Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Thorgalaeg]

IMO Germany didnt start two world wars but only one. The first one, since WW2 was indeed the prolongation of WW1. Now it is a whole new country and the world is a whole new world very far away from the 19th-century world which propicied the conflict. At leat it has been in the last decades. Seeing late developments i am not sure about the future anymore.

 

[JohannaK]

German wad not the first to mobilise, nor the first to declare war, nor the first to fire a shot, nor a direct party to the crisis that ignited the war. Much has been made of the 'blank check' to Austria-Hungary, but it is only a cog of so many that had to align for WW1 to happen. To call that decisive is to ignore everything else and, if we should blame someone, let us blame Austrian Chief of Staff Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, who petitioned to the Emperor to go to war with Serbia dozens of times in the year before the war amd tirelessly worked to that end.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Not to mention that nobody really tried to deescalate. Britain was in full arrogant imperialist mode and made it clear that they didn't take Germany seriously and France was just itching for a rematch to make up for 1870.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

AFAIK Germany was the first to declare war on Russia turning a local conflict into a world war. And Austria dared to attack Serbia because they had full german support to do so.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Yeah, but Russia was mobilising.
If you draw a gun and I punch you before you can shoot, did I start the fight ?
And alliances don't mean automatic chain DOW. Germany had a choice to stay out of the conflict, but so did France and the Britain, and they didn't. There more steps on the road to a world war than "Germany backed Austria" or "Germany attacked Russia".

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Sure but those were pretty big steps.

 

[Kyriakos]

Yeah, but Russia was mobilising.
If you draw a gun and I punch you before you can shoot, did I start the fight ?
And alliances don't mean automatic chain DOW. Germany had a choice to stay out of the conflict, but so did France and the Britain, and they didn't. There more steps on the road to a world war than "Germany backed Austria" or "Germany attacked Russia".

Russia was mobilizing since Austria already had sent an impossible ultimatum to Serbia, so war seemed imminent, no? And they also knew what Germany would be doing. Let alone that Germany could stay neutral if it wanted to, like it asked... Russia to be?

Anyway, Germany declared war on Russia on the first of August (1914). It is the official start of ww1.

 

[Arakhor]

I know the old line about being doomed to repeat history, but could we talk about this century's politics?

 

[really]

I know the old line about being doomed to repeat history, but could we talk about this century's politics?

I was just about to bring up the famine.

 

[Arakhor]

And then there's the scandal about King George not allowing Queen Catherine to his coronation!

 

[Takhisis]

I had hoped for more from Corbyn in the UK, I must say. He's smart, and he truly has different ideas (different from the blairite Labour), but he has become afraid of pushing them.

I think he was doomed from the start. Labour is split between a remainder of ‘Old’ i.e. pre-Blair Labour and a lot of Tory-lites. And the latter group are better organised and connected, sadly.

I was just about to bring up the famine.

#cromwellneverforget

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Well, there have been a number of safety catches switched off over the weekend, with a number of fingers hovering over their triggers.

Firstly, is Mrs May about to pull the trigger on Brexit this week. The theory is that it might be tomorrow that she starts A50 – that is if there is no last minute revolt from Labour MPs and the Lords decide to behave themselves this time. (They originally pencilled in this Wednesday until they realised it was the 15th, the ides of March - the date of the assassination of Julius Caesar, and what with the EU’s 60th birthday bash coming up later this month in Rome…).

Secondly, is Mrs May also about to call for a general election? IMO she would be mad not to (although a No10 spokesman denied it last week). She should call for it at the same time as A50 I think.

And then there’s a distinct possibility that Sturgeon will also decide to call for indyref2 this week too. She has led her troops right up to the top of the hill on this and it would be somewhat of a climb down if she doesn’t announce it. About her only get out clause for not calling it is if somehow Scotland is given a much bigger say in Brexit negotiations. We shall see.

(Not sure my tiny brain will be able to cope with a GE, Brexit and indyref2 all at the same time. )

As for the Lords, they certainly have been overstepping the mark on the A50 bill, what with them effectively wanting a veto on the final Brexit bill.

Anyone here in Britain watching the well timed BBC documentary on the Lords? Even though this programme is (so far anyway) set before 23June, they do seem to think they are above the Commons.
The House of Lords is in desperate need of reform; we all know that.
One good idea I read about recently is that it should work a bit like a squad of 25 players from which the football manager picks their best XI.
Say there are about 600 of them in total then the parties pick their share of Lords from that 600 in proportion to the number of seats they have in the Commons.
They are there to dot the Is and cross the Ts of legislation, not actually write it (as they seem to want to do). Knowing that they could be substituted at a moment’s notice if they misbehave will help all.
And I would bring in forced retirement at, say, 80 yrs old.

