Is the USA in recession?

Is the USA in recession


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The following is the net change to the private sector aka the economy. It should turn negative this year or next, by virtue of a government deficit smaller than the trade deficit, but unless there's a big debt crisis we have money to run this party for a while.

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@Cutlass this is MMT btw, not the opinions of economists with a tower to defend ;)
Well that's actually one of the reasons there will be a crash. Most normal people have a very powerful flight or fight instinct built up over many millions of years of having to kill or be killed, eat or be eaten, and anticipating natural disaster after natural disaster.

Pessimism was therefore always naturally selected for over optimism. The optimists were always more likely to be eradicated from the gene pool.



Yes this exactly is what will happen. Street logic dictates that if you believe a storm is on the horizon you hoard like a squirrel or dragon. Boomers were trained to do this at an early age, later generations by them.

The Fed will raise rates because they are too concerned with looking good and have no clue how economics works. They are all hopelessly corrupt and need a nice lazy job to endlessly get a good paycheck.

The government will never pass a spending bill period. COVID is over, any more would be "socialist" thinking. One has to pull one's self up by the bootstraps as it's the American way. Anyone who disagrees is a no good for nothing lousy bloodsucking communist.
In order of your paragraphs I want to share some thoughts/respond.

1) There is always a crash, and before/during people hoard, causing or exacerbating it. The hoarding behavior is rational, common sense, and is why the government must be the lender/spender of last resort in this case. Not fair or realistic to ask people to self-sacrifice en masse.

2) I don't think this is true beyond a tilt. I think humans are quite optimistic, but it would make sense to be biased to underextension above overextension.

3) As you say, instinct over millions of years, so I don't think it's a boomer thing at all. They definitely watched their depression age parents and deduced their parents were over-guarding.

4) Agree they are incentivized to look good via raising rates. They do understand economics although most of them as "doctors" rather than "scientists", metaphorically and unfortunately. I don't think they are corrupt, I do think some are lazy.

5) I think your prediction is correct. Suck it, lousy bloodsucking communists!
 
The government will never pass a spending bill period
Does this count?
In a major boost to Democrats, Manchin and Schumer announce deal for energy and health care bill

(CNN)Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Joe Manchin on Wednesday announced a deal on an energy and health care bill, representing a breakthrough after more than a year of negotiations that have collapsed time and again.
But it will face furious GOP opposition. The deal is a major reversal for Manchin, and the health and climate bill stands a serious chance of becoming law as soon as August -- assuming Democrats can pass the bill in the House and that it passes muster with the Senate parliamentarian to allow it to be approved along straight party lines in the budget process. While Manchin scuttled President Joe Biden's Build Back Better bill, the final deal includes a number of provisions the moderate from West Virginia had privately scoffed at, representing a significant reversal from earlier this month. That includes provisions addressing the climate crisis.

The agreement contains a number of Democrats' goals. While many details have not been disclosed, the measure would invest $369 billion into energy and climate change programs, with the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030, according to a one-page fact sheet. For the first time, Medicare would be empowered to negotiate the prices of certain medications, and it would cap out-of-pocket costs at $2,000 for those enrolled in Medicare drug plans. It would also extend expiring enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care Act coverage for three years.
The announcement comes at a crucial time for Congress, as the Senate is a little over a week away from starting a monthlong recess, when many Democrats will campaign for reelection. The news also came several hours after the Senate passed a separate bill to invest $52 billion in US manufacturing of semiconductors, sending it to the House to consider as soon as this week.
Notably, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had previously vowed to try to halt passage of the semiconductor bill if Democrats continued to pursue their party-line bill on climate and drug prices....

 
Do we have our answer?

US economy enters technical recession: GDP drop of 0.9% in Q2

US GDP contracted 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, putting the country into a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth.​
The GDP numbers defied expectations, with experts predicting 0.5% growth.​
This followed a contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter of this year putting the US into a technical recession by global standards.​
 
Thanks Brandon. 🤬

Yeah, he kept pressing that damn inflation button and now he pressed the recession button! Someone really needs to go take these buttons away!
 
