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Long term future plans/strategy.

Discussion in 'The Knights’ Brotherhood' started by I. Larkin, Jan 26, 2011.

  1. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    Memento, the idea was that we do gpt-deals with the Eagles. no loss then.

    t_x
     
  2. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    I do not yet know the answers, but I believe I have some questions that we should start to work on:

    If plans stay as they are, and the Eagles agree to our proposal, when will we reach the MA?
    Will we then be militarily ready to strike?
    How many troops will we need, in case we meet an unprepared foe?
    Which techniques do we need to apply? (one thing I can come up with, I am sure we need ships to reach towns in the back of their empire, so that we can either really land troops there or at least they cannot be sure whether they are loaded and throw everything at the front)

    Memento? Ivan?

    templar_x
     
  3. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    Even Knights would take heavy losses against Hoplites. So we either need Cavs (by that time the Eagles have already taken over their continent and practically won the game) or Trebuchets (which requires a much higher production than the Anarcho's).

    Even if I repeat myself: this does not make any sense whatsoever! We are the ones who achieved a huge tech advantage. But instead of converting it into a victory (by taking over the backward Eagles or Küche) we are gifting it to the Eagles who will then reap the benefits by taking their continent quickly against a backward opponent, who will perhaps not even manage to trigger his GA (if he is French or Ottoman). We on the other hand will either bite our teeth out against an opponent, who will naturally get a GA as soon as we attack and who has a strong UU for which we don't have an appropriate weapon yet.
    And why all this? Only because d7 has said 2-3 stupid things and your emotions have gotten the upper hand over your logical reasoning!! I have given lots of arguments and objective facts why this strategy is stupid. But instead of refuting my arguments (which you can't because they are true), you just ignore them and say something like "they are paranoid, they get on my nerves, we need to "punish" them, etc.
    Honestly, this is completely unprofessional and irrational... Just because d7 annoyed you, you throw away a crystal clear, straight-forward and low-risk plan for victory, and gift the game to the Eagles! (Where I must say, Cyc's behavior has annoyed me much more than d7's. He accused us of breaking a game-rule without even talking to us first, and also gave information to the other two teams which he should not have been allowed to do.) I didn't mind d7's words at all. I was even happy to hear them, because an alliance with a partner, who is not "realistic" and overestimates himself / underestimates us, is much better than an alliance with a really strong partner (especially if he will have a whole continent soon, while we have only half a continent...)

    :old:
    But only Memento seems to see the logic behind my words... :confused:

    Good night.
     
  4. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    To go war against both Kuhe and Eagles unthinkable because of Dormons. However we need security: the worst case scenario that d7 take Republic and "that it" we have nothing and can do nothing because of Hoplits. It would be very stupid if we agree "not to contact" and will be stupid if we will agree not to trade with Eagles. We are not scientific, and cash and military is our power. With Eagles we will get MM + cash.
    Problem was that "deal" that Lanzelot manage to make with Anarhos is so risky and low profitable that we were forced to find some alternative.
    Who pull your tongue "not to trade "mentioned above techs"? (I mean Lit, CoL, Rep?) What the reason to provide information before alliance signed?
    Look, Anarhos do what they want, ignore us completely... It is not d7 words, just the way how they plays.
    However I (and t-x I think) do not consider "war at our continent" as primary option. With UU we both have both have little reason to start war early.
    However consider what will happen if Anarhos "change their mind" and WILL NOT give us MA tech? Or worth: will delay research getting more and more techs from us and after we demand gpt declare war or "send us of"? We must have strong military to avoid this, military requires cash, the only place is "Eagles" (if they agree to trade...). But if we have strong military why not use it? Or at least consider "military plan"?
     
  5. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    Memento only seems to lack a good memory, despite his name :D (only playing with words here...)

    Your are right, Lanzelot, and your are not.

    You say some of us do not want to simply join into an unconditional alliance with someone who called us stupid, unable and treacherous.
    You bet! Wars were declared for lesser reasons.

    You state that if we would stay in the alliance with the Anarchos we will have a low-risk plan to win the game.
    Interesting, what does this plan look like? The last thing I heard, before the Anarchos told us they will go to war with us!, is that we shall engage into a space race with a scientific civ. Not too convincing for me, I am sorry.

    So if you want anyone, or at least me, to reconsider, you will have to draw me a picture where we do not let the Anarchie win, because I do not want d7 to stay in this game for too much longer, and how we will win together with them.

