Manfred Belheim
Moaner Lisa
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I don't think it has. The invective from Leave voters may well revolve around nothing else, but that doesn't mean the actual process is about that at all, thankfully.
Is Britain about to leave the EU?
- Thread starter Mega Tsunami
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I don't think it has. The invective from Leave voters may well revolve around nothing else, but that doesn't mean the actual process is about that at all, thankfully.
I hope that will stay true.
To discuss other news, what exactly did the PM expect to achieve in India? She wants to reduce immigration by two-thirds (good luck with that one), yet she still went to India knowing full well that an Indian-EU deal had foundered because India wants great immigration ability for its people.
To discuss other news, what exactly did the PM expect to achieve in India? She wants to reduce immigration by two-thirds (good luck with that one), yet she still went to India knowing full well that an Indian-EU deal had foundered because India wants great immigration ability for its people.
Lillefix
I'm serious. You can.
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I'm quite Eurofile/EUfile, but with Brexit and Trump I can see the end of the EU. I can picture Le Pen and Five star win in France and Italy. They might arrange votes like Brexit and in that case they will vote leave.
The best way to avoid it in my opinion is fast and decisive against Africans and Middle Eastern immigrants. There are many things they should improve, but the immigrant problem is the most immediate and concrete. People need to see concrete action.
The best way to avoid it in my opinion is fast and decisive against Africans and Middle Eastern immigrants. There are many things they should improve, but the immigrant problem is the most immediate and concrete. People need to see concrete action.
What sort of fast and decisive action do you propose?
Your cure might be worse than your perceived problem.
Punishing the UK might be an easier way to keep the EU together.
I think a good action from the Eu would now finally allow for minor inflation in the euro (given pound and dollar go down anyway) to erase debt.
You can be sure it won't happen, cause the leaders there don't do things which will actually help in the first place. I hope a new union will be created, regional ones that is, eg the north can have the reich since there is such mindset there
You can be sure it won't happen, cause the leaders there don't do things which will actually help in the first place. I hope a new union will be created, regional ones that is, eg the north can have the reich since there is such mindset there
EnglishEdward
Deity
I can only guess.
Possibilities include:
(a) Preempting Boris Johnson from going and offending one billion Indians.
(b) Preempting Liam Fox going and signing a disastrous deal.
(c) Recovering UK's reputation from the David Miliband visit to where he tried to use pitiful sum of UK foreign aid as political instrument.
(d) Raise a flag to the EU that the UK was serious that it would deal with the rest of the world.
(e) Respond to the services lobby that thinks it can make billions of pounds out of financial servces (e.g. derivatives fraud) in India.
(f) Respond to the arms industry that thinks it can make hundreds of millions selling weapons to India.
(g) Enjoy a good curry.
I doubt that she has ever had any expectation that India will help solve her immigration problem.
If either of the first two are true, maybe she should sack those two incompetents from the Cabinet and get people who can actually do their jobs. If (d) is true, then perhaps she should have actually brought something to India that they would be prepared to accept.
The others seem fairly reasonable though.
The others seem fairly reasonable though.
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
I think a good action from the Eu would now finally allow for minor inflation in the euro (given pound and dollar go down anyway) to erase debt.
You can be sure it won't happen, cause the leaders there don't do things which will actually help in the first place. I hope a new union will be created, regional ones that is, eg the north can have the reich since there is such mindset there
The EU has already announced QE based on each countries GDP
If you dont like the EU rules, The southern EU countries with there borrowing and debt based economy can form their own union. We'll call it the "No Pay Debt" Union
EnglishEdward
Deity
I guess that Theresa May thinks that it is safer to have Boris Johnson and Liam Fox in her Cabinet,
than outside where they can try to upstage her like Nigel Farage has done with meeting Donald Trump.
They have appeared to have missed the obvious retort to the press question as to whether Nigel Farage
is a go between: "He is not a MP, he is an MEP and therefore you should ask Jean-Claude Juncker".
It is difficult for me to see what Theresa May has to offer on trade with India bearing in mind that we have
already offered and they have already taken our databases (ICT outsourcing) and steel industry (Tata).