Do we have our answer?

US economy enters technical recession: GDP drop of 0.9% in Q2

US GDP contracted 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, putting the country into a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of negative growth.​
The GDP numbers defied expectations, with experts predicting 0.5% growth.​
This followed a contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter of this year putting the US into a technical recession by global standards.​

Officially still a no, but effectively yes.

 
Thanks Brandon. 🤬
The recession is the contraction caused by the end of COVID spending. As Congress decides spending, and as the Senate requires 10 Republicans to agree with the 50 Democrats to pass further spending bills, how is this Biden?
 
We had a recession in 2020 too. It didn't last very long. I would not expect this one to go beyond 2 quarters.
 
Additionally, while GDP, the measure of dollars spent, did recede, they aren't calling it a "recession." This makes sense: employment, aka the real economy, hasn't receded.
 
Officially still a no, but effectively yes.

As with so many discussions here, it depends what really defines language. If most people mean back-to-back negative GDP quarters when they say recession does that not make recesion mean that? Not some guy in a suit telling use what our language means.
 
As with so many discussions here, it depends what really defines language. If most people mean back-to-back negative GDP quarters when they say recession does that not make recesion mean that? Not some guy in a suit telling use what our language means.
No. It doesn't. People only care about the affects of a recession and therefore use the word to stand in for the accumulation of those affects. No one cares if GDP receded if they and everyone else has jobs, and the producers of the things they buy keep producing. Another way to put this: recession a diagnosis, and diagnostic criteria doesn't define the disease.GDP is the best easiest measure of economy, and therefore the most basic diagnostic tool. But GDP has never been the only nor best-most comprehensive measure.

If it was simply the GDP measure they'd cut it to one quarter, or one day, or one second, and mark each one accordingly as a recession. That it's two consecutive quarters is already a clue it's just a heuristic.
 
Another way to think about it is the laymen don't define –GDP for 2 consecutive quarters as a recession only to follow along with the suit guy. Otherwise, that's not been on the minds of anyone.

Want proof? People called the bad economy of 2010-2015 (±depending on location) the recession even though GDP was positive almost every quarter that entire time. No one considered the recession over just because the Suit guys said we're back to growing again--the economy was still receded and unemployment continued to be a huge problem.
 
As with so many discussions here, it depends what really defines language. If most people mean back-to-back negative GDP quarters when they say recession does that not make recesion mean that? Not some guy in a suit telling use what our language means.
I agree, at least partially. Having someone decide for us when we are in a recession seems arbitory. However @Hygro is probably right in saying the measure traditionally used is too simplistic. I'm not certain whether this feels like a recession or not. This feels like the worst inflation I have ever experienced, at the same time the job market still appears relatively healthy. I'm probably out of my depth on this thread, I'm not good at economics!

I do generally think we give our leaders to much credit/blame for the economy. So many factors impact it that are largely out of their control (covid for Trump, Ukraine war for Biden).
 
No. It doesn't. People only care about the affects of a recession and therefore use the word to stand in for the accumulation of those affects. No one cares if GDP receded if they and everyone else has jobs, and the producers of the things they buy keep producing. Another way to put this: recession a diagnosis, and diagnostic criteria doesn't define the disease.GDP is the best easiest measure of economy, and therefore the most basic diagnostic tool. But GDP has never been the only nor best-most comprehensive measure.

If it was simply the GDP measure they'd cut it to one quarter, or one day, or one second, and mark each one accordingly as a recession. That it's two consecutive quarters is already a clue it's just a heuristic.
Cumulative effects? So like, what? People are having a hard time buying eggs and gas, scrabbling around in gigs, and just forget home ownership? Sounds sorta recessionny. It's not like even in the Great D that the houses and fields went away, or ceased producing(the Dust Bowl was overproduction, even). You just couldn't have them even if you were the one that worked and lived in them. Somebody else got to own that stuff. That was the change. Are we not quite to the time of taking? Is that basically the assertion-ish?
 
