Is the USA in recession?

Is the USA in recession


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The word "recession" is useful politically and even that utility can be overwhelmed by other events. See the 2020 recession and covid. For half ? the population the current inflation is "the worst ever" event. For much of the rest it is pretty ho hum compared to what we have seen before.
The recession from covid was indeed best met with recession fighting measures, as that was a bigger threat in that moment than the inflation that would come both regardless and because of those recession fighting measures.
 
GenMarshall
The recession is the contraction caused by the end of COVID spending. As Congress decides spending, and as the Senate requires 10 Republicans to agree with the 50 Democrats to pass further spending bills, how is this Biden?
im waiting @GenMarshall
 
I'm quite not in the mood to answer gotcha questions. 🙄
The recession is the contraction caused by the end of COVID spending. As Congress decides spending, and as the Senate requires 10 Republicans to agree with the 50 Democrats to pass further spending bills, how is this Biden?
Is he not the president of the United States?
 
I'm quite not in the mood to answer gotcha questions. 🙄

Is he not the president of the United States?
Do you understand how spending bills work? It's very specific and laid out in the constitution?
 
Do you understand how spending bills work? It's very specific and laid out in the constitution?

Umm because Republicans proclaim that the spending is the problem not the solution, hence inflation. They use simple explanations and logic that anyone can understand on Fox news to explain away why the spending bills earlier by Democrats were evil and demonically socialist/communist and that's the reason why young people are becoming lazy and not working. Supposedly an economy that doesn't "pull itself up by the bootstraps" is a disgusting"socialist pig" that will die to it's own lack of protestant work ethic, thereby exacerbating and leading to increased inflation that isn't transitory anymore.

Democrats just don't have any simple explanations nor are they using this as an opportunity to yet again bash so called satanic Marxists dwelling within the party of the opposition.
 
hmm , enjoy what we have been having as the greatest economy of all times . Uh , if the new forum software was not idiotic , it would show as a picture in the normal sense .
 

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Umm because Republicans proclaim that the spending is the problem not the solution, hence inflation.

*Morpheus.jpg* what if I told you that we could reduce supply-squeeze inflation by spending money to invest in domestic production and supply capacity


The graphic doesn't really seem to be showing up
 
*Morpheus.jpg* what if I told you that we could reduce supply-squeeze inflation by spending money to invest in domestic production and supply capacity

According to Fox the money is being spent on EBT cards and welfare. Not infrastructure. A welfare mama's dream come true.
 
That pipeline cancellation is still creating Republican voters.

Most won't read the spending bill. But they will look for the obvious, notice the conflict in narratives, and decide who is lying to them.
 
Umm because Republicans proclaim that the spending is the problem not the solution, hence inflation. They use simple explanations and logic that anyone can understand on Fox news to explain away why the spending bills earlier by Democrats were evil and demonically socialist/communist and that's the reason why young people are becoming lazy and not working. Supposedly an economy that doesn't "pull itself up by the bootstraps" is a disgusting"socialist pig" that will die to it's own lack of protestant work ethic, thereby exacerbating and leading to increased inflation that isn't transitory anymore.

Democrats just don't have any simple explanations nor are they using this as an opportunity to yet again bash so called satanic Marxists dwelling within the party of the opposition.
I agree with the first paragraph, insofar as many people see it this way. It's an important political understanding.


Lexicus is correct, now that China is an unreliable trading partner and the post covid world is ever more dependent on microchips, the long term anti-inflation measure is going to be through investment in productive capacity aka via spending.

And some Democrats have a simple explanation, aka Joe Biden saying the supply shortage is the cause of high prices and the solution is to fix the supply shortage. The satanic Marxists are, of course, on board.

That pipeline cancellation is still creating Republican voters.

Most won't read the spending bill. But they will look for the obvious, notice the conflict in narratives, and decide who is lying to them.
The foremost bottleneck in prices is microchips. Congress passed a targeted spending bill worth $52 billion to invest in overcoming that. The Senate vote was 64-33 and virtually all no votes in both houses are Republicans. The is Joe "Thanks Brandon's" suggested initiative. Meanwhile, oil prices only spiked above pre-inflation levels with the Russian war, there was no oil driver to inflation until after the inflation started. The pipeline can cause as many Republicans as it does (and does it really?), it isn't the cause nor the solution.