    On the other hand, you are quite hard with the Eagles. Cyc was a dick, but from then on everything was plain sensible words we heard from them. Ok, you may say, they are plotting against us. Maybe. We do not know.
    But which great help are you talking about they would get from us to take over their continent? Since they have IW already, which their possible opponent has too, I fail to see how it would be us to bring them into the suitable position. Ok, Republic will be fine of course. But at first it does not bring them closer to war, do not claim you do not know that. Or do you typically start wars right after revolution?

    And the truth is, that very likely, if Küche is not plain stupid, the Eagles will not have a GA in that war either. Even when they are not playing optimally, they could easily create a stalemate position on their continent.

    Lastly, and I am repeating myself here a lot: In case the Anarchie already builds lots of hoplites, we of course MUST NOT attack them. Or there will be two victims of the war, whatever the outcome is.

    templar_x
     
  6. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    Ok, the plan is: together with the Anarchy we reach the MA much much faster than the other continent. Remember: they still need Republic and Literature, before they can research as fast as we can! And even if it is only 20 turns head-start on Republic (I think it must be more, even if the Eagles are making 30gpt, they can't put everything into research), it is still 20 turns more growth, more research and more production! This accellerates exponentially and will be enough to have a sufficient head-start on Feudalism (perhaps even Chivalry, if cooperation on the other continent goes bad). Then we send stacks of MI+Numideans (or Knights) over and capture the Küche quickly. The Anarchos will at the same time attack the Eagles. (Of course it makes sense that we attack the south, while they attack the north...) The Anarchos will realize that they have no alternative to this plan, because they know as well as we do, that it does not make sense for them to attack our Numideans... So if they don't want to loose too much ground towards us, they will have to follow suite and try to conquer ground on the other continent, just as agreed in the "alliance". (And I think I know d7 good enough to see, that exactly this is his big plan.)

    Of course we will conquer the Küche much faster than the Anarchos make progress against the Eagles, because
    • we have a slightly more powerful empire than the Anarchos
    • the Küche is weaker than the Eagles
    • if Küche is not Persia, they won't be able to trigger GA, while the Eagles will most probably be able to do so
    • the Anarchos will have some losses due to the dromons...
    • we have Ivan and Memento in our team, two absolute masters at warfare and logisitcs... :goodjob:

    All these factors add up to quite a substantial advantage. So I hope we'll be able to take the Küche quickly, while the Anarchos weaken the Eagles. Then we join that war as well and gain a good portion of the Eagle's territory. If everything goes smoothly, we get 66% of the other continent, while the Anarchos get only 33%.
    This should be a sufficient advantage for the endgame (more unit upkeep, more science farms), no matter whether we go for a final military showdown or for a space race.

    Rep + Lit will give the Eagles a huge population, production and research advantage over the Küche. They will be able to attack the weakest nation, while we are stuck on our continent with a quite strong opponent.
     
  7. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    So this is my plan.
    a) how does yours look like?
    b) what do you think is wrong with my plan? (Or better with your plan?)
     
  8. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    a) please read through my detailed posts and emails for this. while i am aware that nearly no one replied to them, but i am still not ready to formulate everything again.

    b) 3 things, that you take for granted but are not at all:

    1.
    although this is still the likeliest of your assumptions, it is by no means a sure thing. other topics which we would have believed no sane person could see otherwise (agree on a settlement plan, build up useful core towns...) were matters of big arguments with d7+co.

    2.
    i cannot see the slightest reason to automatically assume it will be that way. our faster ships even may be an argument why WE should attack the Eagles that are slightly farther away. however, in fact they are not, only their end of the continent does lie farther away from the sea passage.

    3.
    this is simply wrong. if they use their advantage from Rep+Lit for research, they will militarily only benefit VERY LITTLE. to be precise, directly only by the lower corruption, and indirectly by the higher pop growth. for the first, they of course have to compensate the loss of the period of revolution before you can call it an advantage. this is not trivial.

    it would be different if they would choose NOT to research, but upgrade/rush units with tax money. this would bring them into the position to overrun Küche, but it would not help them keep up with us, or overtake us.

    however, this is not what you claim. you say it benefits them militarily, which won´t be true until they reach the MA and can build MIs and pikes.

    templar_x
     
  9. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    No, I said it will benefit them in empire growth and research! So in mid-term (of course not short-term; everything I said above is to be taken mid-term or even long-term), they'll have MI/Pikes, when the Küche is not ready for them.