Cumulative effects? So like, what? People are having a hard time buying eggs and gas, scrabbling around in gigs, and just forget home ownership? Sounds sorta recessionny. It's not like even in the Great D that the houses and fields went away, or ceased producing(the Dust Bowl was overproduction, even). You just couldn't have them even if you were the one that worked and lived in them. Somebody else got to own that stuff. That was the change. Are we not quite to the time of taking? Is that basically the assertion-ish?
The economy is always "bad" to a lot of people.
 
Does that smother out distinction?
 
Does that smother out distinction?

Inequality is different from a recession. I would agree that the fundamentals of the economy are getting worse over time (for some of the reasons you mentioned) but that's not the same thing as a recession.
 
Does that smother out distinction?
It could, but it could also stop the different smothering of distinction. I'll offer the supplemental package so it's not incomplete.

We stop worrying about 2 quarters GDP = recession —> our supply inflation complaints are justified. That's irrational, overfitting a technical recession indicator to declare a technical economic phenomenon to justify the problems caused by a different technical economic phenomenon

Needing it to be a recession, of course, proves this has nothing to do with "Biden redefined a recession" and everything to do with "there are problems to fix!" We are smothering distinction calling it all recession. So we stop calling it recession.

Now to re add distinction:
So start with the complaint: paycheck didn't rise with CoL. Problem to consumer is inflation. Cause is supply shortage. Solution to supply shortage: more supply.

Now our democracy researches or listens for supply solutions. Supply solutions: targeted investment in productive capacity. But to avoid further inflation during the buildup: higher taxes. Alternative inflation avoidance: higher

The problem with calling it recession:
The solution to recession is general spending, lower taxes, lower interest rates (which includes higher inflation!!!!), weakened currency, disincentivizing savings etc. The goal is increased spending in order to increase employment and stop deflation.

Most of this is ass backward for solving the current problem. Once we call inflation a recession, when we try to solve the inflation we confuse people with solutions for the recession. Kind of like how a bunch of Republicans and voters thought in 2009 the solution was to cut spending to "tighten the belts" until "the economy" came back, implying a supply problem.

Pretend none of division in the 2009 response was deliberate sabotage, and it was a reflection of the will of the voters based on their hopes for a best outcome: we had 5 years of below "acceptable" economy because a lot of our chosen recession reaction was functionally to fear inflation and do recovery stymying moves. We sow confusion and division using technical shorthands (recession) for general problems (bad).


Now the standard response to demand side inflation is to the opposite of a (demand side) recession like 2009. Higher taxes, higher rates interest, less spending, stronger currency, incentivizing savings. The goal is decreased spending. The problem itself is inflation, the solution is to stop the inflation.

With supply side inflation its more nuanced, the problem
To get more supply requires:
building, restarting, or recapturing what was lost. To do that requires spending, but the goal of stopping inflation requires we don't do this generally. So we target our spending: shortage of microchips makes cars expensive? Build chip factories. Shortage of basic consumer electronics we got from China? Invade China and end their zero COVID strategy keep interest rates low and wait for other countries and domestic industry to fill the gap. Temporarily reduce government spending in things that compete for resources, raise taxes on anything that pulls away from fixing the bottleneck.

While inflation creates its own problems, the inflation from a supply shortage is, in addition to its own problem, the symptom of a poverty that will express itself in the economy no matter what, inflation or not, and as such will be worth weathering some of the inflation to not create other problems, while we solve the source of the inflation.


So yeah, the language matters. Both to reduce complication but also to increase specificity, so as to solve the right problem, together.
 
The word "recession" is useful politically and even that utility can be overwhelmed by other events. See the 2020 recession and covid. For half ? the population the current inflation is "the worst ever" event. For much of the rest it is pretty ho hum compared to what we have seen before.
 
Ah. So the time of taking will be intentional rather than unintentional. ;)

I've just started realizing why I disconnect so much, the inflation numbers that are listed are urban numbers, often enough, if you care to dig. Yeah. It's not been 8 or 9% for a hot minute or year or whatever otherwise.

I don't care much about Biden, he didn't do this and everyone knows it. Subsidization of targeted industry is...what. Ongoing? As per?
 
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