Notes on the Decline of a Great Nation

[warpus]

Would anyone agree with me that whether or not we decline is immaterial comsidering we've done a great deal (with our allies) to make the 'world order' well suited to our economic, political and strategic goals?

Surely this is more important long term than any temporary measure of success or decline. The fundamentals of the world system aren't changing and they heavily favor our interests.

It depends.

Most of the world has now embraced the global economic system that the U.S. used to lead and still probably does. You could say a similar thing about American culture.

So yes, a lot of the world has now followed in step behind America in various spheres, but.. the U.S. is in a very bad shape financially, you guys don't rank #1 in many categories anymore (best place to live, best place to do business, etc.).. the only one I can really think of is your military.

I'm not sure if the U.S. is in a decline.. it's more like it's attempting to come to terms with a bit of a self-identity crisis and is going through a bit of a rough patch. The decision the nation makes in the next 2 decades will have a huge impact on the next century and Americans role and importance in it.

Unfortunately the country is incredibly polarized politically and the political discourse between your citizens is mostly a joke. I don't really see the country moving very much forward, unless the people in the way make way.. and hey, maybe demographics will make a big enough shift to make that happen, but I have my doubts.

 

[Joecoolyo]

If current trends continue China will overtake the American economy in the next decade. Your military advantage may take longer, but you will have too understand your number 2 from then on out. Thats not "neo-yellow scare stuff" it's the reality.

Like how the actual yellow scare panned out?

wait

it didn't

its just a bunch of fear-mongering

China's slowing down, it can't ride its bubble forever. And its no where near as militarily capable as the United States, nor does it have the experience to boot.

That, along with the host of internal problems China has to deal with and I see an autocratic Japan, not a superpower, emerging in the next decade.

 

[Agent327]

There are certainly signs of decline, but just as certain there are signs of recovery. At any rate it's far too soon to issue any kind of verdict.

 

[Borachio]

Yes. If the US declines it really only has itself to blame. Look at the size of the place. All those resources. And military hardware. Watch out for the Latinization, though.

 

[Leoreth]

What do you think? Is America in a state of decline?

Fifty states of decline actually.

I can't help but feel that the Germans have a noticeable case of Schadenfreude with regards to the US. But what do they mean by "decline"? Decline from what? A temporary position as the sole "superpower"? Sandy hitting a "weakened country"? They're acting like the US is crumbling, and that it only needs a nudge to knock down the whole thing.

Well, I think it's rather Spiegel's attitude that's showing here than Germany's.

An obviously the USA are not in decline. It's just become harder to reconcile reality with the image Americans have of themselves, as the article notes. And frankly, if Americans didn't fling this image of themselves into the faces of others in the past, they wouldn't hear so much about their alleged decline now.

 

[timtofly]

Yes. If the US declines it really only has itself to blame. Look at the size of the place. All those resources. And military hardware. Watch out for the Latinization, though.

Are you trying to say that Spain will have the last laugh?

 

[Quackers]

Like how the actual yellow scare panned out?

wait

it didn't

its just a bunch of fear-mongering

China's slowing down, it can't ride its bubble forever. And its no where near as militarily capable as the United States, nor does it have the experience to boot.

That, along with the host of internal problems China has to deal with and I see an autocratic Japan, not a superpower, emerging in the next decade.

I don't even know why "yellow peril" is relevant. Back then it was fear of Chinese immigrants overtaking whitey in wages et al (arent american asians more educated and richer then white americans today? so it may of taken longer but it looked like it did pan out ), today its not a fear, just an acknowledgement that China will succeed the US as the number 1# economic nation by 2016 (According to the OECD). The only thing the yellow peril and today's situation has in common is the ethnic sthick and you have lazily equalised the two on that basis with not much thought. So tell me Joe, what do you know that the OECD doesn't which means China will stay as a mere Number 2#?


Sorry Joe, your usually really reasonable and impartial in the stuff you post. I'm afraid your wrong though. China was slowing down, it had a few dodgy quarters in the lastt couple of years but it's still catching up every single day. Military wise it will take far, far longer for them to catch up, but it's closing the gap every single year.

The facts back me up; you can't just ignore them because the idea of a 2nd best America is so distasteful in your mind.

 

[Murky]

It may be more of a case of stagnation for America than decline.

In many ways, I think China is blowing it because they are destroying their environment much faster than most of the developing world. They have one party rule and public dissent is quickly squashed so there are no environmental groups to block things like mountain top coal mining or hydraulic fracking. The government can screw around with the air, water and land all it wants and the people can't do much about it. If they complain they get sent to re-education camps.

 

[ParkCungHee]

here's another article from Spiegel Spengler online.

ftfy.

 

[Verbose]

I can't help but feel that the Germans have a noticeable case of Schadenfreude with regards to the US. But what do they mean by "decline"? Decline from what? A temporary position as the sole "superpower"? Sandy hitting a "weakened country"? They're acting like the US is crumbling, and that it only needs a nudge to knock down the whole thing.

Going by the Speigel article, the observation is there that Europe is declining even faster.

The US decline afaict from the article is as a model to emulate.

Europe isn't looking to the US for how to climb out of possibly and even steeper curve, since the US no longer looks like offering anything. What would we do that the US is currently doing that would be a good idea? There's still stuff the US HAS been doing that could/should be tried, but the current US trajectory? Nah...

Developing nations are looking to China and not the US, and China is in some ways surprisingly pleased with itself. Again the US seemingly isn't a model to emulate.

 

[ace99]

Yeah that's why the US unlike much of Europe is the only country whose economy is managing to grow. How's that austerity working out for you?

 

[Dachs]

What does "decline" even mean when applied to geopolitics or whatever anyway?

 

[WindFish]

Yeah that's why the US unlike much of Europe is the only country whose economy is managing to grow. How's that austerity working out for you?

you'll be able to tell us soon?

 

[strijder20]

Yeah that's why the US unlike much of Europe is the only country whose economy is managing to grow. How's that austerity working out for you?

Maybe because Europe's had it's time?

You could also say that China's economy is growing because it's an autocracy, that Rome fell apart because they controlled Sicily and that global warming is caused by an increase in the amount of lolcats pictures, but correlation does not imply causality.

 

[Quackers]

the evidence for lolcat-global-warming is irrefutable i'm afraid.

 

[ace99]

So you're suggesting austerity policies in the midst of an economic crisis are having little impact on depressing European growth rates?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/b...no-quick-answer-for-europe-economic-view.html

 

[strijder20]

So you're suggesting austerity policies in the midst of an economic crisis are having little impact on depressing European growth rates?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/b...no-quick-answer-for-europe-economic-view.html

Just pointing out that 'Europe's growth is declining, therefore austerity is bad' isn't a logical argument.

 

[ace99]

Just pointing out that 'Europe's growth is declining, therefore austerity is bad' isn't a logical argument.

Yeah, while you logically pointed out that "Europe's had it's time" as if that even means anything. I have sources, what do you have?

 

[strijder20]

Yeah, while you logically pointed out that "Europe's had it's time" as if that even means anything.

I'm not going to give a complete lecture on the reasons why countries/regios rise and fall here.

 

[ace99]

I'm not going to give a complete lecture on the reasons why countries/regios rise and fall here.

Then I'm going to disregard your comments.


Edit: God I feel like a teenage girl, goddamn internet.