Is there any point in keeping NATO around?

[hobbsyoyo]

Right now they're doing the exact same thing in eastern Ukraine and nobody is doing anything about it.. so..

Exactly.

 

[Ajidica]

Right now they're doing the exact same thing in eastern Ukraine and nobody is doing anything about it.. so..

I wouldn't call Almost Certain Russian Government Involvement in the Ukrainian Civil War to be all that comparable to a fully fledged Russian invasion of Estonia.

Given the terrible state of the Ukrainian Army before the civil war, I'd be willing to bet that a fully fledged Russian invasion (assuming to NATO/EU military support for Ukraine) would result in T-80's sitting outside Kiev very quickly.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I wouldn't call Almost Certain Russian Government Involvement in the Ukrainian Civil War to be all that comparable to a fully fledged Russian invasion of Estonia.

But who is to say that Russia would conventionally invade Estonia given how well the Ukraine situation is playing out for them?

But the point still stands that it's fairly obvious that Russia is supplying/controlling the rebellion in the Ukraine and they did outright annex Crimea after an invasion and no one can do much to stop it. The same would apply even to a conventional invasion of Estonia.

It would suck to just let a country be outright invaded but when the alternative is setting the entire planet on fire then you have to take the former.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I do think they have capability to brutally invade, pacify and occupy some smaller eastern European countries though and no one would be in a good position to stop it.

Invade, probably. Pacify, maybe. Occupy? They already tried that once and found that it doesn't work (see: former Soviet Union) so they probably know better.

Right now they're doing the exact same thing in eastern Ukraine and nobody is doing anything about it.. so..

Invading? Hardly. Pacifying? Not required, other than getting rid of the stray Ukrainian troops. Occupying? They already were.

Eastern Ukraine has about as much interest in being governed by Kiev as I do. The Russophobes resent the idea that anyone might actually prefer Russian rule, but those people apparently do.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Invade, probably. Pacify, maybe. Occupy? They already tried that once and found that it doesn't work (see: former Soviet Union) so they probably know better.

Yeah it only took 40 years or so for that to unravel...

 

[warpus]

These Russian tactics that we're seeing in Ukraine is exactly what they'd do in Estonia, should that ever happen. You would never see a conventional invasion, not in a situation like that. The Russians aren't stupid, they can see what works, and they know what wouldn't.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

These Russian tactics that we're seeing in Ukraine is exactly what they'd do in Estonia, should that ever happen. You would never see a conventional invasion, not in a situation like that. The Russians aren't stupid, they can see what works, and they know what wouldn't.

Is the population of Estonia almost universally pro-Russian, like the population of eastern Ukraine is? If so then the Russians might be looking at eastern Ukraine and saying "hey that might work in Estonia." But as far as I know the population of Estonia is not even remotely pro-Russian. The Russians aren't stupid, so they aren't likely to think something that works under one circumstance will work just as well in a totally opposite situation.

 

[warpus]

Is the population of Estonia almost universally pro-Russian, like the population of eastern Ukraine is? If so then the Russians might be looking at eastern Ukraine and saying "hey that might work in Estonia." But as far as I know the population of Estonia is not even remotely pro-Russian. The Russians aren't stupid, so they aren't likely to think something that works under one circumstance will work just as well in a totally opposite situation.

Ethnic Russians make up 25% of the Estonian population, which is why I thought we were talking about Estonia here to begin with.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Ethnic Russians make up 25% of the Estonian population, which is why I thought we were talking about Estonia here to begin with.

25% of the population by ethnicity is nothing like the situation in eastern Ukraine. Crimea is over 50%, and the easternmost regions are close to 40% by ethnicity. More importantly, those areas identify with Russia politically, as evidenced in election results. Once again my knowledge is limited, but as far as I know there is no history of pro-Russian candidates faring well in any part of Estonia.

 

[warpus]

Either way, if Russia was going to try anything in Estonia, they would take a lot of cues from what worked in Ukraine. They wouldn't just send a giant army for the purposes of invasion and full annexation - those are outdated tactics now, it seems. Putin has gone on record to say that any ethnic Russians living outside of Russia's borders are for Moscow to protect. With so many ethnic Russians living in Estonia, the non-Russian population there has valid cause for concern.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Either way, if Russia was going to try anything in Estonia, they would take a lot of cues from what worked in Ukraine. They wouldn't just send a giant army for the purposes of invasion and full annexation - those are outdated tactics now, it seems. Putin has gone on record to say that any ethnic Russians living outside of Russia's borders are for Moscow to protect. With so many ethnic Russians living in Estonia, the non-Russian population there has valid cause for concern.

