it with anything good anymore. Not make promises of prosperity for the future: it'd be too obvious a lie. The EU is now carried only on fear of change. The posts here are evidence of that: leaving the EU will lead to economic doom because... trade! As if countries outside the EU were unable to trade! That fear gets old and tired, as it is shown to be empty.

Many a hypocrite politician will save its career that way. The EU has failed miserably in its promises of a better standard of living for europeans, in its projections of "economic growth", in everything in fact. And people are taking notice, talking about it - against the barrage of pro-EU (in the continent) mass media - and electing parties with screw-the-EU programmes. Which forces an adjustment of the attitudes of all the other opportunist politicians. Politics runs on opportunism. It's be the USSR, 1990 again: the ones who want to save their careers will hold a summit to proclaim the empire dissolved - and their own offices secure! In France that disgusting creature Sarkozy tries to outdo the FN with inflamed rhetoric, and the socialists rally around a supposeda anti-EU "leftist": they smell where things are going. In Italy the local Blair is burning though the last months of his government, victim of his political gamble to hold a referendum before things got even worse (too late). In central europe governments are effectively operating outside the EU already.

The EU is out of carrots and its only sticks (the "common market" and the ECB) are nor really the EU's to wield when the big countries move to leave.



Dire predictions of doom have failed, postpone date. Religious thinking.

And for the record, its not doom I'm prediction when I tell you that the EU is in its terminal phase. It's liberation.

If UK is going to prosper on the strength of its current economic record, why not Germany or France the two other economic powerhouses of the EU ? The benefactor states such as Poland, Baltics and Balkans are set to lose and lose big given that EU monies flows to them.

Probably only German, driven by its war guilt will continue to invest in the poorer northern Ayran Nordic neighbors as bulwarks to Russia. And follow the German model of stable economy as opposed to the south economic running large deficit policies

Two non compatible economic models, only lasted so long as the major economic powers continue to subsidize the other. Of course how much blame is the EU fault and how much is the member states is probably going to be crystal clear if the EU collapses.

I can see German doing its tradition economic stimulus of rearming itself setting off a new arms race, though this would probably help Europe in the short term.

 

[EnglishEdward]

So you agree that Brexit will make us poorer.

Not at all. Change has a cost and there will no doubt be a short term hit to UK GDP
at some stage. But staying in a non functioning EU would not be without its costs.

Being poorer will accelerate the decision to not lend to us.

Credit to consume things we do not need and can not pay for us is a trap.
This applies as much to trade deficits & budget deficits as to credit cards.

Seems an all round sensible strategy.

Go sovereignty, w00t.

Yes, without self determination - we are truly dependent upon others' whims.

So, EnglishEdward had us all fooled. Turns out he is a revolutionary, then I say you did a damn good job of it.

The UK has been running a massive foreign trade deficit for 40 years.
Perceiving that to be unsustainable is simply old fashioned common sense.

Unfortunately there are still many who think that the drastic correction that
is coming can be delayed, even avoided, by maintaining confidence and by
surrendering law, self determination and democracy to not rock the boat.

The Canadian governor of the Bank of England is currently brilliantly fighting
a magnificent last ditch stand by use of impeccable rhetoric, ultra-low interest
rates and quantitative easing, but Canute knew he could not stop the tide.

 

[Yeekim]

Thread sorely needs this:
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-...minister-brexit-eu-jonathan-lynn-sir-humphrey

An office. There is a knock on the door.

Sir Humphrey Come in.

Minister I’m told I can find the new permanent secretary of the new Brexit ministry in here.

Sir Humphrey Indeed you can. Sir Humphrey Appleby at your service.

Too bad sir Antony Jay has left us. May that genius rest in peace.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Thread sorely needs this:
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-...minister-brexit-eu-jonathan-lynn-sir-humphrey

Too bad sir Antony Jay has left us. May that genius rest in peace.

Thank you Yeekim. I enjoyed reading that.

The Remainers complain that the Leavers did not know what they were voting for.
But I really wonder how many of the 48% Remainers knew they were voting for:

Minister So who really runs Europe?

