Or fear. I'm guessing the people still under his control fear rising against him more than they actually support him.
Libya: Seriously, where is this going?
- Thread starter RedRalph
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Or fear. I'm guessing the people still under his control fear rising against him more than they actually support him.
That was rude of you.
My assumption lies with the previous crackdown on protesters when this thing initially broke out, and the fact that he has his own military units roaming the capitol (which wouldn't really be necessary if he had a large base of support). I'm not saying he doesn't have some support, but I would guess the majority are placated by fear.
Mise
isle of lucy
Well I can't see Gaddafi winning that's for sure. It's a matter of when now, not if. Misrata hasn't fallen, and as long as it doesn't, a de facto partition is impossible. So it will just take time... How long I have no idea, depends on a whole host of things. But I really can't see any other outcome than Gaddafi losing control of the West.
Do you really think so? I've been fearing this whole time that the opposite - that eventually the rebellion withers and dies at the hands of Gaddafi's professionally-trained and -equipped military. I'm admittedly uninformed when it comes to popular uprisings, rebellions, and civil wars in North African nations - let alone the specifics of this particular nation - but it seems like the loyalists have the money, arms, training, and manpower. I honestly have no idea how schoolteachers and postal clerks fight a successful war against that, even with NATO support.
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
I absolutely see him winning if the current level of operations is the best we got. As soon as the nations flying the planes decide thats enough money spent, they'll go home and Qaddafi will mop up. All he has to do is hide out til then.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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Free nations? You mean the nations that invade other nations, make sure that they'll be wrecked by internal conflict, apply the age-old principle of divide et impera, and run them as protectorates? Oh, sure, foreign rule is freedom, no doubt...
woody60707
Deity
WHOA WHOA! what is this about American troops? This is a European lead action.
punkbass2000
Des An artiste
What we need is some sort of international penalty for untimely or otherwise tardy revolutions.
Singularity
Infinite Density
Yup. Which is why I think it will end in a horribly prolongued conflict. Eventually leading to Libya splitting into two. And in worst case have a large contested area where we will see fighting for an even longer time for stuff like Oil and arible land.
If it was US led we would most likely have seen a better end to it.
GoodGame
Red, White, & Blue, baby!
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Price of oil goes up. Profit. Bribe the people that are angry (NATO, rebels, etc..). Profit more until next regime crisis such as Gaddafi on death bed from old age.
Virote_Considon
The Great Dictator
Singularity
Infinite Density
Ah, you're just envious that they can start a conflict and actually have enough munition to end it.
Virote_Considon
The Great Dictator
Singularity
Infinite Density
As far as I'm aware, the Falkands conflict ended just fine and dandy.
Ah, but this is not 1982 and Cameron is not Thatcher
Virote_Considon
The Great Dictator
Ah, but this is not 1982 and Cameron is not Thatcher
Well, you guys lead the way towards a solid end in Afghanistan and then we'll talk contemporary.
Gaddafi has seen that restraint lead to the revolutions of Mubarek and Ben Ali, but that nations that stomped on the protesters like Bahrain and Syria will return to normal in a few months. So, he had his sons will not stop until they are dead given that they are already international pariahs.
There were a few rumors from Al Jazeera that the rebels were making some major progress this week, but unless they are incredibly lucky, the best they will be able to achieve is a stalemate. But, a stalemate will probably be a lot like a North/ South Vietnam situation in which Guadaffi will be able to use his oil as a means to resupply his army in order to overwhelm the east. As Mob Boss said, while brutal, his army is not horribly incompetent, and that will be the deciding factor unless we actually decide to do more than fire at the occasional tank we see these days.
There were a few rumors from Al Jazeera that the rebels were making some major progress this week, but unless they are incredibly lucky, the best they will be able to achieve is a stalemate. But, a stalemate will probably be a lot like a North/ South Vietnam situation in which Guadaffi will be able to use his oil as a means to resupply his army in order to overwhelm the east. As Mob Boss said, while brutal, his army is not horribly incompetent, and that will be the deciding factor unless we actually decide to do more than fire at the occasional tank we see these days.
The oil is in the East of the country, in rebel hands. A possibility is more along the lines of North/South Korea with a wealthy Western backed 'free' Libya in the east based in Benghazi and a impoverished, militarized Ghaddafi Libya in the west based in Tripoli with a standoff and frequent clashes over border towns and cities and incursions across the desert.
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