    Otherwise I just say that all your points 1-3 are wrong and my view of them is right... :p

    1. is right, because this is how they geared their entire game, from choosing their initial research path (Iron instead of Philo) up to their alliance proposal right when they met us.
    2. when we start the first planning for the joint invasion, we will just take it for granted that we go south while they go north. We just make it appear so "natural", that they don't even think about that point.
    3. and this is simply right. I do not need to tell you, how powerful Republic is. The Küche has neither CoL nor Rep, and if they have to research that by themselves, the Eagles will easily have 30-40 turns advantage over them. Enough to blow them (Küche) out of the water when they (Eagles) reach Feudalism.
     
  10. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    :rolleyes:

    so "natural", sure. when you say that, do you believe i see the picture of our previous negotiations before my eyes?

    templar_x
     
  11. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    :p as well

    really, i am already asking for argument, such "it will be like that because i want to believe it"-arguments are not really leading anywhere.

    the fact is that each scenario bears its risks. of course there is NO WAY that will automatically mean victory for our team. do not try to depict any variant as the guarantee to get there.

    if your point were that the chosen path is RISKIER than the other, then we are on one line again.

    it possibly lets us continue any discussion with Calis´ sharp sword, rather than with d7 tongue, and that sooner. i like.

    templar_x
     
  12. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    If d7 will think realistically no way to fight vs dormons on another continent. Things depend on geography but anyway... If we will not cooperate with Eagles they will cooperate with Kuhe. Our advantage not that big and UUs not that good to ensure invasion.

    If Eagles accept t-x conditions they will be ripped by gpt and will be very weak for long period. That's why I am afraid they will decline t-x offer. I think they will reply with counter-proposal, that we consider...
    Untill then we should form research plan with Anarhos. I am afraid, however, that it will be little use.
    Their research rate lowest of 4 teams and we will support them through AA with very little return. Probably they will go to Great Library in a hope that it catapult their Sci.
    If it will be clear indication that it is the case we have to deal with that somehow.
    I may be wrong here, but anyway our "agreements" must be flexible enough to have opportunity to change partners without big penalty.
    It is hard to form plan now, for example we do not know about "second connection to another continent", will Eagles accept t-x offer, what final version of our Alliance agreement will be...
    One of the possibility is to go for Kuhe together with Eagles, we will have extra Lux and better start for next invasion.
    I think it is too early to make any detailed plan, but during negotiations we have to negotiate most profitable and perspective conditions for us.
     
  13. Memento

    Memento The World is mine

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    I will for quite some time what to write, but I have too little time.
    this back and forth is not good for us.

    a major handicap is the long nap anarchos with. This makes a (relatively simple) war impossible in the long run

    at the moment i´ve got to many scenarios in my head around. we need to slow a final decision.
    no matter how it looks.

    we don´t need a big invasion. 1st a little invasion is enough to slow them down enough.
     
  14. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    Memento -

    we made a decision already...

    however, when our negotiations with the Eagles will be about to come to an end, i do not oppose to do another vote.

    i have not heard anything that makes me change my mind though. my vote will be the same, seen as i think about it now.

    and due to the ultralong NAP, war only can be started by simply breaking that contract. no warning, nothing. but i have already prepared an explanation, which lists the causes and should help a bit not to damage your single players´ reputation too much by this.

    however, this is a team game, and therefore cannot be predetermined how one team member would play in a single game.

    templar_x
     
  15. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    So we wait until we have an answer from the Eagles and then decide what to tell the Anarchos?
    (- Sign as is, but don't take seriously
    - Make counter-proposal
    - Tell them: no alliance, but only "research plan + trades", because they are too slow...:lol:)

    But I agree with Memento that we finally need to agree on a plan and follow it consistently. Emanuel Lasker said: "Better have an average plan and execute it vigorously than having several excellent plans and constantly switching back and forth between them".
     
  16. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    We have a plan, and even a majority for it, only you do not like it and thus still seem a bit distracted. :p

    :D t_x
     
  17. I. Larkin

    I. Larkin Deity

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    Where full text of Alliance exists?
    I'd like to make counter-proposal but what to?
    Where research plan with Anarchos?
    We must continue negotiation...
    Things depend what Eagles will answer, but with Anarchos we should make our mind before we give them Republic.
    After that, I believe, negotiation will be "one way only"...
     
  18. Lanzelot

    Lanzelot Moderator Moderator

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    No, despite reading your last couple posts, I still don't understand, what your plan is (or why it would be beneficial for us, or how we gain a long-term advantage by it)...
     