Sir Humphrey Another interesting question. Well done, Minister! The European Union is run on an intricate and sophisticated system based on an hierarchical structure of interlocking and overlapping jurisdictions designed to separate the powers whilst reinforcing the authority of the departments, institutions and agencies who collectively and separately control and supervise the diverse activities of the Union and its associated organisations. So Europe is not run by the president of the European Council or the Council of the European Union but by the president of the European Commission, who is akin to prime minister of Europe because he is elected for five years and heads a cabinet government whereas the president of the Council, on the other hand, is not elected but appointed, and presides over the meetings of the Council, which is not the cabinet.

Minister Who are the members of the European Council?

Sir Humphrey The European Council’s membership consists of the heads of member states while the Council of the European Union, on the other hand – which is often still referred to as the Council of Ministers – is the real voice of EU member governments, adopting EU laws and coordinating EU policies. Sometimes it is just called “the Council” in the interests of clarity. And they’re not even trying to be funny.

Minister It’s called the Council.

Sir Humphrey Yes – but the Council of the European Union should not be confused with the European Council nor with the Council of Europe – nor the Council of Ministers, which is also sometimes just called “the Council”, although it is not the same Council as the other Council and is in fact not an EU body at all.

 

[bathsheba666]

Yes, without self determination - we are truly dependent upon others' whims.

And you think that by being isolated we will no longer be dependent on others whims..

How sweet.

 

[Arakhor]

The Remainers complain that the Leavers did not know what they were voting for. But I really wonder how many of the 48% Remainers knew they were voting for:

How many of the 52% knew what they were voting against? Now of course that ghastly man Farage is preening himself by playing to the Trump crowds, which just shows his true worth, as if it wasn't already apparent.

 

[Cheetah]

Damn. I wish there was more Yes, Minister...

Having three different European bodies referred to as councils is a bit silly. I wish they'd change the names. They probably will eventually.

The explanation is rather Humphreyic though. It can be made much easier:

Europe -- meaning the European Union -- is run by the sovereign governments of the member states, and the people of the European Union.

The European Council is really just the formal meeting ground for the heads of states/governments of the member states. Appoints the President of the Commission.

The Council of the European Union acts like the legislative "upper house" of the EU system, and consists of one minister from each member state (which minister depends on the topics at hand).

The European Parliament is the legislative "lower house" of the EU system. Members are elected by the people of the European Union in normal, free and open elections. Approves the European Commission and may dissolve it. Has a President of the European Parliament, which functions as parliament's speaker.

The European Commission is the executive branch. After each EU Parliament election the European Council nominate the President of the European Commission (same way as the Queen appointing the Prime Minister in the UK) which the Parliament then ratifies. An approved Commissioner, together with the European Council, then selects his cabinet (one member from each member state) and has to get them approved by the Parliament.

Not especially contrived or conspiratorial, is it?

Also, you did notice this part, I take it:

Sir Humphrey What did you want?

Minister Sovereignty.

Sir Humphrey We had that already. What else?

Minister Control of our borders.

Sir Humphrey We had that too. Anything else?

 

[Arakhor]

The adjective is conspiratorial, but it's a pretty unusual word.

 

[EnglishEdward]

And you think that by being isolated we will no longer be dependent on others whims..

How sweet.

By being out of the EU, the UK will be better able to make its own decisions.

The UK will therefore be less dependent upon foreigners whims
(namely the EU Commission).

How many of the 52% knew what they were voting against?


I note that you have not answered my question, but merely posed your own
question. I conclude that you do not know why people were voting Remain.

But replying to your counter question, I think that very nearly 100% knew
that voting Leave was about not Remaining in the European Union;
and the UK has been in the EU long enough for them to know what it is.

Now of course that ghastly man Farage is preening himself by playing to the Trump crowds, which just shows his true worth, as if it wasn't already apparent.

I am not a fan of either Nigel Farage or Donald Trump.

If the Remainers voted Remain because they did not like Nigel Farage,
then they were fools for allowing personal perceptions of one person
to override consideration of the issues of UK membership of the EU.

 

[JohannaK]

I find baffling that states complain about loss of sovereignty to the EU when it is the states who run the EU.

 

[Cheetah]

The adjective is conspiratorial, but it's a pretty unusual word.

Thank you. I was to lazy to look up the correct word.