Cause for concern? Sure. Heck, I'm concerned about France and Germany renewing hostilities.

There are very limited 'cues' to work with from Ukraine though, because the situations are hardly even similar, much less the same. So I don't see the events in the Ukraine as cause for heightened concern in Estonia.

 

[warpus]

Well, ask any ethnic Estonians how they feel about the situation - they will tell you that there is a heightened sense of worry certainly - at least from what I've been reading. Heck, there is a hightened sense of concern and worry in most of central and eastern Europe, even in countries were there are no sizeable ethnic Russian minorities.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Well, ask any ethnic Estonians how they feel about the situation - they will tell you that there is a heightened sense of worry certainly - at least from what I've been reading.

I get that. People worry. Then they look for reasons why they should worry even more. In Estonia they see 'they have ethnic Russians, we have ethnic Russians' and that is enough to justify more worrying...in their minds. But objective analysis shows that the differences far outweigh the limited similarities.

 

[warpus]

Personally, I would be worried too, if I lived somewhere in the region, in a country with such a sizeable Russian population. It's impossible to predict these things, and while I really doubt Russia would try anything in Estonia anytime soon, you can't fault Estonians from feeling a bit uneasy abut the whole situation. They used to be a part of the USSR as well - contrasting it how my own countrymen - people who were never a part of the USSR but "just" the Warsaw Pact, feel about it.. I would expect the level of concern to be much higher in the baltics.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Personally, I would be worried too, if I lived somewhere in the region, in a country with such a sizeable Russian population. It's impossible to predict these things, and while I really doubt Russia would try anything in Estonia anytime soon, you can't fault Estonians from feeling a bit uneasy abut the whole situation. They used to be a part of the USSR as well - contrasting it how my own countrymen - people who were never a part of the USSR but "just" the Warsaw Pact, feel about it.. I would expect the level of concern to be much higher in the baltics.

As I said, I am not going to deny them their right to worry as they see fit. I'm just not going to join in on this one.

 

[red_elk]

Actually, I also live in a country with sizeable Russian population and I'm a bit worried too.

 

[Yeekim]

These Russian tactics that we're seeing in Ukraine is exactly what they'd do in Estonia, should that ever happen. You would never see a conventional invasion, not in a situation like that. The Russians aren't stupid, they can see what works, and they know what wouldn't.

Actually, a quick blitz to occupy capitols and larger cities of Baltic States is something the Russians could likely pull off in a matter of days, to present the rest of the Europe/NATO with fait accompli. At any rate, that would be what I'd do, instead of the "little green men" charade. As a random funny fact, our peace-loving neighbors have announced plans to field 72 000 paratroopers by 2019 (they currently have 35 000, wholly inadequate to properly defend themselves).

By comparison, Estonia has 5500-man regular army and ~15 000 man volunteer force.
150 or so NATO troops hastily stationed here will... probably not make enough of a difference, although judging by Russian reaction, they are a grave threat to St.Petersburg. Latvian and Lithuanian military is even less-existent.

The greatest advantage we have is that there is little tangible to gain from such a conquest. Some timber, peat, limestone, bit of shale that's being depleted fast, and native tribes with entirely unwelcoming disposition.

On the other hand, conquests aren't always undertaken for sound economic reasons. And Putin might pick a moment NATO, chiefly US, is tied down in another conflict (ISIS?) and use this opportunity to attempt to discredit and potentially break the entire alliance by showing it can't protect its members.

Not likely, but certainly no longer unimaginable development.

 

[Borachio]

Actually, a quick blitz to occupy capitols and larger cities of Baltic States is something the Russians could likely pull off in a matter of days, to present the rest of the Europe/NATO with fait accompli.

Hmm. That would kind of put NATO in a bind, though. Either they accept that they're powerless to defend their members, and the Treaty collapses. Or they must retaliate militarily.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Hmm. That would kind of put NATO in a bind, though. Either they accept that they're powerless to defend their members, and the Treaty collapses. Or they must retaliate militarily.

Which at least one of them is always itching to do. I don't see the Russians going there, myself. As Yeekim says, for what? A little patch of land full of unruly people that would require constant policing?

 

[Yeekim]

Which at least one of them is always itching to do. I don't see the Russians going there, myself. As Yeekim says, for what? A little patch of land full of unruly people that would require constant policing?

At least or at most? At any rate, I'm praying that present and future rulers of Russia share your conviction in hawkishness and determination of US.