Is the USA in recession?

[Terxpahseyton]

I am not. But that is part of the disguise, for one. The virus now, for instance, seems to settle down.. am also wrong about that? No. The virus right now has to experience that the vaccines do stop its spread... which was to be expected. So it must grow stronger. We already know since years now I believe, from experiments in Israel, that the virus eventually will defeat all the vaccines. We know this. Public record. But no one seems to notice the implications... Back and forth. Fear, hope, fear, hope. All a show. Same goes for the economy. Also, before it all comes crashing down, things always are the most profitable. That has always been so, in the history of economics... the things I have to explain. But yeah, I know... you all want to remain in the cave.

But soon enough, those in the cave will all drown. I am not your enemy. But I can not force anyone's eyes open... one must choose the red pill. And open oneself up to the pain the fire of truth brings. Not an easy choice. I may neither have made it... but never was given a choice....

 

[Terxpahseyton]

...

 

[amadeus]

At the very top of the pyramid, all that remains, is truth.

No, I’m pretty sure the top is $20,000.

 

[El_Machinae]

Not drinking should save you a lot. Smart.

Drinking has been a leisure activity for a long time, even when living standards were much lower and productivity much lower too.

If alcohol becomes unaffordable, there's a very weird displacement going on.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Drinking has been a leisure activity for a long time, even when living standards were much lower and productivity much lower too.

If alcohol becomes unaffordable, there's a very weird displacement going on.

We know for sure that humans have enjoyed drinking for at least 6,000 years, but it is not mentioned in the constitution so it cannot be considered a "right". Just think about, if we banned alcohol, not only would people be better behaved, they would save lots of money. It would be a win-win!

And more seriously, when needing to save money, reducing alcohol spending tends to be a healthy and not too hard a step for most people. It is right up there with cutting out donuts or triple whoppers.

 

[Samson]

And more seriously, when needing to save money, reducing alcohol spending tends to be a healthy and not too hard a step for most people. It is right up there with cutting out donuts or triple whoppers.

It is also a "great" paliative for SLS. Making it yourself is a great way to reduce your expenditure.

 

[El_Machinae]

And more seriously, when needing to save money, reducing alcohol spending tends to be a healthy and not too hard a step for most people. It is right up there with cutting out donuts or triple whoppers.

Oh, it makes sense. It's just a weird disruption. There's been a frog in that pot for awhile, though

 

[Kaitzilla]

Did anyone predict they would change the definition of recession?

 

[Joij21]

Did anyone predict they would change the definition of recession?

No, because I haven't. Some people want to cope though. Especially before the storm arrives and destroys their hopes and dreams.

I got nothing left to lose so I for one will be laughing in delight from everyone else's suffering. Particularly the suffering of those that have wronged me.

Revenge does wonders for the will to live, don't you agree?

 

[EnglishEdward]

Who precisely has wronged you?

 

[Kaitzilla]

No, because I haven't. Some people want to cope though. Especially before the storm arrives and destroys their hopes and dreams.

I got nothing left to lose so I for one will be laughing in delight from everyone else's suffering. Particularly the suffering of those that have wronged me.

Revenge does wonders for the will to live, don't you agree?

Revenge makes me feel great for about five seconds.

I think creating something, artist style, out of nothing, makes me feel godlike for an entire day or even a week.
So I go for that these days.

 

[Birdjaguar]

GDP numbers for the second Quarter come out Thursday.

 

[Hygro]

Word on the street, the reddit streets, is that they're gonna be negative but they won't call a recession.

 

[Rg339]

Word on the street, the reddit streets, is that they're gonna be negative but they won't call a recession.

I think it’s gonna be harsh, but Reddit’s always too pessimistic. They think catastrophe’s always around the corner.

People there get upvotes for saying the equivalent of “IM VERY CONCERNED AND PPL ARE BAD” in 20k different ways. They’re addicted to doomsaying.

 

[Hygro]

Half of my karma is toecutting the naysayers in wallstreet bets with my econ knowledge. This includes copious downvotes and people telling me I'm an idiot.

 

[Hygro]

On the recession topic:

So we saw GDP recede on the back of no more government spending. But we haven't seen output recede, labor and capital is still at full employment. We have seen some growth stop (hiring freezes), and everyone's loans are counting everyone else's continued growth. If all the firms and households start saving for the rainy day at the same time, and the Fed raises rates, and the government can't pass a spending bill, it'll tip into an actual recession. But right now I think it's the most literal definition of a "correction", a correction of money/numbers to match the same output: GDP went down as government spending slowed, but the real economy stayed the same.

 

[Zardnaar]

Numbers will be interesting.

 

[Hygro]

The following is the net change to the private sector aka the economy. It should turn negative this year or next, by virtue of a government deficit smaller than the trade deficit, but unless there's a big debt crisis we have money to run this party for a while.

 

[Joij21]

I think it’s gonna be harsh, but Reddit’s always too pessimistic. They think catastrophe’s always around the corner.

People there get upvotes for saying the equivalent of “IM VERY CONCERNED AND PPL ARE BAD” in 20k different ways. They’re addicted to doomsaying.

Well that's actually one of the reasons there will be a crash. Most normal people have a very powerful flight or fight instinct built up over many millions of years of having to kill or be killed, eat or be eaten, and anticipating natural disaster after natural disaster.

Pessimism was therefore always naturally selected for over optimism. The optimists were always more likely to be eradicated from the gene pool.

If all the firms and households start saving for the rainy day at the same time, and the Fed raises rates, and the government can't pass a spending bill, it'll tip into an actual recession.

Yes this exactly is what will happen. Street logic dictates that if you believe a storm is on the horizon you hoard like a squirrel or dragon. Boomers were trained to do this at an early age, later generations by them.

The Fed will raise rates because they are too concerned with looking good and have no clue how economics works. They are all hopelessly corrupt and need a nice lazy job to endlessly get a good paycheck.

The government will never pass a spending bill period. COVID is over, any more would be "socialist" thinking. One has to pull one's self up by the bootstraps as it's the American way. Anyone who disagrees is a no good for nothing lousy bloodsucking communist.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Well that's actually one of the reasons there will be a crash. Most normal people have a very powerful flight or fight instinct built up over many millions of years of having to kill or be killed, eat or be eaten, and anticipating natural disaster after natural disaster.

"Crash"? What do you mean by this? Do you mean a stock market crash? Some other crash? Please explain.

Fight or flight is an immediate response to perceived danger. It happens in seconds, in the brain. Anticipating natural disasters is a wholly different thing which humans mostly cannot do, but when presented with the opportunities, rarely do. We find it simpler to "fix" things after the fact.