And selling off residence rights in the UK at £30 K per student, what allowing foreign students indefinite right to remain
in the UK after graduation would in many cases mean, is unlikely to endear herself to her conservative party membership.
So best to keep it to smiles and hand shakes.
It is only once we have left the EU or any exit framework terms are clear, there can be meaninful UK-India negotiations.
India also has expertise in building nuclear reactors; they have a lot of thorium, keep China aware they are not the only player.
One might ask what the Indian government would want.
If I'd been Narendra Modi, I'd have asked for the British Indian Ocean Territory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Indian_Ocean_Territory
EnglishEdward
Deity
The issue is evicting the USA.
Silurian
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A memo by the professional services firm Deloitte to the Cabinet Office shows that things are not going well with the planing for brexit.
".....
THE POLITICAL DOMAIN
The Prime Minister's over-riding objective has been to keep her party from repeating its history of splitting 4 times in the past 200 years over global trade - each time being out of power for 15-30 years. The public stance of Government is orientated primarily to its own supporters, with industry in particular barely being on the radarscreen - yet.
The Government's appeal to the Supreme Court has to be seen in this light - it is about avoiding any more public debate than necessary because it will expose splits within the predominantly "remain" Conservative MPs and intensify the pressure from predominantly "leave" constituency parties. A General Election is only a last resort for 3 reasons - boundary changes (that favour the Conservatives) will not be effective until 2019; the Fixed Term Parliaments Act obstructs Prime Ministerial freedom to call an election at will; and it may suit major decision makers to slowly shift away from more difficult aspects of Brexit on the grounds that Parliament has forced them to do so.
The divisions within the Cabinet are between the 3 Brexiteers on one side and Philip Hammond/Greg Clark on the other side. The Prime Minister is rapidly acquiring the reputation of drawing in decisions and details to settle matters herself - which is unlikely to be sustainable. Overall, it appears best to judge who is winning the debate by assuming that the noisiest individuals have lost the intra-Government debate and are stirring up external supporters.
....etc"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3937382/TEXT-Britains-leaked-Brexit-memo.html
".....
THE POLITICAL DOMAIN
The Prime Minister's over-riding objective has been to keep her party from repeating its history of splitting 4 times in the past 200 years over global trade - each time being out of power for 15-30 years. The public stance of Government is orientated primarily to its own supporters, with industry in particular barely being on the radarscreen - yet.
The Government's appeal to the Supreme Court has to be seen in this light - it is about avoiding any more public debate than necessary because it will expose splits within the predominantly "remain" Conservative MPs and intensify the pressure from predominantly "leave" constituency parties. A General Election is only a last resort for 3 reasons - boundary changes (that favour the Conservatives) will not be effective until 2019; the Fixed Term Parliaments Act obstructs Prime Ministerial freedom to call an election at will; and it may suit major decision makers to slowly shift away from more difficult aspects of Brexit on the grounds that Parliament has forced them to do so.
The divisions within the Cabinet are between the 3 Brexiteers on one side and Philip Hammond/Greg Clark on the other side. The Prime Minister is rapidly acquiring the reputation of drawing in decisions and details to settle matters herself - which is unlikely to be sustainable. Overall, it appears best to judge who is winning the debate by assuming that the noisiest individuals have lost the intra-Government debate and are stirring up external supporters.
....etc"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-3937382/TEXT-Britains-leaked-Brexit-memo.html
EnglishEdward
Deity
Thank you Silurian:
I read from that report:
that the ordinary old civil service of (which I was a small part prior to my retirement) is getting on and doing its job,
but it is the conservative ministers who can not prioritise even relying on management consultants to summarise.
I read from that report:
that the ordinary old civil service of (which I was a small part prior to my retirement) is getting on and doing its job,
but it is the conservative ministers who can not prioritise even relying on management consultants to summarise.
Silurian
Deity
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I agree Edward.
But they are most likely using management consultants because of the staff cuts over the last few years.
The danger with the individual departments undertaking a bottom up approach to Brexit will be that they will end up fighting each other rather than the best deal for the country as a whole.
But they are most likely using management consultants because of the staff cuts over the last few years.