 

[Commodore]

With Scotland threatening another independence referendum if the UK invokes Article 50, could a British split from the EU kill the UK as a nation?

 

[Arakhor]

As for the Lords, they certainly have been overstepping the mark on the A50 bill, what with them effectively wanting a veto on the final Brexit bill.

I don't disagree with reforming the House of Lords, but how dare the second house seek to moderate the lower house?! It's almost as if the Government is so insecure that it can't possibly function with any restrictions on their "negotiating" stance.

There's also absolutely no point in having the second house dependent on a general election. That almost entirely removes their oversight ability if they're merely beholden to the Prime Minister of the day.

 

[Kyriakos]

I don't disagree with reforming the House of Lords, but how dare the second house seek to moderate the lower house?! It's almost as if the Government is so insecure that it can't possibly function with any restrictions on their "negotiating" stance.

There's also absolutely no point in having the second house dependent on a general election. That almost entirely removes their oversight ability if they're merely beholden to the Prime Minister of the day.

Yet the house of lords seems to be way too much about nepotism. I mean... even the great Lord Two-jags is there. If you were part of any government, you usually end up a peer/lord, no?

 

[FriendlyFire]

Russia was mobilizing since Austria already had sent an impossible ultimatum to Serbia, so war seemed imminent, no? And they also knew what Germany would be doing. Let alone that Germany could stay neutral if it wanted to, like it asked... Russia to be? Anyway, Germany declared war on Russia on the first of August (1914). It is the official start of ww1.

Well I blame the Balkans, no one told people to start assasinating head of states, and Genociding each other
Of course war fever swept Europe, which had been building for a long time once the gene was out of the bottle it was impossible to halt. Germany of course didnt have to go invading everyone, neutral countries included and torpedoing peoples ships with abandon.

Germany wasnt exactly the good guys of WW1

 

[Mega Tsunami]

I was just about to post this when I see Sturgeon has indeed called for indyref2.

With Scotland threatening another independence referendum if the UK invokes Article 50, could a British split from the EU kill the UK as a nation?

It most certainly could. Polls are about 48:52 recently, although a largish majority in Scotland don’t actually want indyref2 at the moment.
Scotland’s economy is not doing so well in comparison to rUK so using Brexit is about the only way they would get indyref2 through IMO. As in – the English Tory Government is taking us out of the EU single market against our will, how double dare they? (The fact that indeyref2 might take Scotland out of the UK single market is ignored, even though they sell four times more to us than they do to the EU).
Scotland has a massive black hole in their budget – about £15bn IIRC. Not only has the price of oil more than halved since indyref1, it now appears there is less than half the quantity of oil in the North Sea than the SNP were relying on back then.

IIRC, the Scottish deficit is at about 9.5% against the rUK in the region of 3.3%. That makes Scotland worse than Greece and on those levels, the EU would not allow them in.
If Scotland does vote for indyref2, they will face an austerity plan that would make that of Greece look like a picnic.

But what price freedom huh? Stranger things have happened. Who would have thought the UK would vote for Brexit, the US for Trump, France for LePen? (Only joking on the latter).
If English ministers, especially Tory ones, go on about Scotland’s economic difficulties in the way I have above, the Scots will almost certainly vote for indy2.
The good news for us is we will get our £5bn subsidy back that we pay Scotland each year.

(As an aside: imagine the massive stick Germany would have taken to Scotland if they (as a separate EU member) overspent to such an extent.
Instead, we English say nothing as it is all absorbed by the UK. Scotland is spoilt beyond belief.)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...cit-blows-15bn-hole-in-case-for-independence/

 

[JohannaK]

Since EU membership was a major point of indyref, and since Westminster didnt fulfill any of the promises made in case of a No win, not only is indyref2 justified but also coming at the right time. It would make no sense to wait and see until the UK is already out of the Union.

 

[Lillefix]

The plot thickens. Now there are two unions on the line. An possibly more to come...

 

[Kyriakos]

Hm, not that i am pretending there is rule of law in the EU, but wouldn't a hypothetical independent Scotland have to apply to enter the EU?
It isn't the same country as the current UK.

And afaik Spain has publicly announced it would veto a Scotland bid to enter, i suppose due to its own break-away republics (which i don't think want to be in the EU that much by now either... so...)

Re Scotland, imo it would be a good move to form some kind of federal state, where Scotland itself has veto over some UK decisions.