So just who is lying to whom? You have GenMarshall saying "we're still in a recession" in 2012, so obviously he's never given a care about "2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction" until right now. So who's lying? The Democrats his 2012 self agreed with, or the Republicans he agrees with now? And worse, who is believing their own lies? How will you expect someone to find the obvious when they can't find the facts, let alone remember themselves? FWIW that post from 2012 calling a growth year still a recession is infinity times more honest than "Thanks Brandon" for the "recession".

Speaking of obvious, I've been explaining supply side inflation for over 8 years on this website and 10 years explaining inflation.

So when supply side inflation finally happened, I've noticed a real shortage (hah!) of everyone saying "wow Hygro, thanks for preparing me to be able to understand exactly what is happening". You would think anyone with more than 3000 posts in OT would know, if they could be trusted to read and analyze the obvious. Now I know you, Farm Boy, have been reading carefully the whole time. And there's a few others, of active members there's Lexicus, El Machinae, Samson, probably about 5-6 others. But there's at least 50-100 active OT members. And most of them have no idea that I've been calling it correctly in advance.

So speaking of more obvious:

You have Joe Biden saying in his State of the Union that to reduce inflation we need to invest in productive capacity, hence the investment into microchip manufacturing in Ohio, for example. Joe Biden has the answer. Our centrist president everyone loves to hate. However, it is up to Congress to meet that answer, 66% of Senate Republicans and like 90% of House Republicans are against it. More than 99% of Democrats are for it. So how are Republicans going to fix it?

Democrats are offering spending bills against recession threat, that are also targeted to reduce long term inflation. Republicans are against most of it, making them pro near term recession and pro long term inflation. So really, who is lying? All these people who suddenly learned they believed all along recessions are simultaneously 2 terms of GDP contraction but also caused by inflation? Or me?
 
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It's, "Let's go, Brandon!"

And like inflation numbers being bespoke to a constituency(to my confusion), all the recovery was concentrated, remember? The correct answer is they're all, for the most part, lying.

Sample size and definition of words goes a long way, if you don't do both, everyone will always be lying to you.

To me, Democrat truths look much like Republican truths. IP Lords and Masters of Certification driving new righteous technology on roads swept of aluminum and plastic litter by people trying to figure out how much they need to correct to come out ahead on the fuel for delivering it. Environmentally friendly! Needful work, too.
 
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All the recovery? My food prices went up about 10-15% in the past 2 years. My income went up about 500%.
 
I am legitimately happy for you.
 
Thank you, I appreciate that, I've known you're the kind of good people who want others to be well. We need more of you.

In 2020 and 2021 the ramping increase was mostly government money. Now in 2022 that's the employment that the government money allowed me to build toward. Btw my take home pay after debt to get to this point, which is paid from after taxes (higher bracket), really puts me up by about 1.5x, not 5x. Next year will be better, as long as we don't actually have a recession and I lose my job.

Not everyone got lucky with pandemic money and circumstance like I did, but like a trillion dollars still went to straight to the middle and bottom. In all cases I agree we should target taxes to compress the total $4 trillion, for no other reason than to not widen the oligarchy-rest-of-us divide. I wonder which party will be more inclined? Some of the recent Democratic led bills have included tax hikes, before they get negotiated away to get those last couple senators.
 
Neither!

Though I have to admit, I am sorry the Republican primaries turned out the way they did in IL. I was really enjoying the Austerity vs Identity campaigns of Irvin vs Pritzger. Bailey is a snoozer.

Edit: Ah! Figured out the lazy language that caused the conversational skew(in my mind). "Recovery was concentrated." You view that lens as in "in a few megarich?" or something similar? I think that's how I'd read it. But I mean it as it pertains to the inflation numbers, concentrated in the largest urban centers. That's where the post-2008 recovery almost all went(and why reported inflation numbers are so low, now). Which are pretty largely a bespoke political constituency(kindasorta, I know, suburbanites. yuck!), like the one out by me tends to be. On economics. Coincidence? Probably not. The Democrats are stacked sky high and so densely in the mainstream market of the dominant American culture that they actually run afoul of the tiny amount of skewing potential the Electoral College has. It's a signal that they is a lack of actual diversity being represented.
 
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Show me the inconsistency. I haven’t been back fitting.
 
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