The danger with the individual departments undertaking a bottom up approach to Brexit will be that they will end up fighting each other rather than the best deal for the country as a whole.
EnglishEdward
Deity
The fighting seems to be between government ministers rather than between the working level civil servants.
Of course that does not preclude fighting or turf wars between rival management consultants and I saw much
of those in my time. I fear that someone has brought them in at one thousand pounds or more a day which
merely provides motivation for them to over expand and draw out the exit process to maximise their revenues.
Well, of course. That's management all over. Fire staff to "cut costs" and then spent ridiculous amounts on consultants to plug the gap they stupidly created in the first place.
Silurian
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EU budget was €145 bn in 2015. Approx £125bn today.
6% went on staff, admin and buildings, less 1% which was spent on translation, so about £6.25 bn a year.
42500 staff noted below. Not sure if this includes EU agencies.
The UK is about 12.7% of the EU population so the UK would need to employ about 5400 staff to do their work at a cost of £794m a year.
(£15m a week from the £350m a week saving claimed for leaving the EU)
So the 10000 to 30000 extra staff to work on Brexit sounds like a reasonable range considering that the new UK staff will be trying change everything in a few years often in areas with lack of expertise because they were undertaken by the EU.
From Europa
"The EU spends around 6% of its annual budget on staff, administration and maintenance of its buildings.
Staff
The European Commission is divided into departments known as Directorates General (DGs), roughly equivalent to ministries. Each covers a specific policy area or service such as trade or environment, and is headed by a Director-General who reports to a Commissioner. Around 33 000 people are employed by the European Commission.
In the European Parliament, around 6 000 people work in the general secretariat and in the political groups. They are joined by Members of Parliament and their staff. In the Council of the European Union, around 3 500 people work in the general secretariat."
https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/figures/administration_en
6% went on staff, admin and buildings, less 1% which was spent on translation, so about £6.25 bn a year.
42500 staff noted below. Not sure if this includes EU agencies.
The UK is about 12.7% of the EU population so the UK would need to employ about 5400 staff to do their work at a cost of £794m a year.
(£15m a week from the £350m a week saving claimed for leaving the EU)
So the 10000 to 30000 extra staff to work on Brexit sounds like a reasonable range considering that the new UK staff will be trying change everything in a few years often in areas with lack of expertise because they were undertaken by the EU.
From Europa
"The EU spends around 6% of its annual budget on staff, administration and maintenance of its buildings.
Staff
The European Commission is divided into departments known as Directorates General (DGs), roughly equivalent to ministries. Each covers a specific policy area or service such as trade or environment, and is headed by a Director-General who reports to a Commissioner. Around 33 000 people are employed by the European Commission.
In the European Parliament, around 6 000 people work in the general secretariat and in the political groups. They are joined by Members of Parliament and their staff. In the Council of the European Union, around 3 500 people work in the general secretariat."
https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/figures/administration_en
Now BJ says that the UK will probably leave the European customs union.
An excerpt:
If I'd written this as a comedy script when that idiot Cameron was first elected they would have said it was surreal humour and I should please get serious.
An excerpt:
Pressed repeatedly on whether Johnson was right to say the UK would probably leave the customs union, May’s official spokeswoman would only say the foreign secretary was correct that no decision had yet been made. She said Johnson had been engaging with the UK’s partners in Europe by giving an interview to the Czech media outlet.
The foreign secretary, a leading member of the campaign to leave the EU, also continued his attempts to play down concerns about the victory of Donald Trump in the US election.
“There is every reason to be positive. Donald Trump is a dealmaker, he is a guy who believes firmly in values that I believe in too – freedom and democracy. As far as I understand he is in many aspects a liberal guy from New York,” he said.
The foreign secretary, a leading member of the campaign to leave the EU, also continued his attempts to play down concerns about the victory of Donald Trump in the US election.
“There is every reason to be positive. Donald Trump is a dealmaker, he is a guy who believes firmly in values that I believe in too – freedom and democracy. As far as I understand he is in many aspects a liberal guy from New York,” he said.
If I'd written this as a comedy script when that idiot Cameron was first elected they would have said it was surreal humour and I should please get serious.
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