  19. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    could someone maybe post the tech costs for the AA and MA techs for that kind of map?

    if i am counting correctly, we will finish the AA -if acting together with the Anarchie- in about 25 turns! let us assume 10-15 more turns for the first MA tech, which was our plan anyway (we can say we are researching during that time, when in reality we are doing the build-up).

    that is probably still not enough time in my eyes to prepare for a strike. to walk over them, even when they are unprepared, i would expect that we need at least 15 MIs, or 20 swords, a few hoplites and a few ships, as well as about 5 horses. or alternatively simply about 30-40 horses, and a few ships, if we want that way.

    worth about 1000 shields or 3000 gold (1s=3g, correct?). we won´t have that in 25 turns.

    or do you think i am overestimating the necessary ressources here? i would not think so.

    so when do i see possible dates for an invasion, from a solely military standpoint and view, of any other nation:

    1. a mini-invasion of the lands of the Küche can take place any time after revolution, and should in my eyes follow our last foundings of somewhat useful towns (=our own half of the continent). since we need MM for that, i would say, 1-2 galleys with hoplites, maybe 1 archer, and maybe a horse, worth 90 to 180 shields, should sail to the other continent and cause havoc.
    a) in case we ally with the Eagles, we should of course send less than what the Anarchie sends against the Eagles, so that the Eagles will have it harder against the Küche... :devil:
    b) probably that is smarter anyway
    c) this is an invasion to solely delay their growth. no towns should be taken, only destroyed if the possibility arises. slaves are welcome.
    d) this should trigger our well-timed GA, to build libs, markets, and troops if we go that way
    theoretically this could take place from in <10 turns, when the Eagles research MM and go for that deal, on, plus another 10 turns to cross the ocean and deliver the troops. they could land in 20t from now. this will be a few turns into our young Republic. If we want to attack the Eagles, this is just the right time! but of course this will not get us the maximum out of GA, compared to a later point of time when we had more workers tasks turned into improvements. earlier effects are nothing to call bad however...

    2. in combination with the above invasion, we could possibly attack the Anarchos in about 40t. with money from the Eagles that we get from us selling them techs, and saving when we already could research a MA tech, we should have enough troops ready to strike.
    AGAIN: this still only works if they do NOT have smelled what is going on until then (which i believe is possible if we are smart), if they do not betray us (which i am much less sure of than Lanzelot is, but they will sure find lots of words for it, and he might even be very understanding towards them then), and if they thus do not have a STANDING ARMY at that point of time.
    dedication of worker turns for turns towards the Anarchie is important. only the north route probably could be finished by the time. the south therefore should only be secured against a counter-attack, 2 NMs should suffice.

    3. if the first of the above takes place later, and the 2nd not at all at this time, we could expect at about t50-t60 (we need 10 turns to get them there!) from now to be prepared for a large-scale invasion of the other continent in which we want to take the Küche out to need, like:
    7 NM, 20 MIs, 5 horses, 3 settlers, 3 workers, 2 archers, 20 galleys (!) about 1.700 shields.
    a) the many galleys this operation requires for me speaks for a later invasion and a sooner take-over of the own continent
    b) if we are at war with the Eagles at this point of time, add 10 galleys minimum to guide the ship stack. high losses are to be expected, which Lanzelot does not take into account, if we go to war with the other continent. there is no other route there probably, so they exactly now where to wait for us.
    c) this seems to make so much more sense at the end of the MA or the beginning of the IA, when we still have an advantage over the other continent then, which of course is necessary to keep.

    4. if we therefore delay the invasion of the other continent and still do not want to strike on our continent so early, there should be another time window to take our continent right before gunpowder. by then all our lands should be settled and improved a bit more, so the delay of a GA (caused by the Küche) could make this better usable. we could still finish the conquest of our continent on time so that we can prepare an invasion of the other with fregates, galleons muskets and cavs.
    for this scenario, with our stronger economy, we should until then go the upper tech route, and the Anarchie does Feud, Eng, Inv.

    Lanzelot can add the endfight variant, which will take place later against a Sci-Comm opponent, which does not sound to me like that would be the better plan. Time is playing for them...

    my preference is 1+2, or a delayed 1+4 only slightly behind.

    an invasion with galleys, if we go fight the Eagles, does not make sense to me. it is so much better to fight overseas when we have ships that can cross the ocean, so they do not know where we land. just imagine D-Day if the Germans had known where the allies would land - a massacre!

    templar_x
     
  20. templar_x

    templar_x usually walks his talks

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    another important information if we take the military route and finish this game by the end of the MA/beginning of the IA:

    then of course we should build at least one less tundra town in our sw/s. like the one the by the fish in the sw should then surely stand on the hill, and not on the bg.

    this is why i would like to get this into the contract, with whoever we make it, in case that we decide to play this as a science or pseudo-science game. because of course the settling pattern and other decisions (how many libs to build!) relies heavily on the expected VC.

    templar_x
     

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